Economic Outlook January 2013 Financial Executives International – Annual Economic Meeting January 23, 2013 Alexander Heil, PhD, Chief Economist Economics.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Outlook January 2013 Financial Executives International – Annual Economic Meeting January 23, 2013 Alexander Heil, PhD, Chief Economist Economics Unit Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

Our Agenda for Today  Review of Current Economic Indicators  Regional Economic Projections  Building up to Forecasts  Fiscal Cliff Assumptions [subject to change]  Assessment of Impact of Hurricane Sandy  Q&A Slide 2

January Where do we stand now? Slide 3  More promising headline data  Consumer Spending  Housing  Policy Actions  Europe ECB policy action  QE3  But significant risks remain  Europe  Fiscal Cliff / Debt Ceiling  China

GDP vs. Final Sales Slide 4

Home Prices are moving … up Slide 5

Americans are buying cars … Slide 6

Durable Goods Orders at Pre-Recession Level Slide 7

Corporate Profits Slide 8

Retail Sales dip … then recover Slide 9

Stagnating Real Wages Slide MHI for US = $50K – same as 1996!

Weekly Unemployment Claims Slide 11

Employment – Monthly Change Slide 12

Long-Term Unemployment Slide 13

GDP vs. VMT Slide 14

PA Pulse Transportation Index Slide 15

18-County Port Authority Region Slide 16

Employment Recoveries in NY & NJ Counties Slide 17 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

County Level Employment Projections Slide 18 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

NY Counties Employment by Sector Slide 19 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

NY County Industry Structure at Recovery Slide 20 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

NJ County Employment by Sector Slide 21 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

NJ County Industry Structure at Recovery Slide 22 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

PA Region Employment by Sector Slide 23 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

NY Counties – Industry Employment Projections Slide 24 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

Slide 25 NJ Counties – Industry Employment Projections Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

So what about the Fiscal Cliff …? Slide 26

Payroll Tax Rate – Employee Portion Slide 27 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

Federal Spending Slide 28 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

Retail Sales Slide 29 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

Consumer Spending Slide 30 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

So what about the Labor Market …? Slide 31

Labor Force Participation Rate Slide 32 Minus 3+% Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

US Unemployment Rate Slide 33 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

National Employment Slide 34 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

So what about the Housing Market …? Slide 35

Housing Sector Slide 36 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

Home Sales Slide 37 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

So what about the Federal Reserve …? Slide 38

Federal Reserve Policy Slide 39 QE3 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

So what about overall economic growth …? Slide 40

US Real GDP Growth Slide 41 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

And the regional economy …? Slide 42

Total Regional Employment Slide 43 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

PA Region Income Trend Slide 44 The Fiscal Cliff … Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

PA Region Office-based Employment Slide 45 Decline in Office Employment Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

Regional Economic Growth Slide 46 Source: Oxford Economics Macro Model, run by PRDD

Economic Impacts of Hurricane Sandy How should we be thinking about economic assessments?

Sandy’s Economic Impact Slide 48 Hurricane Sandy Damaged AssetsLost Output Buildings & contents Infrastructure Vehicles RebuildAbandon Manufacturing Delayed services RecoverableLost Travel time Energy costs Some services Some wages Temporary Hit to GDP Permanent Hit to GDP

The Rebuild Decision Slide 49 Rebuild Damaged Assets LocalFederal Higher Productivity How?Whose Money? Net Regional Stimulus Replace & Improve Simple Replacement Diverted from Other Projects Higher Insurance Premiums

The Abandon Decision Slide 50 Abandon Damaged Assets Housing/Businesses Infrastructure Productivity Loss Risk Reduction

Frequency:Assume $50 billion cost/storm Present Value Cost: 100 years$11 billion 25 years$62 billion 5 years$316 billion Present Value of Damages Depends on Storm Frequency and Damage Level Slide 51 Assumes 3% discount rate

Any Questions? Alexander Heil, PhD, Chief Economist Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey 233 Park Avenue South, 11th Floor, New York, NY Slide 52 Economic Outlook January 2013