Undergraduate Student Persistence & Graduation advisor UI/WSU Advising Symposium September 9, 2011 Joel Michalski, Ph.D. Candidate & Karla Makus, Academic Coordinator Research by: Dr. Vicki McCracken & Dr. Diem Nguyen School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University

Whole Student If Advisors better understand the predictors of persistence and graduation, they can have an impact on improving both retention and graduation rates.

Undergraduate Student Persistence & Graduation The Overall Study Student persistence significantly affects time to degree and probability of graduation. The research which serves as the basis of this presentation uses WSU institutional data (cohorts of new freshmen) and appropriate statistical procedures to analyze student  Persistence (Part 1)  Graduation (Part 2)

Undergraduate Student Persistence Objectives Identify factors which affect the  risks of students departing (leave school before degree completion)  probabilities of student returning, given that they have departed before degree completion Identify implications of interest to Advisors and Retention Counselors

Undergraduate Student Persistence Definitions Departure refers to leaving before degree completion. If the student returns, then the departure is a stopout. Spells are the time periods of enrollment or departure. Analyzed here are:  Spell 1 – 1 st enrollment period  Spell 2 – 1 st departure period  Spell 3 – 2 nd enrollment period  Spell 4 – 2 nd departure period Our focus is on Persistence (follows students over time) and not simply on Retention (at a single point in time).

Data Data of 2 cohorts of first-time freshman students, started in Fall 2002 and Fall 2003  5841 students observed and followed for 12 semesters  2315 students left WSU (before completion) during their first enrollment spell  Of those who left (at any time before graduation)  16% left during or after their 1 st semester  26% …. 2 nd semester  7%.… 8 th semester

Distribution of Students

The sample estimated hazard profile indicates that:  The highest risk of leaving school is during their first year in college.  Departure is more likely to occur than return.  The longer the student has enrolled the less likely he/she will leave, except after the 8 th semester at which time there is an increase in departure without graduation!

Key Findings Student departure is strongly associated with poor high school academic performance (HS GPA). Students with higher SAT/ACT scores have lower risk of first departure. College grade performance (Spell GPA) is the most important and consistent factor that reduces the risk of departure and increases the probability of return. During the first enrollment spell, students in STEM disciplines are less likely to leave.

Key Findings continued... Fulltime enrollment, Greek system affiliation, and Athletic Status all significantly reduce the risk of first departure (other factors equivalent). Hispanic students are more likely to leave (relative to Caucasians). No significant gender differences were found in the risk of leaving, but females are less likely to return if they left before graduation. WA-residency status significantly lowers the risk of first departure. During the first enrollment spell, students receiving financial aid (Pell and loan) in general are more likely to persist.

Conclusions The negative significant impacts of HS GPA and SAT/ACT on departure suggest that admission standards based on these factors may result in higher retention rates. BUT … other things are important. Early assessment and monitoring of student grade performance critical! A successful retention policy should focus on part- time students and Hispanic students. For low income students - increase early financial support. Discounted tuition policy for WA residents helps with retention.

Undergraduate Student Graduation Objectives Identify factors which affect the probability of graduation, and at different lengths of time-to- degree completion (eg., 4 years, 5 years, 6 years) Emphasize importance of looking at multiple factors, and not just focusing on single factors. Identify implications of interest to Advisors and Retention Counselors

Data Data for 2 cohorts of first-time freshman students, started in Fall 2002 and Fall 2003  5841 students observed and followed for 12 semesters  1894 (or 32%) had not graduated at the end of 12 semesters – considered censored observations.  Some still enrolled at WSU during their 13 th semester  Others had departed with no intention of returning to WSU: At other institutions either still enrolled or graduated Dropped out of higher education

Methodology Data included information about student prior to enrollment, after 1 st semester, and at end of all subsequent semesters until 12 th semester. Survival analysis techniques are applied to identify factors affecting student success at WSU, regarding timely degree completion and probability of degree attainment.  Different models used depending upon student success measure:  Accelerated Failure Time Model  Logistic Model  Cox-Hazard Model  Multinomial Logit Model

Models All parametric multivariate models include the same vector of predictor variables: Race/Ethnicity, Gender, Age, Residency HSGPA, SAT/ACT, first semester GPA (adjusted) Pell eligibility, Fulltime Varsity Athlete, Greek Affiliation, Honors College Simultaneously taking Biology/Chemistry/Math; in a STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) discipline Transferred running-start credits Stopout indicator.

Graduation Profiles

Key Findings Positive Impact: Increases Probability of Graduation (assumes other factors for a student are equivalent): Higher HS GPA (and reduces time to degree) Higher first-semester GPA Varsity Athlete status/participation (with athletes having much higher odds of graduation in their fifth year than other students) Larger average semester amount of student loan Students in the STEM discipline WA-residency status Negative Impact: Lowers Probability of Graduation (assumes other factors for a student are equivalent): Non-continuous enrollment status Federal Pell Grant eligibility

More Key Findings Students taking Biology/Chemistry/Math all in the first semester graduate at similar rates as their counterparts. SAT/ACT is not a significant graduation factor. Despite differences in graduation by race/ethnicity, these variables are not significant in the multivariate analyses, except for the Hispanic group.

Conclusions The empirical results suggest an admission process selecting students based on individual potential for success should consider factors in addition to high school GPA and SAT/ACT. Retention efforts should identify students based on other risk factors (in addition to high school GPA and SAT), such as financial aid, residency, housing, enrollment status, running-start, etc.

Summarizing the results of the study: – part time enrollment increases risk of departure. – students in the STEM discipline are less likely to leave. – students in sports & Greek system are less likely to leave. – WA-residency status significantly lowers the risk of first departure. – Hispanic students are more likely to leave before graduation. – students who came in with transfer credit are more likely to depart but are more likely to graduate if they stay

Contributors to Presentation Dr. Vicki McCracken, Professor, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University Dr. Diem Nguyen, former PhD student whose dissertation research serves as the basis for this presentation Fran Hermanson, Interim Director, Institutional Research, Washington State University, partner in data provision and in framing the research questions. Thanks!