DIVERSITY IN THE CONVERGENCE PROCESS OF ACCESSION COUNTRIES Urmas Varblane University of Tartu ASIAN CENTURY? – THE GROWING ROLE OF ASIA Urmas Varblane, University of Tartu

The contribution of different regions into world economic growth World economic crisis increased the importance of the emerging economies for the world economic growth

The World’s Largest 20 Sovereign Wealth Funds, 2012 Who has capital to invest?

Majority of world population is living in emerging economies – these are major providers of labour and consumers too! Shares of world population in 2015 (World Bank)

China is becoming the major player of world trade

China Goes Global: OFDI Source: MOFCOM 2010 Statistical Bulletin of China’s OFDI Regional Comparison of China’s OFDI Stock ( ) China’s outward foreign direct investment flows increased from under $1 billion in 2000 to $74.6 billion in 2011, Stock of OFDI grew from nearly $27 billion in 2000 to over $424 billion in 2011.

R&D expenditures as a share of economic output of selected regions/countries: 1996–2009

R&D expenditures for United States, EU, and 10 Asian economies: 1996–2009 (National Science Board, 2012) Asia-10 = China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand

Average annual growth of R&D expenditures for United States, EU, and selected Asian economies: 1996–2007, 2007–08, and 2008–09 National Science Board, 2012 Since 1996 China has increased R&D expenditures in average annually by 21 per cent

Average annual growth in number of researchers, by region/country/economy: 1995–2002 and 2002–09 NOTE: Growth rates through last available year in range indicated National Science Board, 2012

War for talents

measures not only country’s natural potential for producing talent in socio-demographic terms, but also conditions necessary to realize this potential. Demographics Quality of compulsory education sectors Quality of universities and business schools Quality of the environment to nurture talent Mobility and relative openness of the labor market Trends in foreign direct investment Proclivity to attracting talent

Global talent index 2012 (Heidrick & Struggles)

The composition of the global talent pool has changed… Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for and year-old age groups year-old population25-34-year-old population Schleischer, 2012

First university degrees in natural sciences and engineering, by selected region/country: 2008 or latest data Asia-8 = India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand National Science Board, 2012

First university degrees in natural sciences and engineering, by selected country/economy: 1998–2008 NOTE: Natural sciences include physical, biological, environmental, agricultural, and computer sciences, and mathematics National Science Board, 2012

Doctoral degrees in natural sciences and engineering, by selected region/country: 2000 to most recent year National Science Board, 2012

Value added of high-technology manufacturing industries, by selected region/country: 1998–2010

Potential role of Asia trading partner destination of investments source of potential investors source of talents research partner teaching partner …