The Global Water System Project Eric Craswell GWSP – IPO Bonn

Global Water System Project

What is Global Change? Global Change is more than Climate Change It has natural PLUS human dimensions A constellation of changes, many global in domain, e.g. U.S. Bureau of the Census NOAA Vitousek (1994) Mackenzie et al (2002) Richards (1991), WRI (1990) Reid & Miller (1989)

The Framing Committee Joseph Alcamo (Chair), Hartmut Grassl, Pavel Kabat, Felino Lansigan, Richard Lawford, Dennis Lettenmaier, Christian Leveque, Michel Meybeck, Robert Naiman, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Charles Vörösmarty Scoping Team Carlo Jaeger, Dennis Lettenmaier, Christian Leveque, Harry Lins, Michel Meybeck, Madiodio Niasse, and Charles Vörösmarty

The GWSP - Why? Is there a global water system? The physical global water cycle The coupling with global biogeochemical cycles (e.g. N, C) The coupling with worldwide dynamics of society (“globalization”) e.g. Economic policies  water resource development projects  water diversions  water storage  change of aquatic habitat  impact on ecosystems/biodiversity  impacts on society Working definition The global suite of water-related human, physical, biological, and biogeochemical components and their interactions.

The Global Water System Project: Why? Large-scale Changes e.g. large changes in the N cycle:  Increased N storage (e.g. in reservoirs)  Increased N release (e.g. increased N loading from agricultural activities) Worldwide parallel changes e.g. - Eutrophication - Erosion  sedimentation - Intensive water withdrawals  increased evaporation & transpiration  changes in regional water balance System changes Land use changes  changes in regional climate  changes in regional water balance  new changes in regional climate  new changes in land use  and so on

Dynamics of the GWS

Hoover Dam, USGS 1984 Mechanisms by which humans are affecting the GWS reservoirs, withdrawal, transfers, resulting in stop- flow events, changes in nutrient and sediment fluxes etc.

Magnitudes of global-scale changes in the GWS Alcamo et al, 2003 Green et al, 2003 Gordon, 2003 Water Stress Scenario for, 2020 Changing ET from deforestation & irrigation

Coastal Zones The disappearing pristine coast defined by low (<10/km 2 ) population density and low (<5%) cropland use Buddemeier 2001 LOICZ assessing fluxes from the land to the sea

Ecosystems / biodiversity freshwater biodiversity assessment relation to global changes ecosystem resilience and adaptation Smakhtin et al, 2003

Central Tenet of the Project: Human-induced changes to the global water system are now globally significant and are being modified without adequate understanding of how the system works. The GWSP - Why?

HUMAN COMPONENTS e.g. water related institutions, water engineering works, water use sectors WATER CYCLING PHYSICAL COMPONENTS e.g. moisture transport, precipitation, river discharge, water storage volumes BIOLOGICAL & BIOGEOCHEMICAL COMPONENTS e.g. species richness, habitat quality, water quality The Global Water System

1.Focus on global environmental change 2.Human dimensions 3.Global in its perspective but drawing from regional case studies 4.Integrative & interdisciplinary 5.Past-present-future time domains 6.Science driven but policy-relevant 7.Focus on fresh water rather than marine systems Defining the GWSP ”niche” in the field: Global Water System Project

I. What are the magnitudes and mechanisms of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the GWS? II. What are the main linkages and feedbacks within the Earth system, arising from changes in the GWS ? III. How resilient and adaptable is the GWS to change, and what are sustainable management strategies ? Framing questions / themes Global Water System Project

Theme 1: Magnitudes and Mechanisms of Change. Activity 1.1: Water Governance and the Global Water System. Activity 1.2: Land Cover Changes and the Global Water System. Activity 1.3: Climate Change and the Global Water System. Activity 1.4: Water Diversions and the Global Water System. Activity 1.5: Nutrient and Sediment Transport and the Global Water System.

Theme 2: Linkages and Feedbacks Activity 2.1: Linkages at Different Spatial Scales in the Global Water System Activity 2.2: Legacy of Human and Natural Interactions in the Global Water System.

Theme 3: Resilience and Adaptation Activity 3.1: Water Requirements for Nature and Humans. Activity 3.2: The Nature of Adaptive Capacity of the Global Water System. Activity 3.3: Approaches to Enhancing Adaptive Capacity (the role of institutions, governance, industrial transformation) Activity 3.4: The Provision of Ecosystem Goods and Services by the Global Water System.

GWSP Proposed Science Framework

Building the GWSP Data Base: High Technology Earth Systems Tools Satellite data Simulation models Geospatial analysis tools They show promise but…..

…..must be harmonized with the scale of emerging human dimension issues

HELP: „improve the links between hydrology and the needs of society“ – integrating stakeholder, policy-maker and scientists perspectives Links to international networks of regional studies - examples GLOWA: set of regional studies on „integrated water management, taking account of ecosystem contexts and the socio-economic framework“

Challenge Programme on Water and Food: „increase the productivity of water for food“ GEWEX continental scale experiments (CSEs) – land/atmosphere interactions, coordinated in CEOP Links to international networks of regional studies - examples EU NeWater (adaptive management under uncertainty) Global – Regional Link: GWSP: global framework / boundary conditions Regional studies: place based information

Links to national activities Japanese Global Water Cycle R&D Initiative: to provide scientific knowledge for establishing water management methods and for minimizing adverse effects of change (Mizogushi, 2003) US GWCP: to enhance understanding of water cycle processes and provide a better predictive capability to improve management of water systems Chinese GWSP Committee: newly initiated India, Pakistan, Africa

% of virtual water trade is driven by water scarcity Virtual Water Trade GWSP pilot project Hoekstra et al 2003 VWT can increase water use efficiency at global scale (450 km 3 y -1, Oki 2003) VWT as a tool in water management ? Assessment of environmental and socio- economic impacts VWT as a teleconnection in the Earth system Postel, Yang 2002

The Global Water System Project: How?

GWSP Scientific Steering Committee June 2004 Dr. Joseph Alcamo (Chair) Dr. Charles Vörösmarty (Chair) Dr. Dennis Lettenmaier Dr. Robert Naiman Dr. Claudia Pahl-Wostl Members of Executive Committee

The Global Water System Project  Consolidation of many disparate efforts to study the global aspects of water resources  Global perspective, multi-/interdisciplinary approach, coupling the social- and natural sciences  New tools to better understand the global water system  indicators, models, data bases  New understanding about changes in the global water system - its linkages and feedbacks - its resilience and adaptive capacity  Broadening the traditional perspective of water research and management: local level  watershed level  global level The Promise of a Global Water System Project