Growing the pie: the importance of Asia to NZ’s exports Presentation to the EPIC NZ conference John Ballingall Deputy Chief Executive 18 May 2012

2 Outline ► Why NZ needs to lift its exports ► How Asia helped us through the recession ► NZ exports are already shifting toward Asia ► The shift is expected to continue ► On-going NZ opportunities ► FTA benefits/risks

3 NZ needs to lift its exports Source: OECD

4 Asian demand helped us through GFC Source: Stats NZ Contribution to NZ's goods export growth, past 3 years

5 Goods trade is shifting to emerging- Asia… Source: Stats NZ

…as are exports of services 6 Source: Stats NZ & Education Counts through visitor arrivals and international student numbers* * (2011) Does not include Australian students

Asia is NZ’s biggest F&B market 7 Source: Coriolis (2012)

…and will continue to grow due to 8 Source: IMF the region’s rapid growth in income and economic importance

Demand for NZ exports… 9 Source: ITC

…is growing quickly in Asia 10 Source: ITC

NZ has a current advantage from FTAs NZ-China FTA China tariffs NZAll others Milk Powder0'10 Beef Wool0*38 Lamb Butter0=0= 10 'Eliminated in Eliminated in 2016 *Country specific tariff quota of 28,941 tonnes = Eliminated in AANZFTA Indonesia tariffs NZAll others Milk Powder0'5 Frozen Beef05 Malt extract05 Butter05 Fibreboard05 'Eliminated in 2019

Summary ► NZ’s export performance has been lagging ► China lessened our burden from the GFC ► NZ export patterns are shifting to Asia ► The region’s performance will see this continue ► Asian demand for NZ’s exports is growing rapidly ► FTAs present NZ with a temporary advantage in some of these markets 12