Monsoon 2015 Foreshadow

102% OF LPA (+/-4%) NORMAL JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (LPA = 887mm)

PROBABALITY OF MONSOON

EXPECTED NORMAL VS FORECAST LPA Forecast

JUNE RAINFALL PROBABALITY 107% of LPA Normal LPA is 164 mm 107% of LPA Normal LPA is 164 mm

JULY RAINFALL PROBABALITY 104% of LPA Normal LPA is 289 mm 104% of LPA Normal LPA is 289 mm

AUGUST RAINFALL PROBABALITY 99% of LPA Normal LPA is 261 mm 99% of LPA Normal LPA is 261 mm

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL PROBABALITY 96% of LPA Normal LPA is 173 mm 96% of LPA Normal LPA is 173 mm

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER Kerala, Konkan and Goa, Punjab, Haryana, west UP will receive good amounts of rainfall. Parts of Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema and south Karnataka are at some risk Rainfall Departure:+2% Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE Country as a whole will receive good amounts of rainfall indicating timely onset Rainfall Departure:+7% Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JULY MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JULY Normal rainfall expected Rainfall Departure:+4% Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY AUGUST MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY AUGUST Slightly less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over southern peninsular India Rainfall Departure:-1% Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY SEPTEMBER MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY SEPTEMBER Little less than normal rainfall is expected particularly over Central and southern India Rainfall Departure:-4% Poor Signal

A cyclonic vortex is expected to move along the west coast in the last week of April to first week of May causing rainfall all along the west coast and GujaratA cyclonic vortex is expected to move along the west coast in the last week of April to first week of May causing rainfall all along the west coast and Gujarat In second week of May, another spell of rainfall over parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra is expectedIn second week of May, another spell of rainfall over parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra is expected Pre-Monsoon activity is expected to be frequent and strong through out May in North and North-East IndiaPre-Monsoon activity is expected to be frequent and strong through out May in North and North-East India Monsoon onset is likely to be strong and earlyMonsoon onset is likely to be strong and early EXPECTED PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES

PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES Please enter presentation mode(full screen) for animation to play

PAST FORECAST PERFORMANCE No Signal

Onset and progress of Monsoon 2015 In its 1st forecast on 22nd April 2015, Skymet predicted early onset of monsoon this year. The latest update suggests its timely arrival over Andaman Sea between 18 to 20 May, The monsoon is likely to reach Kerala between 27th to 29th May, simultaneously covering some parts of Northeast India. Most parts of South India and entire northeastern parts shall be covered between 6th and 9th June. The monsoon surge is expected to slow down thereafter and expected to reach Mumbai in the western coast and Kolkata on eastern side between 11th and 14 of June. Most of the central and eastern parts of the country shall get covered in the third week i.e. between 22nd and 24th June. Between 2nd and 5th of July the monsoon will cover most parts of country outside west Rajasthan. Further, entire country shall get covered on or before 15th of July. The likely onset dates for some important cities are as follows.

CityExpected Onset date (±2) Port Blair19-May Thiruvananthapuram29-May Chennai05-June Bengaluru06-June Panjim08-June Hyderabad10-June Pune10-June Bhubaneswar11-June Mumbai11-June Kolkata11-June Nagpur15-June Raipur15-June Ranchi17-June Patna17-June Bhopal20-June Ahmedabad23-June Lucknow24-June Jaipur30-June Delhi30-June Chandigarh01-July Amritsar02-July Jodhpur05-July

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