SYRIA: THE FORGOTTEN CIVILIAN DIMENSION December 17, 2015 Nadim Houry

 Cannot understand it by simply relying on a terrorism framework  At least 6 layers that interact  Opposition to Assad Rule (political, economic)  Majority/Minority dynamics  The place of the Kurds in Syria  The Rise of Jihadi Groups  The regional competition: Iran, Saudi, Turkey  The international dimension: US withdrawing from Middle East, Russia’s new role

 Crackdown with some half-hearted reforms  Race to rebuild wall of fear, mass arrests, shooting of protesters  Sectarian violence in July 2011 in Homs  By August 2011, government killed almost 2,000  September: Increase in militarization of opposition. ▪ particularly in border towns (Tal Kalakh) ▪ At least 53 members of Syria’s security forces (police, mukhabarat, and army) died in Syria between May and September 2011 (SANA)  October: First Russia/China veto  December: 5,400 dead (according to OHCHR)

 Military Solution: January 2012  From Counterinsurgency to Collective Punishment  February: Shelling of Baba Amro  July: Home demolitions; first use of cluster munitions; airstrikes; increase in torture

September 2012 October 2012

 Further militarization of opposition, more areas fall outside control of regime  HRW writes to opposition in March 2012 about violations (attacks against places of workship, minorities)  Refugee flows increase  Regionalization  “Friends of Syria” conferences  Second Russia/China veto in February 2012

 August 2013:  Armed groups attacks on Northern Lattakia  Gov Chemical attack on Ghouta  Increased regionalization  May 2013: Hezbollah increases involvement  More foreign fighters  Rise of ISIS  Takes over Raqqa in Summer 2013

 Security Council Resolution 2139  Indiscriminate Attacks  Detainees  Humanitarian Aid  Some improvement on humanitarian aid. No movement on indiscriminate attacks and detainees

Map of Large Impact Sites in Aleppo since UN Resolution 2139 (22 February 2014 to 6 June 2015)

 September 30, 2015: Direct air strikes  Areas of Concern:  Possible indiscriminate attacks  Possible transfer of weapons

 Negotiations on what terms?  Confidence building measures  Indiscriminate attacks must stop ▪ Barrel bombs, shelling, car bombs, cluster munitions  Detention ▪ Monitors ▪ Release of arbitrarily held detainees  Allowing aid to besieged areas  Accountability