Migration and Social Conditions in Bulgaria Sociological Program Center for the Study of Democracy June 2014

Migration Trends in Bulgaria High outflow of emigrants permanent emigrants temporary labor emigrants seasonal workers highly mobile highly qualified workers students’ migration developed transnational networks ongoing process of return migration Moderate inflow of immigrants less than 1 % from the overall population in 2013 higher share of women originating from neighboring countries

The Say of Statistics: Eurostat Population Statistics and EU Labor Force Survey 1 Romanians – 27% Intra-EU Movers by Nationality Poles – 21%(2010) Germans – 5%Other EU citizens – 18% French – 5% Bulgarians – 5% Romanian and Polish citizens Brits – 5%form almost 50% of intra-EU Italians – 4%movers Portuguese – 4% Dutch - 3% Lithuanians – 3%

Post-Accession Mobility of citizens from BG and RO Citizens from BG and RO resident in EU-25 Before 2007After mln. 2.9 mln.(80% Romanians) Average net growth (persons per year) ( ) ( ) Bulgarians - Main Destinations - Romanians Spain - 38%Italy – 41% Germany – 15%Spain – 38% Greece – 12%Germany – 5% Italy – 10% 63 % - reside in Spain and Italy UK – 7% 38% - in Spain 25,5% - in Italy

Labor Mobility from BG and RO was already significant before 2007 Outflow as % of the country’s working population Bulgarians Romanians Since %6.6% Since % 3.1%

Inflows in the EU-15 countries are shaped by the trends in the economy EU EU EU Non-EU EU-2 mobility: -already significant before not significantly bigger than EU-10 mobility -lower than non-EU-27 mobility

Impact of mobility by EU-2 nationals GDP per capita is at a boost (2004 – 2009) EU-27 (+ 0.2%); EU-15 (+ 0.4%); Spain (+ 1.7%); Italy (+ 1.3%) Impact on public finances is negligible or positive (national level) Impact on wages of local workers (negative) EU-15: – 0.24% decrease due to EU-2 mobility (short term) decrease due to EU-2 mobility (long term) Spain: - 0.7% decrease Italy: - 0.7% decrease

Third Country Nationals in Bulgaria 2 YearNumber of TCN Share of Women % % % % %

Third Country Nationals by Top Countries of Citizenship CountryNumberPercentage Total % Russian Federation % Turkey % Ukraine % Macedonia % Armenia % Moldova %

The Moderate Volume of Immigrants and the Economic Situation in Bulgaria Main indicators Employment rate70.7 %63.6 % Unemployment rate 5.6 %13 % Average salary300 EUR433 EUR

Main Trends in Refugee Migration 3 Average inflow of 1000 asylum seekers (up until 2012) Abrupt increase of asylum applications in 2013 (five times bigger inflow as compared to 2012) Speedy establishment of reception infrastructure adequate to the increased volume of asylum Seekers

Main Trends in Refugee Migration 1993 – May 2014 Demographic Profile Men63 %68 %51 % Women14 %19 %32 % Children23 %13 %17 % Recognition and Refusal Rates Granted refugee status – (13%) Granted humanitarian status – (27 %) Refusals – (22 %)

Asylum Applications by Top Countries of Origin – May 2014 Total N of asylum applications – Syria (22.5 %) Afghanistan (21 %) Iraq (18 %) Armenia (6 %) Stateless (5.7 %)

Population of Bulgaria according to Census Results for a period of 26 years: persons

Census Results 2011 In г. the population of Bulgaria is persons. Of them: 51.3% women and 48.7% men 72.5% living in the cities and 27.5% in the villages Between 2001 и 2011 г. the country population decreased by ▫ two thirds of this decrease (68.9%) is due to negative population growth ▫ one third of this decrease (31.1%) is due to external emigration of persons.

Census Results 2011 – Ethnic and Religious Structure of the Population Bulgarian ethnic group persons 84.8% Turkish ethnic group persons 8.8% Roma ethnic group persons 4.9 % Orthodox Christians 76 % Muslims10 %

Social and Economic Development Roma in Bulgaria – RomaNon-Roma ENROLMENT RATE Pre-school38 %77 % Compulsory education (7-15 years of age)82 %85 % Upper-secondary education (16 – 19 years of age)39 %67 %

Social and Economic Development Roma in Bulgaria RomaNon-Roma EMPLOYMENT Employment rate (15-64 years of age)42 % 57 % Unemployment rate ( years of age)35 %20 % Informal Employment Incidence (15 – 64 years of age)53 %14 %

Social and Economic Development Roma in Bulgaria RomaNon-Roma HEALTH Access to medical insurance 49 % 87 % No access to essential drugs 69 %20 %

Social and Economic Development Roma in Bulgaria RomaNon-Roma MIGRATION Migration History1 % 2 % Support from abroad9 %4 % Migration Intention20 %10 % Migration TargetsDE (18 %)UK (20 %) EL (17 %)DE (20 %) ES (14 %)IT (10 %)

Sources 1. Sources for Slides 3-7: Hollnd, et. al (2011) Labor Mobility within the EU – The Impact of Enlargement and the functioning of the transitional arrangements, National Institute of Economic and Social Research – UK; Report from the Commission to the Council on on the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements on Free Movement of Workers from BG and RO (COM(2011) 729 final. 2. Source for slides 8-10: National Statistical Institute 3. Source for slides : State Agency for Refugees 4. Source for slides 15-17: National Statistical Institute 5. Source for slides 18-21: UNDP-World Bank Survey 2011 and EU Agency for Fundamental Rights Survey Both surveys were conducted on a random sample of Roma and non-Roma households living in areas with higher density (or concentration) of Roma populations in Bulgaria.