What are Reclamation and its partners doing to improve water supply projections, and to develop adaptations and build resilience to climatic and hydrologic changes in New Mexico? Dagmar Llewellyn, Reclamation Albuquerque Area Office 22 nd Annual New Mexico Water Dialogue J ANUARY 7, 2015, I NDIAN P UEBLO C ULTURAL C ENTER, A LBUQUERQUE, N EW M EXICO

Planning: How Can it Make a Difference? Goals of this Workshop “How can our institutions for governing and managing our water resources become more nimble and responsive to accelerating climate change impacts? How can planning help the State better address funding for needed projects? And finally, how can we enhance dialogue, cooperation, and coordinated action among local, regional, state, and federal actors?”

“The Rio Grande Offers the best example of how climate- change induced flow decline might sink a major system into permanent drought” Recent literature on the impacts of climate change on western water

Incorporation of Climate-Change Preparation into Reclamation’s Mission

WaterSMART Overview WaterSMART Water and Energy Efficiency Grants Basin Studies Title XVI Water Reclamation and Reuse Drought Resilience Water Conservation Field Services

WWCRA Baseline Assessment of risks and impacts Determine Imbalances in Water Supply & Demand SECURE Guidance Development Basin Studies Stakeholder engagement Develop adaptation strategies Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Understand risks in a landscape context Applied science tools Supporting resource managers Basin Study Program Specified Areas Water Delivery Hydropower Recreation at BOR facilities Fish & Wildlife Habitat Endangered, Threatened or Candidate Species Water Quality Flow & Water dependent ecological resiliency Flood control management Basin Study Program

West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment Activities: Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment Widely referenced within Middle Rio Grande Community Used as Basis for Reclamation Basin Studies, as well as other planning studies in the community such as: Albuquerque-Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority Water Plan. the DOT Volpe Center study of transportation and land- use planning in the Albuquerque area.

New Demands Report from West Wide Climate Risk Assessment Team

Projected Changes at Elephant Butte Reservoir

Updated Hydroclimate Projections Draft report in review with the West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment Team

Mean Percentage Change in Annual Runoff across the Western US The biggest red triangles are over New Mexico

Lots of red bars in the southwest! Draft figure from the Bureau of Reclamation’s SECURE Report to Congress for 2016

2016 SECURE Report to Congress and Opportunities

Basin Study Program Collaborative studies, cost-shared with non- Federal partners, to evaluate the impacts of climate change and help ensure sustainable water supplies by identifying strategies to address imbalances in water supply and demands Eligible applicants include states, tribes, water districts, cities, and other local governmental entities with water delivery or management authority located in the 17 Western States Require 50/50 cost-share

Santa Fe Basin Study: Adaptations to Projected Changes in Water Supply and Demand Final study released to public September Focus on municipal water. City of Santa Fe is acting on recommendations of the study, and has received a Title XVI Grant from Reclamation for a feasibility study of Water Reuse.

Pecos Basin Study Scheduled for completion June 2016 Focus is on agricultural adaptations to drought and increased variability

Middle Rio Grande Basin Study: Plan of Study Received 2015 funding from the Office of Policy for collaboration with partners to develop a plan of study for a Middle Rio Grande Basin Study Led by the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District Project seeks to involve all basin stakeholders in a comprehensive basin study

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Southern Rockies LCC –Has funded research on forest resilience in the Valles Caldera. –Is funding climate- change vulnerability assessments in the Rio Grande Basin. –Is developing landscape scale impact assessment in the Rio Grande Basin Desert LCC –Development of a Rio Grande Basin-Wide Forum. –Assisting with Rio Grande-focused social-science research out of the South Central Climate Science Center.

Department of Transportation – Volpe Center Study of Transportation and Land-Use Planning in the Albuquerque Area

USGS National Water Census: Upper Rio Grande Focus Area Study

Watershed Futures The Albuquerque District of the Army Corps of Engineers is convening regular meetings of Federal agencies involved in climate-change studies and adaptation.

Water Prize Competition: Technologies for Suppression of Evaporation from Reclamation Reservoirs

Water Prize Competition: Development of web application and other tools to better communicate forecasts, information sources, and uncertainty

S&T Program Funding: PACE Fellowship at the National Center for Atmospheric Research To focus on improvement of short-term (monthly to two-year) water- supply and water- demand forecasts for the Rio Grande Basin, as well as the Lower Colorado.

Reservoir Operations Pilots: Study of management flexibility on the Rio Chama to be funded by the Office of Policy

Middle Rio Grande Pueblo Irrigation Efficiency Improvements Under prior appropriation, efficiency improvements to the senior water rights lands means more water left for junior water rights lands

Incorporation of Climate-Change Projection Information into Environmental Compliance Efforts Rio Grande Project Operating Agreement Environmental Impact Statement Pojoaque Basin Regional Water System Environmental Impact Statement.

Overall message Reclamation’s Albuquerque Area Office is taking advantage of available Reclamation information and programs to provide leadership in the Rio Grande Basin in the projection of our future climate and water supply, the development of adaptations to projected changes, and the fostering of resilient social-ecological systems in the Rio Grande Basin.

Questions?