Mineral supply constraints necessitate a global policy response Edmund Nickless Chair International Union of Geological Sciences New Activities Strategic Implementation Committee Formerly Executive Secretary Geological Society of London 1

What is the problem? With few exceptions, what we do not farm, fish or grow comes out of the Earth Demand for raw materials has risen dramatically and underpinned improved living standards for many of the world’s poorest World population is forecast to reach about 9 billion by 2040 Metals and minerals are irregularly distributed but access to primary resources is necessary for both developed and developing countries Substitution, recycling and usage efficiency improvements will not be enough on their own to meet increased demand The move to a global low-carbon society, urbanisation and economic growth will dramatically increase demand for metals and minerals The more obvious deposits have been discovered and lower grade deposits are being work from increasing depths The rate of new discovery is not keeping pace with exhaustion of deposits 2

Geology determines the location of deposits 3

Ore grades are declining 4

Discovery rate falling, exploration cost rising 5 Source: R. Schodde 2014

More, and more-varied metals and minerals are being used 6

New energy technologies will require greater quantities of ‘critical’ metals 7 Requirements of selected metals in different power generation technologies relative to the metal demand of the current mix. Source: Klein, 2012

Primary copper production - historical & projected 8 Modified from Kerr 2014 and Northey et al 2014

International Union of Geological Sciences One of 31 “Unions” under the umbrella of the International Council for Sciences (a UN body) Resourcing Future Generations established in 2013 Comprises representatives from industry, government and academia bridging the geosciences and the social sciences As originally envisaged RFG was to include raw materials, energy and water but is currently focused on raw materials Have consulted industry, published papers, organized a symposium at China Mining, Tianjin, October 2014 and convened a workshop of specialists in Windhoek, Namibia, July

Sustainable Development Goals 10

Sustainable development goals Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all 8.4 improve progressively through 2030 global resource efficiency in consumption and production, and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation… Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns 12.2 by 2030 achieve sustainable management and efficient use of natural resource 11

Namibia workshop We identified three key themes requiring a globally coordinated approach if we are to meet the resource needs of future generations: –Theme 1: Balancing resource supply and demand in the 21st century. –Theme 2: The challenge of mineral supply: Accessing new resources from the Earth. –Theme 3: Building additional capacity to facilitate responsible development in less developed nations. 12

What are our recommendations? Develop international guidelines for planetary mineral consumption Raise awareness of the impacts of mineral consumption from source to product. Individuals and nations need to be accountable for their resource use Support industry investment and research into new mineral exploration and extraction technologies Develop global best practice for responsible mineral resource development 13

How do we make this happen? Work with others –Use International Council for Science and similar bodies to encourage dialogue across academic disciplines –Involve other groups - UNEP/IRP, ICMM, World Bank, European Union, African Union and so on –Advise legislators, policy advisers and opinion formers With a view to developing a new Social Contract for mining 14

A new Social Contract to more fairly share the wealth from mining 15 Caricature about Africa's colonisation. Dependency theory focuses on the terms of economic exchange between core (rich) and periphery (poor) countries. Image: Alamy

Summary There will be shortages meeting existing demand The current lack of investment in exploration could exasperate the problem Mitigation of climate change and development of new energy generating and transmission technologies will add to demand A new Social Contract is needed to allow exploration and mining to continue in existing areas and to open up new areas

Resourcing Future Generations To read the policy statement and full report from the RFG workshop in Namibia and other background, visit or Contact me at Thank you for your attention 17