Mexico 2050 Calculator Training Week – th August 2013

Our objectives for this week Objectives for this week What would you like to learn? Why build a 2050 Calculator?

1.We want you to be confident you understand the 2050 Calculator methodology… 2.… so that you can easily explain it to others. 3.Agree a structure for the Mexico 2050 Calculator and a plan to deliver it 4.Show that you can get quick results, which can then be refined 5.And have fun Objectives for this week

Our objectives for this week Objectives for this week What would you like to learn? Why build a 2050 Calculator?

Have a simple tool that is actually used Link up 2050 with practical things that can occur in the medium/short term Have something that is integrated, and shared with people outside of the government Need to focus on energy efficiency as well as generation Pathways to 2050 need to influence the short term Need to strengthen institutional modelling capacity Not just quantitative work – but take into account “soft issues” like politics or new fossil fuel discoveries 2020, 2024, 2026 targets could be influenced by the Calculator. And how do you track progress to this. How do you include renewables in this, and how does the private sector fit into this. What would you like to learn?

There is a lot of renewable potential out there What would you like to learn?

Our objectives for this week Objectives for this week What would you like to learn? Why build a 2050 Calculator?

Situation in the UK before we built the Calculator There was an ill-informed debate in the UK about our energy system and we wanted to answer a number of questions including but not limited to: 1.How much energy can we supply from different energy technologies? 2.How much energy do different sectors use and how can we change this? 3.What is the cost of different energy pathways? 4.Which sectors are the one we should focus on? Which are less important? 5.Can we achieve our emissions target? 6.What impact would different pathways have on our air quality and land area? 7.What could happen to our energy dependency and security? 8.What is publically acceptable?

The 2050 Calculator enabled us to have an energy literate debate

Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4 No effort (not business as usual) Effort described by most stakeholders as achievable Effort needing significant change – hard but deliverable The maximum possible due to physical/ practical constraints only (similar to ‘technical potential’) We used these broad guidelines for developing the trajectories in each sector. Clearly, there is an element of judgement, particularly when comparing very different sectors. The aim is to achieve broadly comparable levels of effort in each trajectory across the different sectors The Calculator was different. It explores what is possible not what you think will happen

Excel Spreadsheet Web Tool My2050 Technical expert stakeholders and policy-makers Technical expert stakeholders and well-informed public Educational tool and initial engagement for members of the public Product Audience Complexity 2050 Analysis 11 And it provides different levels of detail depending on the audience

12 After the publication of the first basic tool, the UK 2050 Team met the Queen. We were awarded the Science, Engineering and Technology award at the Civil Service Awards, Buckingham Palace. Even one for the Queen……

Ambitious per capita energy demand reduction is needed – but is not sufficient 1 Substantial electrification of heating, transport and industry is needed2 Electricity supply needs to be almost totally decarbonised, while supply may also need to double 3 A growing level of variable renewable generation increases the challenge of balancing the electricity grid 4 Sustainable bioenergy is a vital part of a low carbon energy system5 Reduction in emissions from agriculture, waste, industrial processes and international transport will be necessary by Fossil fuels will continue to play an important role7 The UK has used the Calculator to find common messages about our world in 2050

Messages which have been published in our long term strategy

And this philosophy has been adapted and improved by others State of work Published UKBelgiumChinaSouth Korea Team started work South AfricaBangladeshIndiaBrazil Agreement in place MexicoIndonesia Advanced discussions VietnamThailandAlgeriaColombia Initial discussions but nothing concrete PhilippinesNigeriaMalaysiaEthiopia

China is going through a similar process now to come up with its main messages To show how China meets Xiaokang Society (a term introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979 as the eventual goal of Chinese modernization) by What needs to happen if China energy consumption is to peak by 2030; 2 China 2050 pathways for low carbon development and the associated Emission Reduction Policy and Commitment 3 China 2050 non-fossil fuel energy development pathways4 China 2030/2050 Energy Independent Development Pathways (less reliance on imports) 5 They are using it for China’s 2050 energy development strategy 6

What do you think the Mexico version will look like? ?1 ?2 ?3 ?4 ?5 ?6