Peak Oil Perspectives Bob Everett Open University EERU April 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Peak Oil Perspectives Bob Everett Open University EERU April 2008

n The IEA’s assessment is that oil (and gas) reserves are sufficient to sustain economic growth “for the foreseeable future”, and “to meet anticipated increases in world energy demand through to 2030”. Sir David King, Chief Scientist, 2007 IEA Forecast, 2001 Graphic: Open University

The projected continuous increase in oil production seems to have stalled in 2005 Pic: Oil Drum - Gail Tverberg

The oil price has gone up (both in $ and euros) but the dollar and the pound are collapsing against the euro Graphic: ASPO Netherlands Data: Oanda.com

But - not to worry! There’s lots of oil in the ground! Graphic: IEA - Sir David King’s note to APPGOPO, 2007

Indeed the world seems to be ‘running into oil’….. Graphic: Energy Bulletin - Gail Tverberg

But should we believe this? ‘The publishing of data is a political act’ Jean Laherrère The Petroconsultants database was set up by a company paid by oil companies to spy on other oil companies

In 1956 M.King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak around It did … at the end of He went on to predict that world oil production would peak around Pic: Energy Bulletin

The rate of oil production has been greater than that of discovery since the mid-1980s

A gloomy (or realistic?) projection from ASPO-Ireland

Another gloomy projection from the Energy Watch Group

Peak Gas Graphic: Open University

A 2001 projection from Jean Laherrère Graphic: Open University

Peak Coal Energy Watch Group 2007

The bright nuclear future…. King Hubbert was initially a great nuclear fan...

Or not…. Energy Watch Group 2006

Peak Oil/Gas/Coal and Climate Change Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

James Hansen’s recent projections of ‘Business as Usual’ global CO 2 emissions Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

If we have a coal phase-out by 2050 then CO 2 levels might be kept below 450 ppm. Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

James Hansen’s alternative BAU with lower oil, gas and particularly coal reserves. This might stay under 450 ppm if the ‘peakists’ are right. Kharecha & Hansen, 2007

Energy Return on Investment (EROI) Charles Hall - Oil Drum

So which do you want to worry about most and in what order? Climate Change? Peak Oil? Peak Gas? Peak Coal? Peak Uranium? Peak Investment Capital?

For more news on this ongoing saga see: The Oil Drum - The Energy Bulletin - ASPO Ireland - For more on Sustainable Energy see the OU T206 Sustainable Energy Course website: