Class 14 – Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective Dr. Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira (Postdoctoral Researcher) IRI-USP, São Paulo, 23 May 2016.

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Class 14 – Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective Dr. Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira (Postdoctoral Researcher) IRI-USP, São Paulo, 23 May 2016

Established Powers Emerging Powers Competition for Influence!!!  Some Revisionism Yet not necessarily at the World Scale...

 MECHANISMS TO DEPLOY HEGEMONY OR INFLUENCE 1 ) Agenda Setting: “…ability to initiate, legitimize, and advocate policy issues” (Reich and Lebow, 2014: 37); 2 ) Custodianship: stabilization of the international system in economy (economists would say that it is a provision of a public good) (Ibid.: 37), may not depend on a hegemon (Ibid.: 42); 3 ) Sponsorship: “enforcement of rules, norms, agreements, and decision-making processes as well as the maintenance of security to enhance trade and finance” (Ibid.: 43-44).  HOWEVER...

 HOW TO BUILD HEGEMONY OR AT LEAST INFLUENCE??? “Material capabilities are a principal source of power, but critical choices must be made about which capabilities to develop and how to use them effectively. The relationship between power and influence is malleable and fluid” (Reich and Lebow 2014, 179).  CHOICE FOR PERSUATION MATTERS FOR…

Established Powers Emerging Powers... Establishing cooperation in spite of fragmentation

It may depend on what the emerging power prefer Status quo Revisionism

Established Powers Emerging Powers Competition for Influence!!!  Opportunities for building alliances...

 What is a swing state? “In the American political context, swing states are those whose mixed political orientation gives them a greater impact than their population or economic output might warrant. This applies to Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey. The choices they make—whether they take on new responsibilities, free-ride, or obstruct—will, in aggregate, decisively influence the trajectory of today’s world” (Fontaine and Kilman, 2013: 93).

 Simulation: imagine you and your closest colleague are a major adviser to the American president and you both must provide an outline of an strategy to counter China’s rise through the establishment of alliances with key regional players. Within 5 minutes, list potential allies with the exception of Western European countries and justify based on concepts and information analyzed throughout the course why your choices are the most reliable for preserving U.S. power in the world.

A dilemma of emerging markets and powers??? Domestic Development International Power

From economic to military and structural power, but… Domestic Development International Power

Military, structural, and cultural power may back economic power!!! International Power Domestic Development

Military, structural, and cultural power may back economic power!!!  JOINING ALLIANCES RATHER THAN OPTING TO HAVE INTERNATIONAL POWER ON ITS OWN!!!  IN THIS CASE, EMERGING MARKETS OPT TO REMAIN AS SUCH!!! International Power Domestic Development

Power Military Structural (Norms) CulturalEconomic Hard Power Soft Power Realists Liberals emphasis on conflict emphasis on cooperation

Power Military Structural (Norms) CulturalEconomic Hard Power Soft Power Realists Liberals emphasis on conflict emphasis on cooperation

 Blocs focused on economic cooperation

From economic to structural (and military!!!) power

Power preservation  NO NEED FOR OTHERS’ PROTECTION…

Power consolidation  TO NOT DEPEND ON OTHERS’ UMBRELLA