MERGE for GAC 19-20 May 2010 Climate Scenarios for Decisions and Policies Markku Rummukainen Lund University Centre for Environmental and Climate research.

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Presentation transcript:

MERGE for GAC May 2010 Climate Scenarios for Decisions and Policies Markku Rummukainen Lund University Centre for Environmental and Climate research

MERGE for GAC May 2010 ”Terra incognita” 2 Then Now Soon ? ? ?

MERGE for GAC May 2010 Visibleearth.nasa.gov

MERGE for GAC May 2010 C C 1. Read the field with PE 0 and distribute the error code C ierr = 0 if( mype.eq.0 ) then C call gread(lun,type,param,alev, X w,nx_grib,ny_grib,ierr,idum) C endif ! mype call broadca(0,'i',1,ierr,rdum,ldum,cdum) if(ierr.ne.0) return C C 2. Send to all processors C call broadca(0,'r', + nx_grib*ny_grib, + idum,w,ldum,cdum) C C 3. Do the interpolation C do j=1,ny_local do i=1,nx_local ii = i_f(i,j) jj = j_f(i,j) ckw iip = 1+mod(ii,nx_grib) cuh jjp = min(jj+1,ny_grib) f(i,j) = (1.-w_x_f(i,j))*(1.-w_y_f(i,j))*w(ii,jj) + x (1.-w_x_f(i,j))*w_y_f(i,j) *w(ii,jjp) + x w_x_f(i,j)*(1.-w_y_f(i,j))*w(iip,jj) + x w_x_f(i,j)*w_y_f(i,j) *w(iip,jjp) end do return c end

MERGE for GAC May 2010 Triolith supercomputer. Photo: Göran Billeson.

MERGE for GAC May 2010 We know that It’s getting warmer, etc. We are the cause The future is not set in stone, yet SMHI bildbank

MERGE for GAC May 2010 How much climate change? Climate sensitivity Carbon cycle / climate Emissions

MERGE for GAC May 2010 A ”thousand” alternative futures Fuss et al Net carbon dioxide emittions Gt CO 2/ yr Year

MERGE for GAC May 2010 Climate change: changing & changed climate Year ºC After IPCC Business as Usual Ambitious mitigation

MERGE for GAC May 2010 Regional differences in changes E.g., Sea level rise towards 2100 under cont’d large emissions IPCC 2013

MERGE for GAC May ºC2ºC2ºC2ºC 3ºC3ºC3ºC3ºC 4ºC4ºC4ºC4ºC 6ºC6ºC6ºC6ºC

Climate models useful for finding out about How much will climate change (for given emissions)? What are the global, regional and local impacts? What is the possibility for tipping points? Photos: M. Rummukainen

MERGE for GAC May 2010 Climate scenarios provide for ”climate proofing” Adaptation Mitigation Residual impacts Photos: M. Rummukainen, sxz.hu, Stockholm In essence, proofing future development

MERGE for GAC May 2010 Image © Risager, torebda.se, svensktvatten.se, Urban areas Physical infrastructure, e.g. sewer systems, harbours, roads and railways, … Coastal erosion Water resources Irrigation Biodiversity, Nature conservation Power grids Laws and regulations Natural catastrophes, e.g. landslides, flooding Technology change and Innovation Consumption patterns Regional planning Traffic and Transports Renewables Insurance mechanisms Agriculture, Forestry Investments Sustainable Development …