The Future of Social Care Richard Humphries Councillor’s and Trustees’ Seminar, Solihull, 5-6 th February 2009

Summary - background to the project where we are now what is driving change scenarios for the future engaging you

“You can never plan the future by the past.” Edmund Burke, 1791

Where are we now ? services have improved more resources but pattern of provision hasn’t changed much no significant shift to independent living in community innovations e.g. telecare, individual budgets expanding rapidly but from low baseline concern about access to services concern about variations in services pace of ‘transformation’ is slow the ‘invisible’ economy of social care

What will drive change ? the future of social care ? Demography Public Policy Technology & science Social & lifestyle changes Economic trends Political framework

Demography total population is growing half of growth = inward migration working population will reduce more older people and ‘oldest old’ more illness and disability learning disability – up to 113,000 more people over next 10 years more older people living alone greater burden on carers increased ethnic diversity

Public Policy public service reform personalisation & ‘Putting People First’ transformation of adult social care ‘future of care & support’ Green Paper - forthcoming

Political framework traditionally a consensus across political parties personalisation supported by all major parties ditto role of third sector & social enterprise ditto closer health & social care partnerships Green Paper on funding - ?????? and pre-election debate may sharpen policy conflicts timing & outcome of next General Election ??????

Social & lifestyle shifts the ‘babyboomers’ new patterns of wealth and inheritance ‘invisible’ economy of social care boosted information-hungry, wanting choice & control comfortable with using technology to procure goods and services…and to enhance lifestyle higher, and different, expectations of public services publicly-funded care – a poor service for poor people ? ??

Technology applying technology to how public services are delivered e.g. ICT & ‘transforming government’ applying technology to care services e.g. assistive technology, telecare creating platforms for self-directed support e.g. shop4support, slivers of time use of Web 2.0 to re-engage citizens with public organisations continuing advances in medical science impact of human genome project, stem cell research, biotechnology ???????

Economic trends higher demand for social care <recession Councils spending up, income down care providers – access to capital charities – reduced income & giving effect on future government funding recession may force difficult choices (Green Paper)

Questions how important are each of these forces for change ? what is missing ? together, what kind of future social care system might they shape ? - scenarios how should RiPfA take this work forward ?

Thank you