Gold Focus 2016 – DPMC Philip Newman, Dubai 12 th April 2016

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“Further upside likely for the gold price in 2016.” “..the change in investor sentiment seen in the first quarter is more likely to solidify than melt away..” “..this impressive recovery will mark the end of the bear cycle that started in 2011.” Our Gold Focus press release

2015: ongoing dollar price weakness Source: Bloomberg

US Fed rate expectations: 5 th January 2015 Source: Bloomberg

Other headwinds: US$ strength & focus on equities Source: Bloomberg

Net institutional selling continued in 2015 Source: Bloomberg

Mine production: , +446t, avg 3% p.a. Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

Mine costs: windfall from weaker producer currencies The blue line represents a rebased gold price, that has been adjusted for local currency movements from the world’s largest 20 gold producing countries. Local currencies have been indexed from January 2010, and weighted by the countries’ 2015 gold production. Source: Bloomberg, Metals Focus

Mine costs continued to fall * Total Cash Cost plus Depreciation equals Total Production Cost Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service : AISC: -$154 Gold price: -$510

Recycling: weakened again in 2015 Source: Metals Focus

Chinese and Indian gold demand Source: Metals Focus

Mainland China official bullion imports Source: Various, Metals Focus

Chinese jewellery and retail investment demand Source: Metals Focus

Chinese jewellery and retail investment demand Source: Metals Focus

India official bullion imports Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce

Indian jewellery and retail investment demand Source: Metals Focus

Key areas of gold demand Source: Metals Focus

Jewellery consumption, 2014 vs 2015 *North America & Europe excluding the CIS Source: Metals Focus

Physical investment, 2014 vs 2015 Source: Metals Focus

Central bank purchases driven by Russia & China Source: Metals Focus

Market balance remained neutral in 2015 Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

Global supply forecast Source: Metals Focus

Global demand forecast Source: Metals Focus. Jewellery basis fabrication series.

Gold market remains balanced in 2016 Source: Metals Focus

Expectations of US Fed rate increase Source: Bloomberg

Turnaround in institutional investor activity in 2016 Source: Bloomberg

Gold 25-Delta Risks Reversal* *The difference in implied volatility between 25-delta call and put options. This illustrates whether investor interest in the option market is skewed to the call side (if positive) or put side (if negative), as well as the extent of the skew. Source: Bloomberg

Quarterly gold price forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

Quarterly gold price forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

Strong physical investment Source: Bloomberg, US Mint

Indian silver market Source: Bloomberg, US Mint

Quarterly gold:silver ratio forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

Quarterly silver price forecast Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

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