Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 High Resolution Environmental Modelling and Evaluation Programme for Croatia Aplicant Partner Partner Partner

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 The EMEP4HR team (8+10) MET.NO: Anna Carlin Benedictow, Hilde Fagerli, Agnes Nyiri, David Simpson (coordinator ), Per Helmer Skaali, Leonor Tarrason (coordinator ), Semeena Valiyaveetil and Peter Wind MHSC: Sonja Vidič, Amela Jeričević, Lukša Kraljević, Domagoj Mihajlović, Kornelija Špoler Čanić AMGI: Branko Grisogono, Zvjezdana Bencetić Klaić, Danijel Belušić EKONERG: Davor Vešligaj, Duška Šaša

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Scope of the project( ) Air Quality Area Data, Tools and Methods for AQ Assessments and Policy Development Strengthen co-operation Scientific Inter-institutional International 1.the development of high resolution emission inventories of air pollutants in Croatia and in selected urban areas 2.the implementation and further development of a high-resolution unique version of the Eulerian chemical transport model for use in Croatia (EMEP Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe) 3.the development of a new capability for the assessment of urban air quality in main Croatian cities 4.the evaluation and testing of the new modelling capability according to international standards as a pilot project for other countries in the West Balkan area 5.the support to Croatian authorities to meet the requirements from the new EU legislation on air quality

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 GOALS to produce assessments of air quality at national and at urban levels, evaluate the national consequences of proposed international environmental control options, and analyse the effect of future emission scenarios and identify new instruments for implementation This project will allow

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March PhD theses (one completed 2009, one due in 2010), 1 Masters Thesis, and 50% postdoc To support the PhD work and the dissemination of the results, a large number of peer-reviewed publications, have been produced as part of the deliverables of the project: 14 peer-review papers 12 Contributions to books, other papers/reports 4 Theses, newsletters and posters Scentific results of EMEP4HR

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Dimension of the problem and reasoning NOx Emissions, EMEPNMVOC Emissions, EMEP

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Individual emission sourcesAir Quality Management Areas

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Emissions in 10 km x 10 kmEmissions in 50 km x 50 km

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Emissions in 10 km x 10 kmEmissions in 50 km x 50 km

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Modelling domains

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Modelling and study domain

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 STUDY OF OZONE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ACTION PLAN FOR REDUCTION OF SURFACE OZONE IN AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT AREAS (RURAL AND POPULATED) IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EMEP4HR PROJECT RESULTS

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 EMEP4HR MODEL USED TO Assess the spatial distribution of ozone and NO 2 concentrations Calculate the exceedences above the treshold value Calculate health related SOMO35 values Calculate AOT40 cummulative values for forests and crops Compare measured and modelled concentrations Assess the spatial distribution of ozone and NO 2 concentrations Calculate the exceedences above the treshold value Calculate health related SOMO35 values Calculate AOT40 cummulative values for forests and crops Compare measured and modelled concentrations Calculations were made for 4 different emission reduction scenarios for Croatia Full model run Model run excluding all Croatian emissions Model run with the scenario of 30% NOx reduction from all Croatian emission sources and activity sectors Model run with the scenario of 30% NOx reduction from emission sources in energy and industrial sectors

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Ozone monitoring sites in 2006

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 SELECTED RESULTS Mean monthly values

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March hr max value – full run (S0) run without HR emissions (S1)

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Ozone daily mean value, full run S1 run, % difference

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 AOT40 forestsAOT40 crops

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 SOMO35 health indicator Run S0 Run S1 Run S1 30% Run S2 30% Number of premature deaths Due to ozone concentrations Above 35 ppb (70 µ/m 3 )

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Number of days with the excedence of threshold value

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Ozone concentrationsNO 2 concentrations

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 NO 2 average daily concentration fields Full runS1 run – no HR emissions

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 NO 2 average daily concenrations for all 4 runs

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Implications NOx and VOC Reduction Limitation Regimes NO 2 reduction increase in O 3

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Iskrba Measured vs. Modelled Average Daily Ozone Concentrations

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Measured vs. Modelled Maximum Daily Ozone Concentrations Iskrba

Crossing Minds and Borders in the Western Balkan Countries, Sarajevo, March 2010 Measured vs. Modelled Ozone Daily Average Concentrations ZAGREB RIJEKA MAKARSKA GRADIŠTE measured modelled