To better understand what factors influence public support for joining an international climate change treaty in China and the United States we use regression analysis. Probit Regression Model Discrete choice dependent variable, join =1 / otherwise = 0 The parameters β are estimated by maximum likelihood Regression Analysis Model Students: Brittany Flaherty, Hunter Hermes, Joy Larson, Shawn Peterson, Greg Sikowski & Helue Vazquez Valverde Faculty Mentor: Dr. Eric Jamelske, Dr. James Boulter & Dr. Won Jang Funding for this project was provided by the UWEC Blugold Commitment and International Fellows Program, UWEC Foundation, Xcel Energy-Eau Claire, and Northwestern Bank-Chippewa Falls University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire: Chippewa Valley Center for Economic Research & Development and Watershed Institute for Collaborative Environmental Studies Assessing American and Chinese Citizen Support for Joining an International Climate Change Treaty Climate change could be the single most important issue of our time. China and the United States share the highest importance related to potential climate change mitigation policies because they are the world’s two largest greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters and the two largest economies. Efforts to address climate change through international cooperation have largely taken place through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These negotiations have been highlighted by tensions between developed and developing countries regarding what actions to take and who should bear the costs. The Kyoto Protocol, passed in 1997 and entered into force by ratifying countries in 2005, did not call for GHG reductions by developing countries (non-annex I), thus placing the burden of change on developed nations (annex I). The fact that China was not required to reduce emissions under Kyoto was cited as an important determinant in the United States decision to not ratify this treaty. Despite some successes, the Kyoto Protocol has largely failed as a result of the differential treatment of developed and developing nations and the lack of United States and Chinese involvement. In fact, the relationship between China and the United States with respect to climate negotiations can best be described as somewhat adversarial. Because meaningful climate change action will require the cooperation and participation of both China and the United States, it is increasingly important to understand what Chinese and American citizens think about this issue. Thus, a better understanding of public support for climate policy action in both countries is of great interest. Introduction We conducted face-to-face surveys of Chinese adults and online surveys of Chinese college students between September and November The Chinese sample consists of 2,047 adults from four provinces (Beijing, Guangdong, Shaanxi and Sichuan) and 1,670 college students from five provinces (Beijing, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Shanghai and Sichuan) totaling 3,717 respondents. The response rates for the Chinese adult and college student samples were approximately 40% and 67% respectively. We also conducted online surveys of adults and college students in the United States over the same period. The United States sample consists of 1,306 adults from four states (CA, NE, RI and WI) and 2,335 college students from seven states (CA, CO, MD, NE, RI, SC and WI) totaling 3,641 respondents. The response rates for the United States adult and college student samples were approximately 9% and 67% respectively. Table 1 presents descriptive statistics for selected variables generated from survey responses for both samples. Sample sizes differ across variables because not everyone answered each survey question. The average age of respondents was just over 30 years old in both samples with a higher percentage of college students (64.1%) in the United States compared to China (44.9%). In the United States sample, 50.9% of respondents were male whereas 51.3% of Chinese respondents were male. Additionally, a larger percentage of respondents in the United States (16.2%) identified as a minority population compared to Chinese respondents (5.5%). Finally, a lower percentage of Chinese respondents (33%) had a bachelor’s degree compared to American respondents (63%). Method A general overview of our survey results show many significant differences between respondents in China and the United States. Chinese respondents place a greater importance on the environment. Chinese respondents show a greater belief that climate change is happening. United States respondents show a lower likelihood of seeing scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. United States respondents show a higher likelihood of being unconcerned about climate change. Overall, we conclude that compared to Americans, Chinese respondents are more accepting of the scientific consensus on the realities of human-caused climate change. In this poster we have shown that greater acceptance of climate change realities and a higher level of concern among Chinese respondents translates into greater support for joining an international climate change treaty compared to respondents in the United States. We have also shown that environmental and climate change awareness variables are positively correlated with support for joining an international climate change treaty in both countries. Finally we have shown that there are political differences in the United States with both Liberals and Moderates showing greater support for joining an international treaty compared to Conservatives. Our next research question examines how the differences found here impact the willingness-to-pay for climate change mitigation policy action among citizens in both China and the United States. Please see our second poster titled Using Contingent Valuation to Assess Public Willingness-to- Pay for Climate Change Mitigation in China and the United States for a presentation of the results from this extended research. Conclusion Our survey included questions about if climate change was happening and what was causing it as well as how concerned people were. Additionally, we asked questions about people’s perception of scientific consensus on climate change and its causes. Results from these questions show several striking differences between Chinese and American responses. (see Table 1). Chinese respondents place a greater importance on the environment. Chinese respondents show a greater belief that climate change is happening. United States respondents show a lower likelihood of seeing scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. United States respondents show a higher likelihood of being unconcerned about climate change. Our research question in this poster is, do these differences in climate change views translate into differing opinions regarding climate change policy? We asked respondents in both countries about international climate change policy in terms of the level of public support for joining an international climate treaty. Overview of Survey Results We asked two questions about joining an international treaty. The first question was unconditional while the second was conditional on the other country not participating. Should the United States join an international commitment to address climate change/global warming? 中国应当加入应对气候变化 / 全球变暖的国际承诺吗？ o No 否 o Yes 是 o I am not sure 不清楚 Should the United States join an international treaty to address climate change/global warming even if China does not also join? 即使美国不加入应对气候变化 / 全球变暖的国际承诺，中国仍然要加入应对气候变 化 / 全球变暖的国际承诺吗？ o No 否 o Yes 是 o I am not sure 不清楚 Results from these questions are presented graphically in Figures 1 and 2. International Policy Questions Figures 1 and 2 show significant differences in support for joining an international climate change treaty between Chinese and American respondents. Chinese respondents show a greater unconditional support for joining an international treaty. There is significant unconditional support in United States for joining an international treaty. Support for joining an international treaty declines in both countries conditional on the other country not participating. United States respondents show a greater uncertainty about joining an international treaty. Table 2 presents the results from our regression model examining what factors influence support for joining an international climate change treaty. Respondents in the Unites States show less support for joining an international treaty. Saying climate change is happening, seeing a scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change and being concerned about climate change are all positively correlated with support for joining an international treaty in both countries. Selecting the environment as the most important issue leads to more support for joining an international treaty in both countries. In the United States, both Liberals and Moderates exhibit greater support for joining an international treaty compared to Conservatives. Figures 1 & 2: Graphical Analysis Results Table 1: Descriptive Statistics Table 2: Regression Analysis Results Table 2 presents the results from this regression model.