All about China ?

 A: Peterman ran off to Burma  B: Isn’t it Myanmar now ?  C: Myanmar…isn’t that the discount pharmacy ?  D: An exotic Buddhist land  E: Ire of Asia  F: A poster child for 21 st Century ills  G: Longtime military-ruled country  H: A failing, failed state

 New Economic Frontier – IMF  Asian Tiger – UN  The last golden destination in SEA – Tran Bac Ha, Vietnamese banker  Myanmar is making a lot of the right moves to revitalize its economy – ADB  A country is being on a journey – EU’s Catherine Ashton.  We fully recognize and embrace the progress that has taken place and we will continue our policy of engagement – Hillary Clinton

 พม่าเขาเปิดประเทศแล้วนะ  มีเลือกตั้งแล้ว  เป็นประชาธิปไตยแล้ว  มีแก๊ส มีน้ำมัน  เขาต้องเจริญกว่าไทยแน่เลย  เมืองไทยเรา โอ๊ย ไม่อยากพูดเลย

 Agents of change  Domestic factors Obsolete political setting Economic determination Growing civil society Demand of peace and democracy  International pull factors Rising China International blockade New regional power arrangement

 Mainland South East Asia  West of China  East of India  In bay of Bengal  Connecting India to South East Asia  Connecting China to Indian Ocean

 Tradition of isolation  Political setback  Economic downturn  Civil war  Military suppression

 History background  Imperial Era ( )  Colonial Era ( )  Democratic Republic ( )  Military Rule ( ) Period of isolation ( = 26)  Quasi Democracy (2011-at present)

 Under Ne Win regime  Military dictatorship  Burmese way to socialism  Nationalism  Anti-China  Anti-India  Political isolation  Economic isolation  Bi-polar world  Non-Alignment policy

 Return of power play politics after independence  Short Democratic life (14 years)  Unsettle conflicts with minorities 60 years old civil war  Harsh military rule  Demand for democracy 1988 student uprising 2007 saffron revolution 2008 Constitution

 1947 Constitution prepared under British empire  1962 Ne Win overthrew the 1947 Const.  1974 Second Constitution was implemented ; making seven states for minorities; seven division for Burmese  1988 A coup after uprising to form military junta  1990 (May) General election won by NLD

 1990 (July) the junta refused to transfer power to NLD but transform the newly elected General Assembly to a constitution drafting body  1992 the announcement of National Convention to draft new constitution.  1993 (Jan.) the first session of National Convention started and suspended time to time  1993 Slorc formed USDA

 1995 NLD was expelled from NC  1996 Slorc adjourned following the departure of NLD members  1996 main basic principles of the future constitution believed to be done  1997 Slorc changed name into State Peace and Development Council – SPDC  2003 ASSK was attacked by USDA militia, prompted international pressure

 August 30, 2003  December 15, 2003 an attempt in Thailand to have ‘Bangkok Process’ to help justify Nhin Nyunt’s road map  Process to reconvene National Convetion was formed Thein Sein was named as Chairman of National Convention Convening Commission

 (1) Reconvening of the National Convention that has been adjourned since  (2) After the successful holding of the National Convention, step by step implementation of the process necessary for the emergence of a genuine and disciplined democratic system.  (3) Drafting of a new constitution in accordance with basic principles and detailed basic principles laid down by the National Convention.  (4) Adoption of the constitution through national referendum.  (5) Holding of free and fair elections for Pyithu Hluttaws (Legislative bodies) according to the new constitution.  (6) Convening of Hluttaws attended by Hluttaw members in accordance with the new constitution.  (7) Building a modern, developed and democratic nation by the state leaders elected by the Hluttaw; and the government and other central organs formed by the Hluttaw.

 Khin Nyunt was arrested Oct.2004  2005 Road map continued  2005 (Nov.) new capital city of Nay Pyi Taw was set up  2007 ASSK house arrest was extended another year  2007 saffron revolution  2008 (Feb) draft of constitution finalized  2008 (May) referendum to endorse the constitution

 November 7, 2010 General Election, first ever in 20 years  Rare multi-party election in Myanmar  1990  1960  1956  1951

 Openness Free political prisoners Media Relaxation More political freedom  Political dialogue Talk with Aung San Suu Kyi NLD political role  Peace talk Cease-fire agreement

 Failure of Burmese way to Socialism  Rice bowl of Asia came to an end  Mismanagement of economic September 1987, withdrew Kyat banknotes Replaced 100, 75, 35, 25 With 45, 90 9 is lucky number for Ne Win The decision ignited student anger and uprising

 Under State Law and Order Restoration (Slorc)  Economic open up  Foreign investment  Privatization  Foreign trade  Border trade  Confusing forex

 Open up and liberate economy  Kyat currency crisis Managed float Unifying  Ease of trade restriction Balancing Act  The 1988 Investment Law amendment Allow 100 % foreign investment Production for domestic consumption allowed  Structural reform With IMF assistance

 Create economic instrument to handle macro economy  Create money market  Stop printing money  Issue treasury bonds to adjust deficit  Improving tax policy; emphasizing direct tax, rather indirect to protect the poor  Further privatization  Attract foreign direct investment

 Agriculture  Live stock & Fishery  Forestry  Mining  Energy  Manufacturing  Hotel & Tourism  Infrastructure

 British Empire’s divide & rule policy  Aung San’s Panglong Agreement 1947 Kachin, Chin and Shan signed with Aung San Full autonomy in internal administration for the Frontier Areas is accepted in principle. (article V) The agreement has never been implement  Ethnic groups took up weapon against Burma since U Nu and later Ne Win until now

 End of communist movement  Cease-fire in 1990s  15 groups signed in  Economic concession was granted  Drug/sin business involvement  Military offensive and forced cease-fire  Human right supression  Refugees

 Border Guard Force policy failed  Thein Sein offered new truce  17 groups involved  Kachina left behind  Three level of peace negotiation State level Union level Parliament

 Sanction & blockade  Chinese options  Asean engagement  India’s reaction

 1948 US recognized Myanmar independence  US provided economic assistance to Myanmar & covert aid to KMT against Chinese communist  1953 Richard Nixon visited Myanmar  1955 PM U Nu visited Washington  1966 Ne Win visited US and Washington expressed its understanding to Myanmar’s non-alignment policy

 1974 US-Myanmar signed counter-narcotic pact  1988 (Sep) amid pro-democracy uprising US Congressman Stephen Solarz, Chairman of lower house’s sub-committee on Asia- Pacific visited Myanmar  1990 US cut economic and military aid to Myanmar and downgrade relation after the junta refused to transfer power to NLD

 US pressure after 1988  EU sanction 1989  US cut off military aid, downgrade relations 1990  Clinton banned all US investment in Myanmar 1997  Asian Financial Crisis 1997  Accession to Asean 1997  Bush sanctions 2003 after another arrest of ASSK

 From historical perspective, China regarded Myanmar as a gate way to India  A strong connection as immediate neighbor; 2.5 Burmese have Chinese ancestors  In modern time, Beijing sought ties with Myanmar to contain KMT  Remarkable point was in 1954 when PM Zhou Enlai visited Myanmar to reaffirm principle of peaceful coexistance

 Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity  Mutual non-aggression  Non-interference in each other’s internal affairs  Equality and mutual benefit  Peaceful coexistence.

 1963 Myanmar refused to join China’s block in the Soviet-Sino rival  China supported Communist Party of Burma  1967 anti-Chinese riot and downgrade of diplomatic relations  rapprochement, but Myanmar was still isolated  1980s at the end of Cold War, Beijing ended support to communist in Myanmar

 : a common attitude against western valued democracy; suppression on student uprisings in two countries  1988 End of isolated Ne Win’s Burmese way to socialism, massacre to student uprising  1989 Beijing did its part at Tiananmen Square  Enhancing all aspects of tie

 1988 Border trade 1989 and 1995, bilateral more than doubled, from US $314 million to $767 million  1989 Military assistance  1989 First high ranking visit by Than Shwe  1990 Weapon purchasing US$2 billion in arms supply  1992 Narcotic control pact  1993 the beginning of infrastructure development and investment  1998 Chinese financial support to Myanmar development projects

 Chinese migration 1998  Chinese media 1998  Chinese boats to sail in Irrawaddy to Yangon 1998  Border special economic zone 2000  2001 High ranking visit by Jiang Zemin visited Myanmar  Top foreign investment in Myanmar with $ billion (34.5 % of total FDI)

 Geo-strategic interest  Security interest  Supply of raw material  Trans-Myanmar oil corridor  China's top three oil firms - CNPC, Sinopec Group and CNOOC Ltd - all operate in Myanmar

 In mining sector: the China Nonferrous Metal Mining Co. has the majority stake, financed by Chinese state banks, in the US$800 million joint development of the Tagaung Taung nickel deposit, Burma’s largest mining project.  In hydropower, the massive 7,110 MW Tasang Dam on the Salween River in Shan State, which will cost $6 billion to build, is majority owned and being constructed by the state- owned China Gezhouba Group Corporation.  In oil and gas, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has secured exclusive purchasing rights to the coveted Shwe gas reserves offshore of Arakan State, and owns the majority stake in the parallel natural gas and oil pipelines it will construct across Burma to Nanning and Kunming in China; these projects will provide the Burmese regime between US$1 and $2 billion of revenue per year for decades to come.

 1997 Asean member  US opposed  Flexible engagement  2003 ASSK incident/Asean pressure Bangkok Process  2005 Asean chair forego  2007 saffron and Asean stance  2011 decision for 2014 Myanmar Asean Chair  2013 Myanmar SEA Game

 1990 Look East Policy  1991 Stop criticism on Myanmar  1994 More trade, border check point Manipur  2000 Myanmar- India road connection  2010 Than Shwe visited India to talk security and energy

 Middle East  Southern tier of former Soviet Union  Growing influence of India and China in Indian Ocean  Maritime power US China India

 Move 60 per cent of force presence to the Pacific  Seeking cooperation from former and familiar bases  Thailand  Vietnam  The Philippines  Singapore

 We can’t let Burma become a Chinese province – Sen. Jim Webb (2010) Sen. Jim Webb/John McCain # Ass. Sec of State Kurt Campbell  Webb visited Than Shwe 2009  Latest visit before Songkran 2012  In 2010 Webb at odds with Kurt Campbell how strongly to engage with Myanmar  Hillary Clinton initially inclined to try but ultimately yielded to pressure

 Hillary Clinton visit  Suspension of Chinese dam  Ease of US sanction/Webb called for more/upgrade of diplomatic ties  EU sanction suspension  Australia eased financial restriction  Japanese debt waived  World Bank set up office  Full engagement to the world

 Border management  Repatriation of refugee  Peaceful border  Counter-narcotic  Economic engagement

 Drifting away from China  "We certainly have an interest in what is happening in Myanmar as it might affect peace and tranquility in our own border area," Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai (April 25, 2012)  China has never seen its friendly and cooperative relationship with Myanmar, or any other country, as excluding the interests of the United States, and we hope the United States also approaches this matter in the same spirit.

 US  China  India  EU  Japan  Asean  Thailand  etc

Thank You Chezu tinbade