© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 6

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-2 Definitions public opinion: The politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that they express openly. political socialization: The learning process by which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs, and values. agents of socialization: Those agents, such as the family and the media, that have a significant impact on citizens’ political socialization. party identification: The personal sense of loyalty that an individual may feel toward a particular political party.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-3 Definitions ideology: A consistent pattern of opinion on particular issues that stems from a core belief or set of beliefs. economic liberals: Those who believe government should do more to assist people who have difficulty meeting their economic needs on their own. economic conservatives: Those who believe government tries to do too many things that should be left to private interests and economic markets. cultural (social) liberals: Those who believe it is not government’s role to buttress traditional values at the expense of unconventional or new values.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-4 Definitions cultural (social) conservatives: Those who believe government power should be used to uphold traditional values. libertarians: Those who believe government tries to do too many things that should be left to firms and markets, and who oppose government as an instrument for upholding traditional values. populists: Those who believe government should do more to assist people who have difficulty meeting their economic needs and who look to government to uphold traditional values.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-5 Definitions public opinion poll: A device for measuring public opinion whereby a relatively small number of individuals (the sample) are interviewed for the purpose of estimating the opinions of a whole community (the population). sample: In a public opinion poll, the relatively small number of individuals who are interviewed for the purpose of estimating the opinions of an entire population. population: In a public opinion poll, the people (for example, the citizens of a nation) whose opinions are being estimated through interviews with a sample of these people.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-6 Definitions sampling error: A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll. The sampling error is mainly a function of sample size and is usually expressed in percentage terms. Political culture: the characteristic and deep-seated beliefs of a particular people about government and politics

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-7 Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions Political values and beliefs that inform how we perceive the political process Process of how political opinions are formed (political socialization) The science of gathering and measuring public opinion (polling and its impact on government) Should elected representatives follow public opinion? To what extent?

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-8 Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions An aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of adults Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of action to express an opinion to others publicly Consensus: General Agreement Divisive opinion: Polarized on Different Positions

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-9 Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions An aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of adults Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of action to express an opinion to others publicly Consensus: General Agreement Divisive opinion: Polarized on Different Positions

Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning 10 Consensus Opinion Divisive Opinion

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions Opinion Split Along Group Lines Gender Race/Ethnicity Age Income Education

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions Why we behave the way we do politically Sources The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Church Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders’ Influence Media Presentation of Political Issues

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions Political socialization process Childhood learning is paramount Process is cumulative: political opinions and affiliations usually grow firmer with age Changes, when they do occur, often linked to events

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions Primary political socialization agents: Family Family is the strongest of all agents of socialization Impact of parents and other relatives Impact of family is strongest on political party choice Can children have an impact on parents’ political socialization? Schools Church Scholars have not studied the effects of religion as well as schools or family, but it is a powerful influence

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions Secondary political socialization agents: Peers Media Leaders Events

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: Opinion Leader One who is able to influence opinions of others because of position, expertise, or personality Formal: Elected officials, political party leaders Informal: Teachers, religious leaders, civic leaders

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning 17 MEDIA The media play a significant role in political socialization. The media present information on important political topics. How topics are presented and which topics are presented have a major impact in opinion formation.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: Events Political events can produce a long-lasting impact on opinion formation, especially among younger voters Examples: The impact of the Great Depression on people who came of age in that period. Vietnam War 9/11 We call such an impact a generational effect, or a cohort effect.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Political Socialization: Pride Pride in one’s nationality is an indicator of political socialization. American’s rank very high Pride in America instilled by many sources Family Media Politicians Patriotic Displays

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Frames of reference: reference points by which individuals evaluate issues and developments Important for two reasons Indicate how people think politically Basis for common cause When enough people have common frame of reference they have chance to exert political influence

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Party identification is a major frame of reference emotional loyalty to a political party; not formal membership Major shifts in loyalty rare Generally associated with great upheaval Concentrated among younger adults Can lead to selective perception (what a person sees) Candidates Issues

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Party identification in US Roughly 1/3 Democrat, 1/3 Republican, 1/3 Independents Most Independents lean to one party or the other Early studies concluded party identification change rare Later studies found change more likely than once thought Even so, many remain lifelong Democrats or Republicans Shifts have occurred in conjunction with big upheaval Shifts more likely among younger persons

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Party identification (partisanship) clearest divisive source of opinion for Americans Democrats and Republicans have divergent opinions on almost every major issue Budget (see 6-2_) Foreign Policy Healthcare Environment

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 6-24

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Recent surveys show more identify with Democratic Party than Republican Party nationwide But considerable variation among states (see page 193) Republican strength concentrated in the Plains, Rocky Mountains, and South Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas most Republican Democratic strength concentrated in the west coast, northeast, and the northern Midwest Hawaii, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont most Democratic

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning 26 Red States and Blue States

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Political ideology: A coherent set of political beliefs Few Americans have true political ideology, few would be considered to be ideologues Ideological leanings: Economic liberals/conservatives Social liberals/conservatives Populists and libertarians

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Americans did not embrace major 20 th century ideologies popular in Europe Socialism Fascism Communism According to Daniel Boorstin, we are Pragmatists Driven by desire to find solutions to problems

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Demographic Influences Education Economic Status Religious Influence: Denomination Religious Influence: Commitment Race and Ethnicity Gender Geography Age

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Measurement of Public Opinion The measurement of public opinion Election results Public opinion polls: primary method Measure public opinion using randomly chosen population sample(s) and carefully constructed interviews Samples—estimation of population’s views Accuracy of a poll—expressed by sampling error (The difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed)

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Measurement of Public Opinion The History of Opinion Polls 1800s: Straw Polls By the 1930s modern, relatively accurate polling techniques were developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and others.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Measurement of Public Opinion Polling Techniques Telephone polling is standard Internet Quota polls Push polls Attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a polltaker.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Measurement of Public Opinion Sampling Techniques Representative Sampling and sample size are key factors in accurate polling The Principle of Randomness A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error. Pollsters typically measure national public opinion based on a sample of about 1500 people, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Measurement of Public Opinion Problems with polls Increasing refusal to participate in telephone polls Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues Dishonesty by respondents Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer. Poorly worded questions and poor question order Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray. Non-opinions Sampling Error

Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning 35 Gallup Poll Accuracy Record

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy Disagreement over how much public opinion affects policy, and how much it should affect policy Limits on public influence Inconsistencies in citizens’ policy preferences Citizens’ lack of understanding of issues Mastery of issues not necessary for opinion to be of value, but some issues require understanding

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy The general public believes the leadership should pay attention to popular opinion. Leaders themselves are less likely to believe this. Setting Limits on Government Action Public opinion may be at its strongest in preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies.

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy Public opinion and the boundaries of action Some policy actions outside boundaries of public acceptability The greater the level of public involvement, the more likely officials will respond to public sentiment Even on popular issues, leaders have some discretion Leaders can influence public opinion through concerted effort

Copyright © 2009 Cengage Learning 39 Confidence in Institutions: Percentage of Americans Who Have a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of Confidence in Major U.S. Institutions

© 2013 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy In what ways have you been socialized politically? Compare and contrast your experiences with those of your classmates.