Planning Conference on Maryland’s Energy Future Dan Ervin Ph. D., Director, ShoreENERGY™ The Energy, Economic and Sustainability Program of the Franklin P. Perdue School of Business at Salisbury University

Electricity Demand Forecasting PJM Capacity Adequacy Planning Department Forecast –Forecast Period: Maryland Department of Natural Recourses Forecast Power Plant Research Program (PPRP) Forecast –Forecast Period:

Forecast Differences Geographical regions are not coincidental –Neither forecast provides reference or information about coincidental regions. Forecast periods are different

Regions PJM –RTO –Allegheny Power –Baltimore Gas and Electric Company –Potomac Electric Power Company –Delmarva Power and Light PPRP –Maryland –Baltimore Region –Washington Suburban Region –Southern Maryland –Western Maryland –Eastern Shore

Forecast Peak Growth Rates PJM Summer Peak Load PJM Winter Peak Load PPRP Summer Peak Base Case PPRP Summer Peak Low Case PPRP Summer Peak High Case BGE1.2%0.7% DPL1.9%1.4% PEPCO1.4%1.2% APS0.9%0.7% Maryland0.47%-0.05%1.00%