Chapter 11 Sample Surveys

How do we gather data? Surveys Opinion polls Interviews Studies –Observational –Retrospective (past) –Prospective (future) Experiments

Population the entire group of individuals that we want information about

Census a complete count of the population

Why would we not use a census all the time? 1)Not accurate 2)Very expensive 3)Perhaps impossible 4)If using destructive sampling, you would destroy population Breaking strength of soda bottles Lifetime of flashlight batteries Safety ratings for cars Look at the U.S. census – it has a huge amount of error in it; plus it takes a long to compile the data making much of the data obsolete by the time we get it. Suppose you wanted to know the average weight of the white-tail deer population in Texas – would it be feasible to do a census? Since taking a census of any population takes time, censuses are VERY costly to do.

Sample A part of the population that we actually examine in order to gather information Use sample to generalize to population

Sampling design refers to the method used to choose the sample from the population

Sampling frame a list of every individual in the population

Consists of n individuals from the population chosen in such a way that –every individual has an equal chance of being selected –every set of n individuals has an equal chance of being selected Simple Random Sample (SRS) Suppose we were to take an SRS of 100 EHS students – put each students’ name in a hat. Then randomly select 100 names from the hat. Each student has the same chance to be selected. Not only does each student has the same chance to be selected – but every possible group of 100 students has the same chance to be selected! Therefore, it has to be possible for all 100 students to be juniors in order for it to be an SRS.

Stratified random sample population is divided into homogeneous groups called strata SRS’s are pulled from each strata Homogeneous groups are groups that are alike based upon some characteristic of the group members. Suppose we were to take a stratified random sample of 100 EHS students. Since students are already divided by grade level, grade level can be our strata. Then randomly select 25 students from each grade level.

Systematic random sample select sample by following a systematic approach randomly select where to begin Suppose we want to do a systematic random sample of EHS students - number a list of students (There are approximately 2000 students – if we want a sample of 100, 2000/100 = 20) Select a number between 1 and 20 at random. That student will be the first student chosen, then choose every 20 th student from there.

Cluster Sample based upon location randomly pick a location & sample all there Suppose we want to do a cluster sample of EHS students. One way to do this would be to randomly select 10 classrooms during 2 nd period. Sample all students in those rooms.

Multistage sample select successively smaller groups within the population in stages SRS used at each stage To use a multistage approach to sampling EHS students, we could first divide 2 nd period classes by level (AP, Honors, Advanced, etc.) and randomly select 4 second period classes from each group. Then we could randomly select 5 students from each of those classes. The selection process is done in stages.

Bias favors certain outcomes Is not the same as sample error or sample variability Anything that causes the data to be wrong! It might be attributed to the researchers, the respondent, or to the sampling method.

Identify the sampling design 1)The Educational Testing Service (ETS) needed a sample of colleges. ETS first divided all colleges into groups of similar types (small public, small private, etc.) Then they randomly selected 3 colleges from each group. Stratified random sample

2) A county commissioner wants to survey people in her district to determine their opinions on a particular law up for adoption. She decides to randomly select blocks in her district and then survey all who live on those blocks. Identify the sampling design Cluster sampling

3) A local restaurant manager wants to survey customers about the service they receive. Each night the manager randomly chooses a number between 1 & 10. He then gives a survey to that customer, and to every 10 th customer after them, to fill it out before they leave. Identify the sampling design Systematic random sampling

Sources of Bias things that can cause bias in your sample cannot do anything with bad data

Voluntary response People chose to respond Usually only people with very strong opinions respond An example would be the surveys in magazines that ask readers to mail in the survey. Other examples are call- in shows, American Idol, etc. Remember, the respondent selects themselves to participate in the survey. Remember – the way to determine voluntary response is: Self-selection.

Convenience sampling Ask people who are easy to ask Produces biased results An example would be stopping friendly-looking people in the mall to survey. Another example is the surveys left on tables at restaurants - a convenient method! The data obtained by a convenience sample will be biased – however this method is often used for surveys & results reported in newspapers and magazines!

Undercoverage some groups of population are left out of the sampling process Suppose you take a sample by randomly selecting names from the phone book – some groups will not have the opportunity of being selected. People with unlisted phone numbers – usually high-income families People without phone numbers – usually low- income families People with ONLY cell phones, which is becoming more common.

Nonresponse occurs when an individual chosen for the sample can’t be contacted or refuses to cooperate telephone surveys 70% nonresponse People are chosen by the researchers, BUT refuse to participate. NOT NOT self-selected! This is often confused with voluntary response. Because of huge telemarketing efforts in the past few years, telephone surveys have a MAJOR problem with nonresponse. One way to help with the problem of nonresponse is to make follow- up contact with people who are not home when you first contact them.

Response bias occurs when the behavior of respondent or interviewer causes bias in the sample wrong answers Suppose we wanted to survey high school students on drug abuse and we used a uniformed police officer to interview each student in our sample – would we get honest answers? Response bias occurs when for some reason (interviewer’s or respondent’s fault) you get incorrect answers.

Wording of the Questions wording can influence the answers that are given connotation of words use of “big” words or technical words Questions must be worded as neutrally as possible to avoid influencing the response. The level of vocabulary should be appropriate for the population you are surveying – if surveying, say, young children, then you should avoid complex vocabulary. – if surveying doctors, then use more complex, technical wording.

Source of Bias? 1) Before the presidential election of 1936, FDR against Republican ALF Landon, the magazine Literary Digest predicting Landon winning the election in a 3-to-2 victory. A survey of 10 million people. George Gallup surveyed only 50,000 people and predicted that Roosevelt would win. The Digest’s survey came from magazine subscribers, car owners, telephone directories, etc. Undercoverage – (one possible answer) This was during the Great Depression. People who could afford magazines, telephones and cars at the time were mostly from high- income homes and thus mostly Republican.

2) Suppose that you want to estimate the total amount of money spent by students on textbooks each semester at SMU. You collect register receipts for students as they leave the bookstore during lunch one day. Convenience sampling – it takes little effort to catch students at the store or Undercoverage – students who buy books from on-line bookstores are not included.

3) To find the average value of a home in River Oaks, one averages the price of homes that are listed for sale with a realtor. Undercoverage – leaves out homes that are not for sale or homes that are listed with different realtors. (other answers are possible)