Forecast Review: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 City One: Redding, California.

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Presentation transcript:

Forecast Review: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 City One: Redding, California

Population (2011) Total 92,328 Density 1,500/sq mi (580/km2) Demonym Reddingite Redding, California

KRDD Z 20007KT 10SM BKN017 11/07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP164 T = KRDD Z 20007KT 10SM BKN017 11/07 A3002= KRDD Z 21009KT 10SM BKN024 12/06 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP164 T = KRDD Z 21009KT 10SM BKN024 12/06 A3002= KRDD Z 18008KT 10SM SCT032 SCT039 BKN060 12/05 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP160 T = KRDD Z 18008KT 10SM SCT032 SCT039 BKN060 12/05 A3000= KRDD Z 17012G15KT 10SM SCT040 SCT050 BKN060 14/04 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP154 T = KRDD Z 17012G15KT 10SM SCT040 SCT050 BKN060 14/04 A2999= KRDD Z 18010KT 10SM FEW044 BKN080 14/03 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149 T = KRDD Z 18010KT 10SM FEW044 BKN080 14/03 A2998= KRDD Z 18011KT 10SM SCT070 BKN090 14/03 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 T = KRDD Z 18011KT 10SM SCT070 BKN090 14/03 A2997= KRDD Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB30E39 SLP142 P T = KRDD Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995= Redding Observations

KRDD Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB30E39 SLP142 P T = KRDD Z 18007KT 10SM FEW033 SCT070 14/02 A2995= KRDD Z 16007KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 13/03 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T = KRDD Z 16007KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 13/03 A2995= KRDD Z 17011KT 10SM OVC090 13/03 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T = KRDD Z 17011KT 10SM OVC090 13/03 A2994= KRDD Z 17012KT 10SM SCT060 OVC090 13/03 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T = KRDD Z 17012KT 10SM SCT060 OVC090 13/03 A2994= KRDD Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB25 SLP139 P0000 T = KRDD Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994= KRDD Z AUTO 18012G18KT 10SM -RA OVC055 12/05 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB25 SLP139 P0000 T = KRDD Z AUTO 20007KT 10SM -RA OVC050 12/05 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP146 P T = Redding Observations

KRDD Z AUTO 20007KT 10SM -RA OVC050 12/05 A2996= KRDD Z AUTO 20006KT 10SM -RA OVC050 11/06 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 P0002 T = KRDD Z AUTO 20006KT 10SM -RA OVC050 11/06 A2996= KRDD Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC046 09/07 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 P0001 T = KRDD Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC046 09/07 A2997= KRDD Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM -RA BKN045 OVC060 10/07 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 P T = KRDD Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM -RA BKN045 OVC060 10/07 A2997= KRDD Z AUTO 18010KT 8SM -RA OVC041 09/07 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 P0002 T = KRDD Z AUTO 18010KT 8SM -RA OVC041 09/07 A2998= KRDD Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 09/07 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 P0007 T = KRDD Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN042 OVC049 09/07 A2998= KRDD Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM FEW019 BKN075 OVC085 09/07 A2999 RMK AO2 RAE03 SLP154 P T = KRDD Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM FEW019 BKN075 OVC085 09/07 A2999= Redding Observations

Surface Conditions - Redding Organized low pressure systems require more energetic waves aloft….

Satellite View - Redding

Radar - Redding The strength of a West Coast disturbance can be measured by how much its precipitation signature does NOT conform to the topography…

Upper Air - Redding

Model Guidance Be careful of DMO in rugged terrain since the nearest grid point may be in a different climate zone

Verifications - Redding

Scores - Survey

Scores - Career

Up Close and Personal

The strength of the upper level disturbance determines the amount of lift/ vertical motions A prolonged west or southwest flow is needed for heavy precipitation in the northern end of the Central Valley Temperatures do not vary much under mostly cloudy skies day and night. Winds are usually light, unless it is from the south or mixing down from aloft. MOS is very good in timing fronts coming into northern California. Lessons Learned - Redding

Forecast Review: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 City Two: Binghamton, New York

Binghamton, NY Population (2010 census) [2][3] [2][3] City 47,376 Density4,300.9/sq mi (1,656.6/km 2 ) Metro 251,725 DemonymBinghamtonian

KBGM Z 12006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC010 09/08 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP185 P T = KBGM Z 14005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN012 09/08 A3006= KBGM Z 14005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN041 BKN055 OVC065 09/08 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 P0001= KBGM Z 16004KT 2SM -RA BR FEW048 OVC060 09/09 A3006 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 1/2 SLP183 P0004 T = KBGM Z 13004KT 1SM RA BR BKN017 BKN046 OVC060 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP178 P0010 T RVRNO= KBGM Z 14006KT 1/2SM RA FG BKN024 BKN046 OVC055 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 P0003 RVRNO= KBGM Z 15004KT 1/4SM RA FG BKN025 BKN046 OVC065 10/09 A3004 RMK AO2 P0005 RVRNO= KBGM Z 15004KT 1/2SM RA FG SCT030 BKN050 OVC065 10/09 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP175 P T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR OVC037 11/10 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP183 P0006 T = KBGM Z 18003KT 3SM -RA BR SCT022 OVC027 11/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP183 P0005 T = KBGM Z 17003KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC017 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP182 P T = Binghamton Observations

KBGM Z 17003KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC017 12/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP182 P T = KBGM Z 19003KT 3SM BR FEW011 BKN034 OVC044 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 RAE00 SLP185 P0000 T = KBGM Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC031 12/11 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP188 T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC020 11/11 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1SM BR FEW002 OVC018 12/11 A3007= KBGM Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM BR SCT001 BKN008 OVC016 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2= KBGM Z 23003KT 1/2SM FG VV004 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP190 T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG VV003 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG BKN003 OVC024 12/11 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB0559E36 SLP190 P0003 T RVRNO= KBGM Z 23004KT 1/2SM FG BKN002 OVC021 12/12 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP187 P0001 T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG BKN004 OVC032 13/12 A3008 RMK AO2 RAB10E28 SLP187 P T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP189 T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP194 T RVRNO= KBGM Z 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 12/12 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP T RVRNO $= Binghamton Observations

Surface Conditions - Binghamton

Satellite View - Binghamton

Radar - Binghamton

Upper Air - Binghamton

Model Guidance Rainfall through 12z Wed expected between ” Actual = 0.63”

Verifications - Binghamton

Scores - Career

Up Close and Personal

Frontogenesis is a strength of the mesoscale models and its stratiform precipitation amounts are credible. Fog and low clouds in an upslope flow (such as BGM) are common when rain-cooled air is not stirred during the day. PVA is a good lifting mechanism over a front boundary. Lessons Learned - Binghamton