Medicine Hat / Alberta Economic & Housing Market Review & Forecast Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA – Alberta February 2016

total net migration - quarterly Alberta Net Migration Source: Statistics Canada

Quarterly year-over-year net change Alberta Total Net Migration Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta - Total Net Migration Source: Statistics Canada, Forecast: CHBA-AB net migration - annual

Population Estimate Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Economic Region number of persons (,000s) Source: Statistics Canada

number of persons Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Region Components of Population Growth Source: Statistics Canada

Labour Force vs. Employment Alberta (thousands – seasonally unadjusted) Source: Statistics Canada (# of persons employed)

number of persons employed (,000s) Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Region Source: Statistics Canada

Annual Average Employment Lethbridge - Medicine Hat Region number of persons employed (,000s) Source: Statistics Canada

Unemployment Rate % Source: Statistics Canada

number of persons (SA) Source: Statistics Canada (receiving regular benefits) Employment Insurance Recipients Alberta

Source: CIBC / Angus Reid Percentage of Canadians who feel positive about their current financial situation

Avg. Weekly Earnings Alberta (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta Inflation Rate CPI – y/yr % chg Source: Statistics Canada

Source: Statistics Canada (Bank of Canada) Five-year Mortgage Rate Monthly average per cent (conventional/posted)

Source: CMHC Minimum Down Payment by Purchase Price Rules Change for Insured Mortgages

Source: Statistics Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales Alberta units – 3 month moving avg. (unadjusted)

Source: Statistics Canada Energy and Petroleum Products Price Index 2010 = 100

International Exports from Alta ($ Millions) Source: Statistics Canada

Farm Product Prices Alta Livestock Source: Statistics Canada $/100 wt

Farm Product Prices Alberta Source: Statistics Canada $/metric tonne

6 month moving average (x $1,000) Source: Statistics Canada Value of New Residential Investment Alberta - Current Prices

X $1,000 Alberta Renovation (residential investment ) Source: Statistics Canada (trend = 4 qtr. Moving avg.)

Building Permit Values ($000) Alberta Source: Statistics Canada

units (,000s) Alberta Housing Starts Urban Centres Source: CMHC

Total Housing Starts Alberta – All Areas units (annual) Source: CMHC, Forecast: CHBA-AB

Alberta Housing Starts units Source: CMHC, Forecast: CHBA-AB

Total Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units Source: CMHC

Single-detached Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

completed and unabsorbed single & semi-detached units Medicine Hat - Low-Density Inventory Source: CMHC (inc. show homes)

6 month moving average Source: CMHC Avg. Single-detached Absorbed Price Medicine Hat CA

share of market Single-detached Absorptions Medicine Hat CA - ($,000) Source: CMHC

Multi-family Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

Multi-family Housing Starts Medicine Hat CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

completed and unabsorbed row + apartment units Medicine Hat – Multi-family Inventory Source: CMHC

units (SAAR – 3 month mvg. avg.) Residential MLS ® Sales Alberta Source: CREA

units Source: AREA Residential MLS ® Sales Medicine Hat

Residential MLS ® Active Listings Medicine Hat Region units Source: MHREB

MLS ® Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio Medicine Hat Region per cent (6-month moving avg.) Source: MHREB

6 month moving average Source: CREA/AREA Residential MLS ® Average Sale Price Medicine Hat

annual & year-to-date Source: CREA Residential MLS ® Average Sale Price Medicine Hat

Apartment Vacancy Rates Source: CMHC per cent (October surveys)

Average Apartment Rent Two-Bedroom Unit, October Surveys Source: CMHC $/month

Source: CMHC (units common to both surveys) per cent change (October surveys) Annual Rent Increase Two-bedroom apartment

Upside Mortgage rates to remain “affordable.” New & existing home inventories appear manageable. New MF inventory looks tight. Activist gov’ts in Edmonton & Ottawa will spend on infrastructure. Inflation remains “benign”(for now). Agriculture sector holding up. Low C$ helping exports to US. Offshore investors see bargains & safe havens in Canadian RE. Downside Reduced migration from the ROC. Spending cuts in the energy sector will hamper job creation. Weaker income growth. Bigger down payments needed on homes priced over $500,000. Tighter credit conditions as lenders become more cautious in Alta. Rental markets have softened. Uncertainly over carbon taxes (activist gov’ts). Consumer confidence eroded. Falling C$ causing price pressures. For Discussion Medicine Hat Outlook for 2016

Medicine Hat Housing Review Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA – Alberta