1 Consumer Staples- Tyson Foods Pitch Ticker: TSN Sector: Consumer Staples Market Cap: 14.19B Presenter: Austin Hagerty Buy: Full Position.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Consumer Staples- Tyson Foods Pitch Ticker: TSN Sector: Consumer Staples Market Cap: 14.19B Presenter: Austin Hagerty Buy: Full Position

2 Company Operations Second largest food production company in the Fortune 500 Tyson Produces roughly 1 out of every 5 pounds of chicken, beef and pork in the U.S Multi-Protein Chicken, Beef, Pork Multi-Channel Retail, Food Service, Exports Multi-National United States(96%), China, India

3 Revenue & Operating Income Breakdown PorkChicken Prepared Foods Beef

4 Why Tyson? Diversified vs pure play chicken producers 2 nd Largest food producer in the Fortune 500 next to Pepsi co Positioned well to grab that growth(US/CHINA/INDIA) As people enter the middle class, they consume more proteins.

7 Industry trends Cattle industry is slaughtering fewer heifers than usual  Good for supply in the future Hog industry is retaining more sows than usual  Good for supply in the future Feed costs for chicken production are decreasing  71% of costs on average Beef + Pork are expensive due to low supply  Makes chicken attractive More weight put on the hogs  Helps to offset low volume

5 Hillshire Farms Acquisition Hillshire Farms acquired August 28, 2014 Synergies expected to be $225m 2015 $500m in synergies by 2018 Increased margins expected Iconic brands Leading market share in important value-add protein categories Expertise in new product development and innovation

5 Hillshire Farms Acquisition

Investment returns Aggregate MIRR of projects over the last four years have been just shy of 25% “People often forget that a business with the 2% return on sales can still generate a pre-tax ROIC of 15% if you maximize the efficiency of your assets to turn your capital quickly, which is what we do.” Achieved a 12-month pre-tax return on invested capital up just over 20% compared to 16% for the prior year period. 20% ROIC goal is an important metric for Tysons and one they plan to achieve 8

Recent Events Fire occurred at one of their plants and operational issues at another –New production capacity Spring FY’15 and full recovery by FY’15 Sold operations in Mexico and Brazil to JBS for $575m –Did not have necessary scale to achieve the market leadership they hoped –Attractive price Closing 3 plants –Improve capacity utilization and streamline cost structure –Significant cost savings and production efficiencies expected 9 ChickenBeefPorkPrepared Foods 87%78%88%83% Production Capacity

6 Financial Highlights $2.78 eps- Conservative guidance given Chicken segment to possibly have new normalized range $500m in synergies by 2018 from Hillshire Increased margins likely in Fy’15  Hillshire prepared foods has over 9% margins  Tysons prepared foods has between 2-3% 10% EPS growth expected 20% EPS growth expected over % revenue growth

SWOT Analysis StrengthsWeaknessesOpportunitiesThreats 2 nd Largest food producer in Fortune 500 Paid large premium for Hillshire Acquisition Synergies from Hillshire dealCommodity pricing for feed could rise Industry trends in favor of TysonLarger amount of debt now due to acquisition/lower FCF in short term(No buybacks) Continued decrease in feed costs for chicken segment Synergies from Hillshire may not play out as hoped History of buybacks/dividendsCurrent production issues which are expected to be resolved(Negative Q’3 for chicken) Less slaughtering of heifers and sows(Female cattle & pig respectively),increasing supply in future. Chicken prices could fall due to increased supply Much more diversified than pure chicken producers(i.e. Sanderson farms, Pilgrim Pride) International segment recoveryLoss of Walmart as a customer (13% of sales) Roughly 25% IRR on past investments Aging population continues to move from carbs >protein Several $1BN brands ranked #1Prepared food segment margin growth thanks to Hillshire Chicken segment expected to reach 10% growth vs old 5-7% normalized range 11

DCF Price target and price chart Bull: DCF Estimate: $53.04 / 27.85% upside Base: DCF Estimate: $48.50/ 16.89% upside Bear: DCF Estimate: $42.03/ 1.31% Upside 12