Analysing the Case for Change Joe Lennard | Digital Railway Funding Lead Suppliers’ Summer Conference 15/07/2015

Initial findings about the case to accelerate the digital modernisation of the railway are positive. Initial analysis has explored whether there is a potential case to accelerate the digital modernisation of the railway. This has focussed on an existing section of the railway - the South West Main Line – which has characteristics that make it particularly representative of the national network. Initial findings are complete, which indicate that more rapid digital transformation has the potential to bring forward important benefits. Findings based on comparing undiscounted expenditure estimates indicate that:  Installing Digital Train Control in combination with a package conventional enhancements could enable up to 40 per cent more capacity through headway reduction.  The capital cost of meeting demand for trains per hour could be 30 per cent lower in undiscounted terms than conventional enhancements with the current plan for Digital Train Control.  Digital Train Control does not fully mitigate the need for conventional enhancements e.g. to flat junctions and station capacity.

Geographic Extent of Modelling Why this route? Representative of a number of key lines of route in the UK Link to a major port and major London terminus Representative of the different types of “pinch-points” Woking to Waterloo forecast in 2043 peak 154% overcrowded The case has been made to take analysis to the next level – by looking at several additional routes to understand the true national picture.

Work to assess the case for digital transformation nationwide is now underway.

Areas to be included in the next wave of analysis Routes to be included in modellingCharacteristics and Constraints Essex Thameside Self contained inner and outer suburban with freight Plain line headway and platform re-occupation, flat junction conflict with freight at Forest Gate Junction London King’s Cross to Newcastle & Moorgate branch Mixed markets – intercity, suburban and freight Speed mix of services (passenger stopping pattern + freight + rolling stock), interaction with HS2, flat junctions, platform capacity (through and terminal), power supply, long junction margins, gradients, layout (mix of 2, 4 and 6 track) Ely to Leicester via Peterborough Level Crossings and mixed markets – freight, inter-regional, rural Level crossings, speed mix of services, flat junctions London Victoria and London Bridge to Brighton South London Suburban Flat junctions, speed mix of services, combination of dwell and platform re-occupation, power supply, and mixed rolling stock Cardiff Valley Lines core (Queen Street to Central) Regional commuter market Core network with headway constraints with commuter services radiating from a shared core section Grantham to Skegness Rural Community rail line with single lines, level crossings and seasonal demand fluctuation Central Belt to Aberdeen Long distance, regional and local services Single lines, flat junctions, passing loops, freight, gradients, service mix and seasonal variations in demand Others to be confirmed