Working Futures The UK labour market in 2020 Labour Market Statistics User Group 20 March 2012

What is the purpose of Working Futures? To understand labour market prospects over next 10 years Supports better informed learning and labour markets; not a basis for workforce planning Uses Choices by individuals around careers and learning Careers and skills advice Basis for collective action, investment by employers Curriculum strategies of providers Strategic outlook of policymakers at national and local level (e.g. LEPs) UK Commission evidence base

Working Futures 2011 What are the key features? CharacteristicDescription Purpose To understand labour market prospects for next ten years – “where will future jobs come from”? Most detailed and comprehensive set of UK labour market projections available Approach Produced by Institute for Employment Research, Cambridge Econometrics Draws on key ONS LM products Projections derived from full macro-economic model Indicative of general trends and orders of magnitude based on past patterns of behaviour International standard Key “lenses” Industry, occupation, qualification level, gender, employment status, nation / region, sub-region (e.g. LEP area) Outputs UK full main report, including national breakdowns Sectoral report Technical report Micro-data available online via data portal

What are the key messages? Sector output and employment growth rates, Employment growth NB: Size of bubble denotes number employed in 2010 Output growth Growing output Declining employment Growing output Growing employment Declining output Declining employment Declining output Growing employment

What are the key messages? Job openings by occupation – 2010 to 2020 Source: Working Futures

Conclusions Modest overall growth in employment Growth driven primarily by services Continuing polarisation of the labour market Replacement demands the key source of job openings

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