Impacts of climate change in the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere on the thermosphere and ionosphere Ingrid Cnossen GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Potsdam, Germany

Relevance to society – why do we care? Satellites operate in the upper atmosphere (  km) Population of space debris growing – collisional hazard Satellite orbit and safety depend on upper atmosphere climate change Recent BBC news article and documentary on space debris

The issue: Climate change in the upper atmosphere Observed cooling and contraction Reduction in air density at fixed height by  2-2.5% per decade Increases lifetime of space debris by up to 25% Known contributing factors only explain about 60-70% of the observed trend in density at 400 km Density trend at 400 km altitude Figure courtesy of John Emmert

Project goal: Quantify effects of lower/middle atmosphere climate change troposphere stratosphere mesosphere thermosphere, ionosphere Climate change in the lower/middle atmosphere affects Wave generation Wave propagation (stratosphere, mesosphere) Key unquantified factor in upper atmosphere climate change Address with the extended Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtension (WACCM-X)

Expected outcomes and impacts 20 km 50 km 90 km 500 km km Outcomes Quantified the effect of climate change in the lower and middle atmosphere on the upper atmosphere (1950s-2050s) Determined how much of observed trends can be attributed to this Provided future projections of upper atmosphere climate change Impacts Determined impacts on the evolution of the space debris population Fed into policy decisions on space debris mitigation strategies

Collaborative network: Complementing and enhancing science at BAS and beyond Ingrid Hua Lu (BAS) gravity waves Andrew Orr Tracy Moffat-Griffin Andrew Kavanagh (BAS) vertical dynamical coupling Hugh Lewis (Univ. Southampton) whole atmosphere modelling Hanli Liu (NCAR) space debris Ana Elias Blas de Haro (Univ. Tucuman) Shunron Zhang (MIT Haystack) upper atmosphere trends ISSI team (various, incl. BAS) North-South asymmetry

International leadership and initiatives Co-organisor of the 8th Workshop on Long-term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere Guest associate editor for JGR Atmospheres/Space Physics for special section; now on search committee for JGR-Atmospheres Editor-in-Chief Co-leader of an International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team on North-South asymmetries in the upper atmosphere Supervised 4 summer students to date and applied for PhD student ISSI team meeting in Bern, Dec 2014Long-term Trends workshop, Cambridge, July 2014

Recognized international expert Invited reviews 1 st and 2 nd author on two invited reviews in Space Science Reviews (submitted) Invited to contribute a chapter for the next release of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA) Invited collaborations Co-I on a funded ESA project led by Eelco Doornbos (TU Delft, Netherlands) on satellite re-entry predictions Collaborator on a funded grant by Jürgen Matzka (GFZ Potsdam, Germany) on long-term trends in ionospheric currents Member of a new international ISSI team on long-term change in the upper atmosphere, led by Shunrong Zhang (MIT Haystack, USA) Give a lecture at the International School of Space Science (L’Aquila, Italy, Sep 2015)

Research vision and career development during IRF and beyond Work towards a comprehensive picture of climate change in the (upper) atmosphere More emphasis on prediction, future scenarios Better representation of vertical coupling processes in models Build a group Apply for PhD students, post-docs, summer students Extend my network New collaborations at BAS and University of Southampton Forge links with the satellite industry Gain further leadership experience Nominate myself to become part of the governing body of the UK Magnetosphere Ionosphere Solar-Terrestrial (MIST) community in 2017

Summary and concluding remarks I will address a key question in upper atmosphere climate science: What is the role of the lower and middle atmosphere? Unquantified factor in upper atmosphere long-term change Impact on space debris mitigation strategies I have demonstrated scientific leadership, e.g.: Secured funding Organized meetings Guest associate editor for JGR Atmospheres/Space Physics Supervised students In demand for collaboration, invited talks, reviews, etc. I have a clear plan to further develop my career and research Work towards a comprehensive understanding of climate change in the (upper) atmosphere, focusing more on prediction Apply for PhD/post-doc/summer student funding to build a group Reach out to satellite industry to achieve impact