This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could.

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Presentation transcript:

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 Speaker Event Date

2 Importance of Energy

3 EU Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Your Energy Use North America Household Personal Vehicle Industry Public Buildings Commercial Transport Direct Energy Use Indirect Energy Use 740,000 BTUs per day

4 Our Key Energy Challenges  Development of reliable and affordable energy – plus ongoing efficiency gains – are essential to meeting these challenges... Reducing poverty and improving living standards Supporting economic growth Minimizing impacts on the environment Maintaining energy security

5 Challenge: Meeting Basic Needs Electricity ~1.5 Billion People with no Electricity Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels ~ 2.5 Billion People with no Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels Available 2006 World Bank

6 Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDPDemand Trillion 2005$ GDPQuadrillion BTUs Trillion 2005$ GDP OECD Non OECD

7 Scale of Global Energy Is Enormous Drives 500,000 cars; using over 500,000 gallons of petroleum every day OECD population equals 1,200 such cities today -Growing to almost 1,300 by 2030 Consumes over 1,000 gallons of oil per minuteRequires two dedicated, world-scale power plantsNeeds 6 Million BTUs of energy every secondUses 150 tons of coal each hour On average, an OECD city of 1 million people: Today the world uses 15 billion BTUs of energy every second

8 ~300 Quads Quadrillion BTUsMBTU / 2005$ k GDPQuadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % Efficiency: Reducing Demand Growth Energy per GDPDemand -1.2% -1.5% Constant 2005 Level What demand would be without efficiency gains

– 2030 Growing Global Demand By Sector Quadrillion BTUs TransportationIndustrialRes/CommPowerGenEnergy Savings

OECDNon OECD Global Demand Quadrillion BTUs Electricity/ Heat Biomass Oil Coal Gas Solar Residential Energy Use MBTU / Household Residential / Commercial Demand Quadrillion BTUs By SectorResidential Billion Households OECD Non OECD ResidentialCommercial

11 Global Transportation Demand By Sector MBDOE Personal vs. Commercial MBDOE Rail Light Duty Vehicles OECD Non OECD Heavy Duty Vehicles Aviation Marine Commercial Personal Commercial

12 Cars and Population (millions) Personal Vehicle Fleet is Growing Vehicle PenetrationFleet by Car Type Million Cars Gasoline Diesel Advanced Cars Population US 2005 US 2030 Europe OECD 2005 Europe OECD 2030 China 2005 China 2030

13 Improving Today’s Vehicle % MPG Improvement Turbo Charging Cylinder Deactivation Camless Valves 6 Speed / 7 Speed Continuously Variable Improved Tires Aero - Dynamics A/C Efficiency Light Weight Materials Percent Engine Transmission Body & Accessories Total

14 By Region Quadrillion BTUs Non OECD OECD By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Coal Biomass Electricity/ Heat Global Industrial Demand By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Heavy IndChemEnergy IndOther

15 US Europe Other China Other AP Other AP By Region k TWhr Electricity Use is Growing Fast By Sector k TWhr Residential Other Industry Commercial Heavy Industry Transportation 40% By Generation Renewables Nuclear Oil Coal Gas

16 $60 per Ton CO2$30 per Ton CO2No CO2 Cost Electricity Generation Cost US Baseload, Startup Cents/kWhr CoalGasNuclearWindCoal + CCSGas + CCSSolar

17 Global Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Power Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Hydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels

18 Global Energy Demand and Supply Quadrillion BTUs 2005 – % 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 2.3% 2.2% 9.6% Demand and Supply Total Energy Growth Energy Savings OilCoalGasBiomassNuclearHydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels Non OECD OECD Non OECD

19 ~27 ~28 ~34 ~37 OPEC Crude Liquids Demand Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate Canada Oil Sands Other Petroleum Global Liquids Supply Grows Global Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE Biofuels OPEC Non-OPEC 2005 Supplies 2030 Base/Adds

20 Gas Supply and Demand Balance Conventional Unconventional Imports Pipeline United States BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD LNG LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas

21 Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent Energy Information Agency Railways & Steamships Canals Telegraph Coal Mining Personal Vehicles Wood & Coal Heating Rail Freight Passenger Flights Electrification Oil Prod & Refining Telephone Air Conditioning Nuclear Power Natural Gas in Homes Road Freight Deepwater & Arctic Cell Phones & PCs Shale Gas & Oil Sands Wind Hybrid Vehicle WoodCoalHydroNuclearRenewablesGasOil

22 Coal Oil Gas Billion Tons Power Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Global Energy Demand & CO 2 Emissions Demand Quadrillion BTUs CO 2 Emissions Coal Gas Oil Other Average Growth / Yr % Average Growth / Yr %

23 CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons Emissions per Capita Tons / Person Emissions per GDP Tons / 2005$ k GDP OECD Non OECD OECDNon OECDOECDNon OECD

24 MBTU / 2005$ k GDP OECD Transitions to Lower Emissions Energy per GDPChange in CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons CO 2 Content (Tons CO 2 / MBTU) Reducing CO 2 Content Increasing Efficiency

25 Integrated Energy Solutions Now billion people Global economic linkages Disparate living standards Enormous energy needs Environmental gains & concerns Growing technology use & focus 8 billion people Non OECD leads economic growth Less poverty; living standards improve Global energy needs up one-third Progress on environmental goals Significant advances in technology Increase Efficiency Expand Supply Mitigate Emission s Mitigate Emissions Expand Supply Increase Efficiency Technology

26