Famine Early Warning Systems Network Agroclimatic Outlook April 12, 2016 / EWIWG meeting Kabul, Afghanistan

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK1 OUTLINE 1.Progress of the October – May wet season 2.Seasonal forecast 3.Key messages

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK2 PROGRESS OF THE ‘OCTOBER – MAY’ WET SEASON

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK3 Precipitation was well below average through February

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK4 Above-average precipitation in March and April

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK5 Near-average cumulative precipitation in many provinces

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK6 Cumulative precipitation mostly similar to last season

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK7 Snowpack improved in March Snow Water Equivalent Difference Anomaly February 28, 2016 minus Average Snow Water Equivalent Difference Anomaly April 10, 2016 minus Average

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK8 NOHRSC Snow Water Equivalent by Province April 10, 2015 vs April 10, Snow Water Equivalent is similar to last year

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK9 Most basins have average to below-average snowpack

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK12 Vegetative conditions are above-average in most areas… NDVI Percent of Normal, March 26 – April

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK13 But below average in some rainfed areas NDVI Percent of Normal, rainfed areas, March 26 – April

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK14 Rainfed wheat production varies much more than irrigated Afghanistan annual wheat production, irrigated and rainfed

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK15 SEASONAL FORECAST

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK16 SHORT-TERM FORECAST More precipitation expected through 18 April

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK17 Temp. Anomaly, Apr - Jun Precipitation Anomaly, Apr - Jun Near-average precipitation and above-average temperatures expected for April – June 2016

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK18 Key Messages  Although El Niño is typically associated with above-average precipitation in Afghanistan, cumulative precipitation for the 2015/16 season through February was well below average across most of the country.  However, precipitation totals during March and early April were above-average in most areas, facilitating the planting and early development of spring wheat.  Although cumulative precipitation remains below average in some areas, it is now near-average in many provinces. Near- average precipitation is forecast through the remainder of the wet season ending in May 2016.

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK19 Key messages  It is most likely that below-average snowpack in some basins will not drastically affect aggregate irrigated wheat production, given that snowpack in basins supplying key surplus producing areas, including Kunduz Province and Eastern Region, are at average to above-average levels.  Additionally, there is little year-on-year variation in irrigated wheat production, suggesting irrigated production is less sensitive to variations in winter snowfall.  However, irrigated production in localized areas may still be affected by reduced availability of irrigation water.

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK20 Key messages  If spring precipitation is near average during the remainder of the wet season, as forecasts suggest, aggregate wheat production during the 2016 season may still be near average.  Continued monitoring of spring rainfall is critical, particularly for households in the Central Highlands who are heavily dependent on the single cropping season of rainfed wheat.  In the coming week, there is an elevated risk of flooding due to forecasts for significant precipitation in many areas, including at high elevations, and above-average temperatures that could lead to a higher rate of snow melt.