Economic policy in a time of austerity Tom Sefton Economics and Social Policy Adviser Church of

Outline Shorter-term economic priorities: – Deficit reduction – Growth – Fairness Long-term structural challenges: – e.g. Stagnating living standards

Deficit reduction

Spending and revenues – with & without policy Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

Labour (actual) Labour (Mar 2010 plans) Coalition (Jun 2010 plans) Source: Budget June 2010 (and previous Budget reports for earlier years)

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and fiscal outlook charts and tables - March 2013

June 2013 plans Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

“Consideration should be given to greater near-term flexibility in fiscal adjustment path in the light of lacklustre private demand." (IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2013)

Timing and composition of fiscal consolidation Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

Growth

Source: NIESR

Source: Gavyn Davies, ‘Why is UK recovery weaker than the US?’ (FT, Nov )

Source: Labour Market Statistics (EMP02)

Fairness

Source: Own analysis based on Budget reports and Autumn Statements

Source: IFS Green Budget 2013

Forecasts for UK child poverty: Source: Browne, J. et al (2013), ‘Child and Working-Age Poverty in Northern Ireland [and UK] from 2010 to 2020’

Source: British Social Attitudes Survey