Assessment Based National Dialogue Exercise: process, tools and country experiences V. Schmitt and S. Satriana 25 April 2013

Structure of the presentation Objectives Process and stakeholders Details on the three steps of the ABND The ABND Guide What’s next?

The Assessment Based National Dialogue (ABND) uses the SPF framework to facilitate: Comprehensive assessment of the existing social protection provisions Identifying the gaps in the current system and providing recommendations Identification of policy options to reach SPF & calculate the cost, financing options With the contribution of all stakeholders

What do we want to know? “Is the social protection floor a reality?” Full achievement of the SPF !!  Still some gaps  recommendations to the government to reach the full accomplishment of the SPF

“Is the social protection floor a reality?”  DO all residents have access to essential health care?  DO all children enjoy income security through transfers in cash or kind  access to nutrition, education and care?  DO all those in active age groups who cannot earn sufficient income enjoy a basic income security? (particularly in case of sickness, unemployment, maternity, disability)  DO all residents in old age have income security through pensions or transfers in kind?

In many ASEAN countries “Is the social protection floor a reality?” Population Level of protection Poor Rest of informal sectorFormal sector

Example: Do all residents have access to health care in Lao PDR? Population SSOSSO SASSSASS Poor Rest of informal sectorFormal sector CBHI MNCH HEF ???

Structure of the presentation Objectives Process and stakeholders Details on the three steps of the ABND The ABND Guide What’s next?

“Is the social protection floor a reality?” 1. What is the Social Security Situation? 2. How far are we from the achievement of the SPF? -> gaps, issues 3. What should be done to complete the floor? 4. How much would it cost today and in the future? 5. Can the Government afford it? Do we need to increase the fiscal space? 6. How to ensure that the recommendations are endorsed and listen to? 7. How to advocate for the SPF as a whole or specific recommendations? (ROR…)

ASSESSMENT FACTSHEET: Step 1 – Building the assessment matrix including the identification of priority recommendations Step 2 – Rapid Assessment Protocol to estimate the cost of implementing the social protection provisions Step 3 – Finalisation of the assessment report for endorsement and further action by the higher levels of government “Is the social protection floor a reality?”

Stakeholders (ex of Thailand) ILO led UN SPF team, including: UNICEF UNDP UNFPA WHO UN WOMEN UNESCO UN RCO UN/RTG Team on social protection RTG group chaired by MSDHS, under National commission on social welfare, chaired by PM: Ministry of Labour Ministry of Finance Ministry of Interior Ministry of Education Ministry of Public Health NESDB… UNPAF on social protection ( ) Civil society Workers and employers representatives Decentralized governments Statistics office, Academia

1. Inventory of schemes (June 2011) 2. Draft Assessment Matrix (July 2011) 3. Dialogue # 1 on ABND matrix (August 2011) 4. Translation of policy recommendations into “costable” scenarios 5. Dialogue # 2 on proposed scenarios (November 2011, February 2012) 6. Data collection for the RAP protocol and costing of the scenarios (Nov March 2012) 7. Dialogue # 3 on results of costing (March 2012); Training on costing (May 2012) 9. Endorsement by UN/RTG joint team and launch with the government (Oct today) 8. Finalization of Costing, Fiscal space, Writing ABND report (May- August 2012) ABND Process Thailand Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

Structure of the presentation Objectives Process and stakeholders Details on the three steps of the ABND The ABND Guide What’s next?

STEP 1: Building assessment matrix SPF objectives Existing SP provisions Planned SP provisions (strategy) Policy gaps Implement- ation issues Recomm- endations Health Children Working age Elderly Four SPF guarantees Identifying existing situation in the country Identifying policy gaps and implementation issues, addressing which would complete the SPF Priority policy options, to be decided through national dialogue

STEP 1: Building assessment matrix Policy gaps = Missing legislation or policy leading to the exclusion of a share of the population from some parts of the floor Only formal sector workers and the very poor are entitled to social health protection There is no Unemployment protection scheme in case of loss of employment (for all workers) Only formal sector workers are entitled to a child allowance for their pre-school children

STEP 1: Building assessment matrix Implementation issue = Despite existing policy or legislation, the effective access has not yet happen There is a lack of enforcement of the Social Security Act due to low compliance among employers to register their staff and lack of resource to reach out informal sector workers Despite universal access to social health protection people from rural areas have only limited protection due to poor health care infrastructures

From Step 1 to Step 2 2 Types of recommendations! Qualitative recommendations on the management of existing schemes, review targeting & registration mechanisms, introduce a social insurance scheme (unemployment insurance, pension system), conduct a tax reform, improve the quality of health or education … We need to conduct complementary studies We can use the RAP Protocol Recommendations = Increase benefits or population covered, introduce new SPF benefits

STEP 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol What is it? What is it for? RAP is a simplified Excel tool developed by ILO to estimate the cost of providing SPF benefits (for health, children, working age and the elderly)

STEP 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol A set of excel sheets Labour market model (EAP) Demographic framework (POP) Macroeconomic model (ECO) General govt operations model (GGO) Costing of benefits Summary and results 1- Data collection 2- Cost calculation & projection Expression as % of GDP & Govt expenditure 3- Projected cost of combined benefit packages

STEP 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol How to use the RAP? Cost of implementing the scenarios is calculated using RAP work sheets Recommendations are translated into scenarios (specific social protection provisions) that need to be introduced or further expanded

STEP 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol How to use the RAP? The estimated cost can be linked to available fiscal space (government budget, GDP) to check the financial feasibility of recommendations

STEP 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol The additional cost of SPF packages expressed in % GDP and Government expenditure

STEP 2: Rapid Assessment Protocol Fiscal space analysis We add the cost projections of the proposed scenarios to the budget projections of the government in the GGO sheet : Case 1: The new projected budget is balanced: There is fiscal space Case 2: The new projected budget is in deficit: The fiscal space needs to be increased through (i) changes in budget allocations, (ii) an increase in Government revenues, e.g. through additional taxes (iii) alternative financing sources? In all cases the Government needs to be convinced that investing in the SPF is good for the country, growth, and other parameters

STEP 3: Finalization for endorsement Presenting the final report to higher levels of Government for endorsement and further action Government may conduct a pilot for testing the recommendations Or Government may conduct further feasibility studies: financial or actuarial studies legal framework review & revision personnel and capacity review Finalising the assessment report with stakeholders

DatesWhat? 02. Nov ‘12Meeting ILO + Minister of Labour; support from Minister (Padermchai) 06. DecInter-ministerial meeting; discussion of recommendations 14. DecMeeting ILO + Minister of Social Development (Santi Promphat) Meeting DG + Prime Minister (Yingluck), Minister of Labour 21. DecMeeting ILO + Deputy Permanent Secretary, MSDHS (Supaklerk) 17. Jan ‘13Inter-ministerial meeting; endorsement of recommendations 24. JanMeeting ILO + Deputy Secretary General, SSO (Arrug) 25. JanMeeting ILO + Permanent Secretary, MSDHS (Vichien). Green light. 08. FebMeeting ILO + Deputy SG NESDB (K. Suwanee). Green light. 12. FebMeeting of the Sub-committee on Policy and Planning (under the National Commission on Social Welfare) ; final comments on the ABND Feb./MarchFinalization Thai and English versions including acknowledgements from NESDB, MSDHS, MOL, CSOs March/AprilFinalization organization of the launch (PM Office, UNSPF team, ministries) and the publication (English and Thai) 10. MayLaunch (PM, ILO, UNRC, MOL, MSDHS, NESDB) STEP 3: Preparation of the launch in Thailand

Structure of the presentation Objectives Process and stakeholders Details on the three steps of the ABND The ABND Guide What’s next?

-Capitalization tool (guide/manual) at regional level (being finalized) -ASEAN regional training workshop “Assessment, Costing and Beyond” (October 2012) Oct’12Nov’ … … ABND Training Viet Nam Indonesia Thailand (Cambodia) Philippines Lao PDR Malaysia? Myanmar? Developing a methodology and guide

Structure of the presentation Objectives Process and stakeholders Details on the three steps of the ABND The ABND Guide What’s next?

UNPDF’s Working Group on Social Services Sub-working group on SPF UN / RTG Joint team on social protection IndonesiaThailand UNPAF on social protection

UN / Government teams on social protection: a replicable experience Objective: greater coherence and collaboration in the work of UN and government agencies on social protection activities Activities: – Producing, sharing, and archiving information (i.e. GESS web platform) – Capacity development initiatives – Conduct of the assessment exercise – Other SPF activities What’s required: – Focal point from each stakeholder – Lead agency(ies) on UN side and on Government side – Commitment to participate in meetings and activities