Kevin Farshchi Kushal Chukkapalli Melanie Tan Bradley Coyne March 17, 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

Kevin Farshchi Kushal Chukkapalli Melanie Tan Bradley Coyne March 17, 2015

 Introduction  Business Overview  Industry Overview  Macroeconomic Review  Recent Financial Performance  Financial Analysis  Financial Valuation  Recommendation AGENDA

 Innovator, manufacturer and marketer of tools and equipment, diagnostics and repair, and system solutions for professional users performing critical tasks.  Founded in 1920 and headquartered in Kenosha, Wisconsin  Products and services include hand and power tools, tool storage, diagnostic software, information and management systems, shop equipment, vehicle repair solutions and services in various Industrial segments.  Presence in more than 130 countries with 66% of sales in US. INTRODUCTION Source: K Pages 4, 11, and 105 Holdings : 100 shares purchased at $85.20 on April Currently value: $ per share (market value = $14,423) Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook

Source: 2014 Annual Report Page 1 Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook

BUSINESS SEGMENTS Snap-on Tools Group Repair Systems & Information Financial Services Commercial & Industrial Source: K Page 4 Company Overview Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook Company Prospect

CONTRIBUTIONS OF EACH SEGMENT Source: K Page 104 Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook

BUSINESS OVERVIEW Snap-on Tools Group Commercial and Industrial Financial Services Repair Systems and Information Mobile Van Distributors E-Commerce Company Direct Sales Business SegmentsDistribution Channels Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook

Tools Hand tools, power tools, and tool storage products Majority of products are manufactured by Snap-on Diagnostic and Repair Information Handheld and PC-based diagnostic products, service and repair information products, diagnostic software solutions, electronic parts catalogs, etc. Equipment Solutions for the diagnosis and service of vehicles and industrial equipment Wheel alignment equipment, tire changers, vehicle lifts, collision repair equipment, brake service equipment, etc. Financial Services Business loans and vehicle leases to franchisees Installment sales and lease contracts Other Franchise fee revenue PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Source: K Pages 6 and 7 Company Overview Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook Company Prospect

PRODUCT AND GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSITY Geographical SalesProduct Diversity Source: K Pages 105 and 106 Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook

Competition No single company competes with Snap- on across all products lines and distribution channels Various Companies compete in one or more product category and/or distribution channel Genuine Parts Company, Stanley Black and Decker, and W.W. Grainger, Inc. Raw Materials and Purchased Product Snap-on has secured sufficient supply of bar and coil steel to meet demands Does not anticipate experiencing any significant impact in 2015 from steel pricing or availability issues Patents Snap-on relies on patent protection to protect its intellectual property 700 active or pending patents in the U.S. and 1,500 internationally Sales relating any single patent did not represent a material portion of revenues in the last three years BUSINESS OVERVIEW Source: K Page 10 Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustryMacro Outlook

Foreign Exchange Significant international payment obligations or receipts denominated in foreign currencies Identifies naturally offsetting positions and then purchases hedging instruments Economic Possibility of loss due to economic instability in areas of the world where Snap-on operates Inflation does not have a significant impact on Snap-on MACROECONOMIC REVIEW Source: K Page 54 Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustry Macro Outlook

 Commodities – Inputs  Snap-on is a purchaser of steel, aluminum, and natural gas  Specialized alloys are available from a limited number of suppliers and exhibit price and demand cyclicality MACROECONOMIC REVIEW Source: : k, page 54http:// Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustry Macro Outlook

MACROECONOMIC REVIEW Source: k, page 54http://  Commodities – Demand  Prices of gasoline and other petroleum-based fuels  Affect sales of auto vehicles and hence the demand for Snap-on’s repair services Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustry Macro Outlook

MACROECONOMIC REVIEW Source: K page 54http://  Vehicle Characteristics  Affects frequency, type and amount of service and repair performed by technicians and the number of working technicians  Affects demand for Snap-on tools and other products Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationIndustry Macro Outlook

INDUSTRY PORTER’S FIVE FORCES Power of Suppliers : Low Industry does not depend on any one supplier Raw materials are widely available Rivalry Among Firms: Medium No competitor exists that scales all operations or products Various companies compete in one or more product categories/distribution channels Power of Buyers : Medium Other companies offer similar products and equipment Mobile Van distribution is a unique and desired feature for buyers Barriers to Entry : Medium Patent Protection Global market can pose threat Need a unique and highly useful product to break into and be successful within the industry Threat of Substitutes : Medium Many products are highly specialised but some are standard tools and diagnostic equipment Company Overview Company Prospect Financial AnalysisValuationMacro Outlook Industry

SWOT ANALYSIS Technological Prowess – R&D investments Customer Loyalty Cost Advantages in many niche products Financing segment helps in maintaining franchisees Technological Prowess – R&D investments Customer Loyalty Cost Advantages in many niche products Financing segment helps in maintaining franchisees Emerging markets and Geographical Diversification Invest more in R&D to maintain advantage Emerging markets and Geographical Diversification Invest more in R&D to maintain advantage Inefficient foreign currency management Success of mobile tool distribution business depends on the success of its franchisees Inefficient foreign currency management Success of mobile tool distribution business depends on the success of its franchisees International competition is intensifying Raw material and energy price fluctuations/shortages Weakening international economy International competition is intensifying Raw material and energy price fluctuations/shortages Weakening international economy Company Overview Macro Outlook Financial AnalysisValuation Industry Company Prospect StrengthsWeaknesses OpportunitiesThreats

Fourth quarter revenue of $857.4 millions, a 7.5% increase from Q earnings of $145.2 million, 16.5% of the sales Raised dividends by 20.5% to $0.53 per share RECENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Source: CEO Nick Pinchuk’s statement in 2014 Q4 “Earnings call” Company Overview Macro Outlook Financial AnalysisValuation Industry Company Prospect

Source : Bloomberg : SNA US Equity Company Overview Macro Outlook Financial AnalysisValuation Industry Company Prospect

 Nicholas T. Pinchuk – Chairman and CEO  Became CEO in December 2007  President of Commercial & Industrial Group from June 2002 to December 2007  Focus on Coherent Growth  Develop and expand professional customer base in automotive repair, adjacent markets, and additional geographies  Enhancing the franchise network, expanding in the vehicle repair garage, extending to critical industries, and building in emerging markets MANAGEMENT Source: 2014 Proxy statement Page 20,26, K Page 26 Company Overview Macro Outlook Financial AnalysisValuation Industry Company Prospect

 Commercial & Industrial Group  Invest in emerging market growth initiatives.  Expand business with existing customers and reach new ones  Tools Group  Improve franchisee productivity, profitability, and commercial health.  Develop new programs and products to expand market coverage and penetration  Repair Systems & Information Group  Expand product offering with new products and services; increase penetration in emerging markets  Upgrade software and hardware  Financial Services  Deliver products and services that attract and sustain profitable franchisees, improve productivity levels, and maintain a healthy portfolio performance. MANAGEMENT’S STRATEGIC PRIORITIES Source: K Page 27 and 28 Company Overview Macro Outlook Financial AnalysisValuation Industry Company Prospect

VALUE CREATION PROCESS Source: 2014 Annual Report Page 8 Company Overview Macro Outlook Financial AnalysisValuation Industry Company Prospect

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS- RATIOS Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Valuation Industry Financial Analysis Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Profitability Ratios Operating Profit Margin12.89%15.76%17.19%18.30%19.79% Net Margin6.96%9.28%9.88%10.82%12.08% ROA 7.47%8.08%8.74%10.02% ROE 18.19%17.74%19.37%18.68% Leverage Ratios Debt/Assets31.39%26.79%25.00%23.65%21.33% Interest Coverage Debt/EBITDA Debt/Capitalization Turnover Ratios A/R Turnover Days Sales Outstanding Inventory Turnover Inventory Days Fixed Asset Turnover Total Asset Turnover

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS- RATIOS Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Valuation Industry Financial Analysis Greenblatt Ratios EBIT/Tangible Assets17.14%31.25%31.82%32.84%39.86% EBIT/EV3.33%4.61%5.24%5.83%6.83%

DUPONT ANALYSIS Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Valuation Industry Financial Analysis DuPont Analysis Tax Burden 66.18%66.14%66.55%66.80% Interest Burden 88.96%86.85%88.84%91.38% Operating Profit Margin 15.76%17.19%18.30%19.79% Asset Turnover Leverage ROE 18.72%18.19%17.74%19.37%

Source : Bloomberg : SNA US Equity Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Valuation Industry Financial Analysis

VALUATION – DISCOUNT RATE Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Financial Analysis Industry Valuation DISCOUNT RATE: WACC + PREMIUM Capitalization Notes Total Debt978.8 Balance sheet debt + operating leases Total Common Equity Total Capital Shares outstanding 58.1 Current Price$144.23As of 3/16/2015 Total market value of equity Cost of Equity - CAPM Approach Rf2.13%10 year US T-bill Beta1.315 year weekly regression of returns MRP5.00%Country risk premium E[R]8.70% Realized Returns % % % Cost of Debt 5.42%Weighted average interest rate on debt Tax Rate31.60%Management guidance from 10 K Discount Rate Calculation KEKE 11.89%Blend of 85.0% E[R] & 15.0% 2015 Realized Returns WEWE 89.55% K D (After Tax)3.71% WDWD 10.45% WACC11.04% Business Risk Premium0.50% Discount Rate11.54%

Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Financial Analysis Industry Valuation VALUATION – DCF Free Cash Flow Build FY 2015EFY 2016EFY 2017EFY 2018EFY 2019ETerminal EBIT Plus: D&A Less: Taxes (208.1) (223.7) (252.9) (278.5) (288.9) Less: Capex (85.0) (87.8) (93.6) (97.5) (75.6) Less: Changes in NWC Trade and other accounts receivable - net Finance receivables - net Contract receivables - net Inventories - net Deferred income tax assets Prepaid expenses and other assets Total Current Assets Notes payable & current maturities of l-t debt (110.2) (90.9) (9.9) Accounts payable (10.3) (10.9) (7.5) (6.2) Accrued benefits (3.8) (6.0) (4.2) (2.9) (2.4) Accrued compensation (7.1) (12.8) (7.9) (5.4) (4.5) Franchisee deposits (4.7) 2.0 (4.5) (3.1) (2.6) Other accrued liabilities (21.3) (21.2) (22.5) (15.5) (12.8) Total Current Liabilities 9.4 (48.2) (160.1) (125.3) (38.3) Working Capital(159.64)(117.09)(21.46)(21.88)(99.92) Unlevered FCF Terminal Growth Rate3.0% Discount Rate (WACC + premium)11.54% Terminal Value 7, PV of Terminal Value4, PV of FCF's PV of FCF'sEVNet Debt Equity ValueSharesPrice/Share Perpetuity Method1, , , $86.65

COMPANY COMPETITOR SET Dover Corp (10% weight) Size & Capital Structure Dimension Danaher Corp (25% weight) Growth and Competition Dimension Genuine Parts Company (20% weight) Automotive Dimension W.W. Grainger, Inc. (15% weight) Industrial Distribution Dimension Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (30% weight) Tools Product Dimension Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Financial Analysis Industry Valuation

RELATIVE STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Financial Analysis Industry Valuation SNA

TRADING COMPARABLES VALUATION Company EV/RevenueEV/EBITDA EV/Forward Revenue NTM EV/Forward EBITDA P/Diluted EPS Before Ex NTM Forward P/E Snap-on Incorporated (NYSE:SNA) 2.6x12.2x2.66x11.16x20.2x18.45x Comparable Companies Weight Dover Corporation (DOV) x8.9x1.80x9.15x15.5x15.02x Danaher Corp. (DHR) x13.6x2.97x12.78x23.9x19.86x Genuine Parts Company (GPC) x12.1x0.96x11.07x20.8x19.69x W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) x10.1x1.55x9.56x20.4x18.00x Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) x9.9x1.59x10.02x17.7x16.21x Implied Price $98.50$131.55$94.60$138.65$143.19$ Company Overview Macro Outlook Company Prospect Financial Analysis Industry Valuation

PRICE TARGET Stock Price as of 3/16/15$ Implied Share Prices: Discounted Cash Flow$86.65 EV / Revenue $98.50 EV / EBITDA $ EV / Forward Revenue $94.60 NTM EV/Forward EBITDA $ P/Diluted EPS Before Ex $ NTM Forward P/E $ Takeaways: Highly overvalued based on DCF Not one multiple is above the current stock price

RECOMMENDATION SELL 100 shares Limit $140 GTC (69% Rate of Return)

THANK YOU! Any questions?