Chapter 11 Public Opinion and Political Socialization

What is Public Opinion? What the people think about an issue or set of issues at any given point in time and opinions are normally measured by opinion polls (combined opinions of adults toward issues of relevance to government)

Public Opinion and Public Socialization We will cover: What is Public Opinion? Political Socialization and other factors that influence opinion formation How we form political opinion How we measure public opinion How polling and public opinion affect politicians, politics, and policy

Characteristics of Public Opinion Fluid Opinion vs Stable Opinion Knowledge Intensity Characteristics Bimodal, Mulitmodal Committed action Distribution

Table 11.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge?

Table 11.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues?

Figure 11.4: What are the ideological self- identifications of first-year college students?

Political Socialization The process through which an individual acquires particular political orientations The learning process by which people acquire their political beliefs and values

Political Socialization The way people acquire their political values Family members School and peers Media, especially television Religion Demographics: race, ethnicity, gender, age, and region Outside events

Factors that Influence Opinion Formation Many factors influence opinion formation Why are some agents more important than others (time spent-message communicated-responsive to agent) (primacy and structuring principles) Family: (Mass Media, School and Peers, Impact of Events) Social Groups: (Religion, Race, Gender, Region) We hear what we want to hear and see what we want to see People’s perceptions are their reality

Public Opinion Polls Polls (surveys) are interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue or set of issues

History of Public Opinion Polls Successes of Literary Digest from Used Straw Polls to make predictions Literary Digest was incorrect in 1936, error in their sample George Gallup made correct prediction Gallup was a pioneer in scientific public opinion polls Continues to be successful today

Conducting Public Opinion Polls Determining content and phrasing questions Selecting sample Common methods are random or stratified sampling Contacting respondents Random digit dialing is most popular

Measuring Public Opinion In general, do not trust a pol that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents and the error rate (+ or - 5%) Any poll that tells you to call for yes and for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all...

Figure 11.3: Why does question wording matter?

Types of Polls Tracking Polls - continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends Exit Polls- polls conducted at a polling place on election day Deliberative Polls- a new kind of poll first tried in A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy. A Deliberative Poll attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider the issues first.

Types of Political Polls Push Polls- are used to influence opinion Tracking Polls- taken on a daily basis Exit Polls- taken after leaving a polling place

Figure 11.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like?

Shortcomings of Polling Must consider margin of error May make errors in selecting the sample Polls limit respondents’ options People may not have enough information to answer Measures of intensity may be imprecise

Figure 11.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been?

Effects of Public Opinion May influence the course of public policy Some critics argue this weakens democracy Creation of bandwagon and underdog effects