Class 9 – Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective Dr. Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira (Postdoctoral Researcher) IRI-USP, São Paulo, 18 April 2016

 Brazil’s limitations  Mistake in trying to re-shape structural power without much economic power  inverted equation;  Brazil can be considered a middle power if in the long run it does not side much with either US or China;  Middle power  favors the status quo...  Next would-be status quo...  Is it the case of South Africa?

 Post-Apartheid Modernization ( ) Focus on achieving racial equality domestically and globally; 2. Transition under economic liberalism and US unipolarity “The former’s imprint on the foreign policy agenda is manifested in South Africa’s prioritisation of Africa, its almost messianic zeal to modernise the continent through a focus on political stability and economic growth, and its desire to reform the global order so as to create an enabling environment for African development” (Habib, 2009: 143).

 The Rainbow Nation?

 Closer to China?

 What did South Africa export in 2014?

 Where did South Africa export to in 2014?

 What did South Africa export to China in 2014?

 Far from the West? : “There was a growing trend away from the bridge-building role between North and South that had characterised South Africa’s foreign engagement earlier… South Africa’s more strident views regarding the developed world… were partly the result of the US’s more unilateralist approach after 9/11. However, there were two additional reasons: the changing global geopolitical landscape, which saw new developing world powers begin to re-assert themselves; and South Africa’s own need to emphasise its identity as an African and a developing state...” (Sidropoulos, 2011: 110)

 How strong?

 Ahead in the continent, but...

 Challengers in Africa?

 Experience Matters: Participation on BASIC and IBSA (Stuenkel, 2014: 46).  Prior to BRICS formation as a bloc  Helped to be invited by other BRICS  IBSA as an environment for "soft issues"  BRICS use IBSA expertise on social and domestic challenges  Lack of military ambition (or power) matters too?

 Nuclear program voluntarily abandoned (1989)

 Southern African Development Community (SADC)

 SADC was founded in 1992

 Competition with China?

 Southern African Development Community (SADC)

 Domestic Challenges

Composite Index of National Capability (CINC)  Share in the world of:  Total population;  Urban population;  Iron and steel production;  Energy consumption;  Military personnel;  Military expenditure.  capabilities/national-material-capabilities-v4-0

CINC ( )

 Out of the BRICS?

 The Party is Over!!!