Annapolis Summit: A Guide for the Perplexed October 2007

Political Partner Political Entity Delivery CapabilityWillLegitimacy 1

Are Abu Mazen and Fayyad Partners? Fatah Internally Weak PA’s inability to fight terror Emergency Govt lacks Legitimacy Hamas controls Gaza & PLC Legitimacy of PLO? IL–PL Disagreement on Core Issues IL–PL Disagreement on Working Paper 2

Sequence of the Political Process Roadmap PSPB PSA “A PSPB is a trap”, (Feb 05) Package Deal (Oslo) PSA PL State Permanent Status Fragmentation & Dilution PSPB Permanent Status Fragment & Dilute 3

Significance of ‘All or Nothing’ Permanent Status Agreement No Agreement Economic Arrangements Security Agreement Borders and Settlements Water Sharing Jerusalem / Holy Places 4

Consequences of Failure Hamas in WB PA Collapse End of 2SSEnd of Abbas3 rd Intifada 5

The Collapse of the PA? Moment of Collapse Renewed Negotiations and Summit Chaos in the PA Logic of Implosion Mash'al: “If PA cannot protect our interests it can go to hell” Haniyeh" :Dissolution of the PA would be an option if the boycott continues” 6

Erosion of the Two State Solution Moment of Inversion “The idea of a 'Jewish state‘ in which Jews have exclusive privileges is rooted in another time and place. Israel, in short, is an anachronism” (Tony Judt) Political Deadlock Basic Delegitimization “Given what is happening today… is it even possible to build a viable Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza” (Terje Larsen) Is a PL State Viable? “The Combination of PA Institutional Decline and Israeli settlement expansion is creating a growing conviction…that the 2SS best days are behind it” (De-Soto) Renewed Negotiations and Summit 7

If They Can’t, Who Can? 8

Consequences of Failure Failure of Dream Team Renewal of Calls for PA Dissolution Collapse of PA International Inversion to 2SS ? End of Abu Mazen’s Political Career PL Inversion to 2SS / 2SS Unviable 9

Policy Options: Help the PA Survive SecurityTerritoryPoliticalEconomic Full Sovereign State Current PA Embassies, UN / WTO members Customs Envelope, PL currency Strengthen PA Forces Back to Sept 2000 lines 10