BACKGROUND TO RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 위험도 관리 및 의사 결정론

Dynamic and Static Risk -Dynamic risk Concerned with maximizing uncertainties Potential gains and losses Risking the loss of something certain for the gain of something uncertain -Static risk Only potential losses Concerned with minimizing losses

Basic rules for risk taking

Risk – Place your water line low You can try anything, as long as it is above the waterline.

Risky shift phenomenon -What happens when group make decisions ? Be more conservation? Social research shows that groups usually arrives at a riskier solution ; Shift to higher risk Why? Risk taking may he socially desirable Seeking to be seen as courageous Feels less responsibility

Risk of not risking -Risk taking is necessary If one doesn’t think big, one loses the capacity to think big If one doesn’t try the untried, soon the untried becomes frightening If the senses aren’t challenged they lose their acuity If one doesn’t take risks one loses one’s capacity to do so

People and Risk

Construction and risk

REMOVING IGNORANCE-AND RISK

PROBABILITY Important concept in dealing with risk -Objective probabilities Probability must relate to long term frequencies of occurrence. -Subjective probability Degree of belief that a person believes is correct Should be accurate, reliable, calibrated and coherent

PROBABILITY Subjective probability -Decision makers experience, education, values, personality, familiarity will be reflected in the subjective probability -How such probabilities can be identified? Just ask ? Danger of prejudging outcome. Savage’s gamble  Real world gamble  Hypothetical gamble