Dr. James Conner Fairbanks North Star Borough November 8, 2012 Dr. James Conner Fairbanks North Star Borough November 8, 2012

Background  Fairbanks designated nonattainment for PM 2.5 in Dec  Design value is 44.7 µg/m 3  High PM 2.5 days occur at temperatures from +10° F to -40° F  Space heating is the dominant emissions source  Public is very concerned about the cost of home heating  High heating costs ignited controversy about wood heating controls 2

Home Heating Fuel Comparison Heating Source PM 2.5 Emission Factor (lb/mil. BTU) Fuel Cost ($/mil. BTU) Infrastructure Cost ($ millions)Homes Modeled PM 2.5 Benefit (µg/m 3 ) Existing Fuels Natural Gas ,1200 District Heat – Fuel Oil (#2) ,2590 Wood0.68 – ,9340 Coal Alternative Energy Solutions Natural Gas Expanded – – 66224, District Heat Expanded – ,258~0.1 Economic Incentive ,7445.5

Local Concerns Restrict Control Options  Fairbanks home heating costs using fuel oil are very high  Wood and coal economical for primary/supplemental heating  Local ballot initiative restricts Borough from implementing any solid fuel or home heating controls  Due to home heating costs, Borough Assembly has concerns about any measures that increase costs  Ordinance implementing Community Heating Incentive Program to be considered by Borough Assembly  Program would establish incentive to shift from wood to cleaner fuel on poor air quality days 4

Extensive Technical Studies Conducted Monitoring, Modeling, Surveys, Studies PM2.5 Filter sampling at 4 fixed sites, 1 mobile (RAMS) Continuous PM 2.5 sampling at 4 fixed sites, 1 mobile (RAMS) Speciation sampling at 3 fixed sites (RTI analysis), 1 mobile (RAMS) Chemical Mass balance C-14 analysis Levoglucosan Organo-sulfur/Markers CMAQ PCA Telephone survey of space heating by zip code Laboratory measurements of vehicle emissions PILS Denuder Study Space Heating Emission Factors and Source Profiles Multiple Inversion layers WRF/Chem winter hourly emissions from each point source located in the Fairbanks area Transport (wildfires) Residential Heating Device and Fuel Surveys Wood storage drying time (winter & Summer) Retrofits (catalysts, ESPs) Sniffer- DataRam surveys via instrumented vehicle

Fairbanks Modeling Results – Key Findings  Wood burning is the dominant source of PM 2.5 in Fairbanks  It is not possible to demonstrate attainment of the PM standard without limiting wood burning emissions on high concentration days  Modeling shows mobile sources and sulfur emitting sources as the next largest contributors to PM in Fairbanks

Benefits of Potential Control Programs 2014, Downtown Fairbanks Relative Reductions (µg/m 3 ) Control ProgramAugust Update Expanded Wood Stove Change Out0.8 Existing State Measures0.1 Dry Wood2.0 Reduce Wood Use on High PM Days (Community Heating Incentive Program) 4.7 Voluntary Measures0.6 Cumulative Total8.1 Reduction Goal for Attainment in 2014~10 Note: Estimate of benefits at downtown site as of August, plan must demonstrate in all areas. Emission sources in each grid cell can change relative benefits.

Attainment Outlook  Under the best of circumstances, available controls will produce design values that exceed the standard  Due to local restrictions, control options available are more limited and resulting design value is likely to be higher  Result is Borough and State need to pursue all possible sources of emission reductions  State currently assessing options to implement controls pre- empted by local ordinance 8

State & Local Programs Targeting Wood Emissions  State and local efforts to reduce wood stove/OWB emissions:  Fairbanks city ordinance bans installation of hydronic heaters  Borough ordinance restricts new hydronic heaters to EPA Phase II qualified units  Program to remove, replace, repair stoves/OWBs with EPA certified units ~$4 million changing out or removing 1,000+ stoves  Pilot program to install catalysts on OWB’s (limited success)  Politically acceptable options to provide meaningful reductions from wood burning are limited  Public demands lower cost heating alternatives  Cost of living is primary concern, not air quality or public health  Benefits from change-outs substantially greater if tighter standards  Alaska/Fairbanks needs help reducing wood burning emissions! 9

Fairbanks Recommendations Tighter Wood Burning Emission Standards  EPA should implement stringent emission standards for wood burning devices  Consider standards that force the development of new technology in coordination with States and Industry  Given range of certified stove emission rates, significant additional reductions are available if EPA adopts a BACM type approach when setting standards  Alternatively, a phase-in schedule for new standards using a transition from existing to Washington State levels to BACM levels could be established 10