Metron Aviation CE Overview for TFM Research Board Mark Klopfenstein Oct,

October Metron Aviation CE Projects SEVEN Airspace Congestion Management Research Airspace Optimization Research Reroute Impact Assessment (RRIA) Airport Congestion Management Departure Flow Management (DFM) Excessive Surface Delays TFM Surface Data Initiative (TSDI) Airport Congestion Management Research Domain Integration Integrated Program Modeling (IPM) System Integrated TMIs Domain Integration Research Performance Monitoring & Assessment Operations Analysis Performance Metrics Infrastructure Data Management Integrated Simulation Environment (ISE) Airspace Congestion Management

October Concept SEVEN System Enhancements for Versatile Electronic Negotiation  Continued concept refinement through HITLs  Developing phase implementation plan  Developing functional and system requirements  Moving forward towards operational prototypes that could support potential field trials Single Line FCAPolygon SUAMultiple Line FCA

October Airspace Congestion Management Research  Initial research to feed additional white papers on new TFM concepts  Additional/expanded applications of AFP  FCA airspace capacity estimation Bad wx days Historical flow rate (sector triplet usage) Suggested range for FCA rate based on filters and location Apply filters All days CIWS forecast FCAA08 Click & drag Customized FCA Conceptual DST for setting AFP rates

October Airspace Optimization Current Focus: leverage NetFM technology to develop practical DST application(s) NetFM status Completed full-scale, NAS-wide Dynamic NetFM Optimizes the scheduling and routing of a day of flights Cells represent one node at one time step Time steps represent the average travel time for an aircraft to cross a hex cell Ground and airborne delays modeled by connecting nodes in successive time steps. Completed algorithms for defining NetFM initialization files Filed demand Airborne demand Airspace capacity Completed flow disaggregator for defining optimal departure times and routes for each flight

October NetFM Next Steps  Continue progress towards operational prototype Testing and validation with multiple real scenarios Explore scalability - Smaller time steps - More markets - Arc filtering Weather Integration: Feed capacity prediction results into NetFM Develop methods for mapping hex routes to existing route structure  Develop and apply metrics for comparing NetFM solutions to other TFM strategies How much better is the NetFM solution  Explore approaches for TMI “auto-suggest”

October Reroute Impact Assessment  Working with Volpe on historical analysis aimed at identifying best way to model reroutes that are not uniquely defined  Prototyping map-based route builder that will allow FAA and customers to quickly & easily generate “good” routes Explore concepts for graphically creating reroutes Point-and-click and snap-to nearest fix, NAVAID, or NRS waypoint Piecing together existing segments Algorithmically identify pre-coordinated reroutes that best approximate user drawn waypoints Develop rules for defining a “good” or flyable route

October Route Builder

October Route Builder (2)

October Constructing “Good” Routes

October Departure Flow Management  How it works (high-level) The ARTCC TMC creates FEAs using a TSD to define the flows they need to monitor The ARTCC TMC enters restrictions on the flows using the DFM web application DFM queries TFMS for the FEA flight list and entry times DFM identifies all gaps in the restricted flow and presents a timeline for the TMC to monitor When a pilot calls for taxi, the ATCT looks for the flight on their DFM web application If the flight is restricted, DFM shows all of the available release times for the flight The ATCT selects the desired release time DFM assigns the flight to the first available release time at or after the desired time and sends this information to the ARTCC TMC  Current focus Harden v1.4 of DFM prototype for field operations Support long-term field evaluations at 3-6 Centers beginning in March 2009 DFM is a web-based capability that automates the APREQ release process Center Browser Display Tower Browser Display

October Excessive Surface Delays  Irregular operations often lead to long (hours) delays between pushback and takeoff Heart of problem leading to “Customer Bill of Rights”  Conducting analysis to better understand conditions that lead to such delays

October TFM Surface Data Initiative (TSDI)  Documented airport adaptation process used in current surface movement event extraction (SMEE) and transitioned to Volpe  Supporting Volpe with rolling out TSDI to additional airports

October Airport Congestion Management Research  Control by Time of Arrival (CbTA) Developing concept of operations Benefits assessment Develop & execute proof-of-concept operational demonstration Plan for national deployment  Working with Volpe to develop Unified GDP concept of operations  Initial research to feed additional white papers

October Integrated Program Modeling (IPM)  Prototype component in FSM that allows for Multiple program modeling Ability to compare the results of multiple scenarios (sets of GDPs/AFPs/Ground Stops) Aggregation of delay statistics of multiple programs  Designed to help validate traffic managers decisions to implement sets of programs  Produces real-time feedback to traffic managers about program effects on other monitored NAS resources  Prototype currently being evaluated in field trials at ATCSCC Delay Results PanelSeries of IPM Bar graphs with scenario-based arrival flow rates

October System Integrated TMIs  Continued analysis into the interaction between TMIs when layered together  Continued CE on IPM concepts Additional displays for flight-level impacts Extend modeling to sector-level CE support to development for “IPM execution”  Develop initial concept for NAS-wide EDCT programs  Develop TFM war game capability

October Domain Integration Research  Analyze SUA information and its current usage  Develop conops for Integrated Airport Capacity Model (IACM)  Support the development of Integrated Departure Arrival Capability (IDAC) conops and requirements  Initial research to feed additional white papers

October Integrated Airport Capacity Model: Overview  Integrates weather forecast data with published weather- dependent airport capacities  Uses statistical methods to compute a probabilistic airport capacity forecast  Forecast provides 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile airport arrival capacities based on RUC ceiling and visibility forecasts RUC Ceiling/Visibility forecast Probability of actual wx based on forecast Capacity as a function of probable actual wx Display range in capacity out to 8 hours

October Incorporating Terminal Airspace Capacity

October Operations Analysis  Analysis of current TFM operations with a focus on Identifying trends Defining and exploring current problems Generating strategies for incorporating analysis results into operations  Includes analyst support on-site at ATCSCC  Includes support for CDM workgroups (FCT, FET, GDPE)

October Operations Analysis Topics  Recently Completed AFP Operations and Benefits – 2008 SWAP Season AFP Operations and Benefits – Winter 2007/2008 (Mexican AFPs) Las Vegas GAAP GDP Equity Layered TMIs AFPs to Manage New York Metro Departure Demand  In Progress AFPs to Control TRACON Arrival Demand (C90 & PCT) AFPs to Manage New York Metro Arrival Demand Metrics to Determine Maximum Daily AFP/GDPs  Potential Future Integrated Collaborative Rerouting (ICR) Operations Potential Impacts of 24x7 GDPs at Often-Congested Airports Impacts of including additional Canadian departure airports in EDCT programs Effects of issuing GDPs earlier on day of use Effects of 2008 Q4 airline schedule reductions

October Performance Metrics  Developed a suite of metrics that describe the performance of many aspects of the NAS  Long-term goal: measure how TFM affects the performance of the NAS For a given TFM enhancement, or investment, what effect would it have on NAS performance?  Current focus Maintain metrics website and compute 2009 values for existing suite of metrics; add new metrics as needed Compile data for, and update periodically, a TFM Factbook illustrating the impact of TFM activities on civil aviation in the U.S. Continue to develop passenger-based metrics to illustrate impact of TFM activities on passenger trip time Interpret long-term trends and investigate days having extreme values for each metric Research ways to align our metrics with NextGen Operational Improvements

October TFM Factbook  Facts about TFM and the NAS # of flights per year Statistics on flight delays Top airports, air carriers and traffic/delay statistics Passenger impact  New analysis: compares a GDP to what might have happened had the GDP not been run Assumes airborne holding in lieu of GDP - Fewer delay minutes, but higher total cost and less safe Also computes fuel saved by GDPs Total “benefit” ~ $1 billion per year* *not validated thoroughly yet!

October CE Infrastructure  Data Management Collect, process, store, and maintain data need to support TFM concept engineering activities Improve data quality  Integrated Simulation Environment (ISE) Performance improvements to handle up to NextGen predicted traffic levels Historic NAS element definition database Demonstrate Time Based Metering simulation capabilities

October White Papers  Surface Congestion & Fuel Burn Reduction Identify and analyze future concepts to reduce surface congestion and thereby reduce fuel burn. Examples include virtual queues, slow-roll/managed taxi speeds, etc  Dynamic Allocation of NAS Resources "Dynamic Airspace Configuration is likely to be a key part of the future NAS. This project will explore operational concepts for partitioning portions of airspace for specialized temporary use to demonstrate what is achievable using today’s tools. An example is to use existing FEA/FCA capabilities to define temporary exclusion zones around arrival routes as a means to monitor, schedule, and coordinate Continuous Descent Arrival (CDA) operations  Pre-day of Operations TFM concepts Explore and evaluate concepts for conducting TFM activities before the day of operations using predominately airline schedule and/or historical data

October White Papers  Environmental Modeling & Analysis of TFM performance (fuel burn estimation) Develop (using, e.g., POET-R and NASEIM) methods to compute fuel burn for individual flights. Conduct pilot study of impact on fuel burn of various TFM actions. First step toward having a fuel burn analysis capability that might be incorporated into decision support tools.  ESP Delay Estimation Apply automation developed to support DFM to the ESP delay prediction problem, to assess the best approach to and potential value of automatically forecasting these delays in aggregate  Surface Data Usage Continue the CE that was started under the TSDI project to develop concepts for increased use of surface surveillance data including better departure time predictions, improved awareness of surface operations, and greater insight into gridlock identification, prediction, and prevention

October White Papers  NextGen of FSM slot assignment logic Current FSM slot assignment algorithms date from the 1990s and only partially accomplished their goals of efficiency, equity, predictability and control. This effort will examine alternative approaches such as Lagrangian relaxation to rewrite FSM algorithms to be more flexible and better able to achieve TFM objectives  SUA Information Research Develop concepts to increase the utilization of SUA for commercial aviation. One such idea is to adapt the SEVEN concept to the special case of SUA utilization to electronically communicate the requirements of the military for SUA and to quickly make use of the airspace when the military doesn't need it.  Additional AFP Capability & Usage AFPs were designed specifically as a replacement for GDPs in support of SWAP; however, additional applications such as AFPs for Mexican MIT have also been adapted. This work will further explore and develop additional applications of AFPs to improve TFM.

October White Papers  Departure Information Services Continued CE on the concepts and functionality developed by the DFM workgroup including departure fix balancing and using DFM departure controls to increase constrained airspace throughput. New capabilities could potentially go into the current DFM prototype or the WP2 IDAC capability.  Airspace Capacity Estimation One of the biggest challenges with AFPs or other airspace TMIs is knowing the capacity of the region of airspace when it is impacted by weather. This work will seek to apply to growing body of research into airspace capacity estimation to develop near-term decision support capabilities.  Airborne Delay Research Apply existing algorithms for measuring where airborne delays occur to develop an Airspace Congestion Predictor (ACP) that would provides metrics for measuring existing airspace congestion, the capability to predict future airborne delays and congestion, and provide metrics for comparing candidate TFM strategies