Workshop on the Criteria to establish projections scenarios Sectoral projection guidance: Transport Mario Contaldi, TASK-GHG Emanuele Peschi, TASK-GHG Ankara, March 2016

Outline Source description Economic assumptions: Activity data projections Technological assumptions Emission factor projections GHG projection indicators Source specific QA/QC Discussion 2

Source description Mobile sources produce GHG emissions of: CO2, CH4 and N2O GHG emissions origin from: combustion of various fuel types. Transport is part of Energy Combustion (1A) source category. 1A3 Transport: – 1A3a Civil Aviation – 1A3b Road Transportation – 1A3c Railways – 1A3d Water-borne Navigation – 1A3e Other Transportation – 1A4c iii Fishing (mobile combustion) – 1A5 a,b Non specified stationary and mobile Each of these source categories has several subcategories. Detailed definitions of the above are provided in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines 3

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General Points for the Calculation of GHGs Projections Projection (methodologies) should be as consistent as possible with the (methodologies) for the estimation of annual GHG inventories. Projections of CO2 emissions are best calculated on the basis of the amount and type of fuel combusted (fuel sold) and its carbon content (all Tiers). Estimation of CH4 and N2O emissions (higher Tiers, key category) require more technology specific/vehicle category information. 5

Activity data projections - information needed To ensure consistency most recent GHG inventory for: – Historical activity data – Projections must start from latest inventory year General information needed: – Population (in absolute numbers) – GDP (absolute, per sector in constant prices) – These data should be cross-checked with the same data used in other sectors Information needed for GHG projections from transport sector depend on the Tier level. 6

Description of TIERs Tier 1: refer to the results of an international energy model (EU, IEA) Tier 2: use a detailed breackdown of circulating fleet projection, subdivided by fule type (diesel, petrol, LPG) and scope (cars, LDV, HDV). Some specific technological data can be find in the Tremove database Tier 3: use a national transport model 7

Emission Factor projections 2A-2D Projections of CO2 emissions are best calculated on the basis of the amount and type of fuel combusted and its carbon content (all Tiers) 8

Activity data projections – Tier 1 The projections will be derived based on the latest historic inventory Tier 1 assumes that vehicle type split over the subcategories remains the same over time. Data requirements: Final energy consumption in transport per transport mode, per fuels (TJ) Could be derived from European energy model, at the moment it is PRIMES or other models which generate this Proportional technology split in latest historical year. 9

Activity data projections – Tier 2 Tier 2 uses similar approach as Tier 1 but includes more detail information: More detailed technology representation E.g. for road transport: – The car fleet is represented by purpose (passenger/freight), per – fuel technology, size, age – Total kilometers by passenger cars, Mpkm – Freight transport (all modes), Mtkm – Driving patterns could be differentiated between rural, urban a highway and trip purposes TREMOVE model could be used to derive these information 10

Activity data projections – Tier 3 Tier 3: Tier 3 is defined as any methodology that is more detailed than Tier 2: – When a national detailed transport model is available it should be used. – The underlying methodology / assumption and other relevant information should be appropriately reported Projection team should ensure consistency between fuel used and km driven 11

Emission factor projections general information 12 EFs for CO2 EFs directly follow the fuel specifications – energy efficiency included in lower energy demand EFs are based on the carbon content of the fuel EFs for other GHG The projections of other GHG EFs reflect technical characteristics of future technology development (emission control technology).

Emission factor projections It is a good practice to develop an emission factor as detailed as possible: – EF per fuel (kg/TJ) – EF per vehicle type – EF per technology type – EF per road type (highway, rural, urban) Projected EFs are based on most recent GHG inventories Tier 1: The EF projections assume that EFs do not change over time Tier 2: The EFs are extrapolated by MS from historic values and reflect the technology development Tier 3: It uses more detailed country specific technology developments 13

GHG projection indicators Indicators are the data which represent the final result of the projection Values for indicators need to be estimated for each year of the projection years Regulation 525/2013, Indicators for projections to monitor and evaluate progress with PAMs: Passenger car CO2 (ktCO2 / M pkm) = – CO2 emissions from passenger cars, 1A3bi (kt) / Number of kilometers by passenger cars (Mpkm) Freight transport CO2 (ktCO2 / Mtkm)= – CO2 emission from freight transport (all modes), 1A3bii and 1A3biii (kt) / Freight transport (all modes) (Mtkm) 14

Source specific QA/QC “General” QA/QC Checking GHG projections from transport against the historical time series for AD and EFs Sector specific QA/QC: Ensure the consistency of the transport national model with the statistical data Checking input and output data (e.g. energy consumption in transport sector) against data in international models/sources such as PRIMES, WEO, TREMOVE Ensure consistency between fuel used and kilometers driven Ensure that all remaining transport activities are included: other transportation (1A3e), fishing (mobile activities) (1A4ciii) and activities not otherwise reported (1A5a,b) 15

Discussion points Suggestion on what tier level can be applied in the case of Turkey? Separation of transport modes (as in inventory) versus split between passenger and freight transport. Vkm versus Pkm Treatment of bio-fuels use in the projections experience with the European models (PRIMES, TREMOVE, etc) availability 16