California Desert Air Quality Working Group Conference, November 2, 2011

 Generally large lot SF detached residential development – quiet, solitude…  Very auto-oriented development pattern, trip lengths longer than SoCal average  Large share of labor force commutes to distant jobs  Some fixed-route transit service, “premium” transit (rail or BRT) & peds not supported by land use Precisely the target of SB 375?

Rapid High Desert grew rapidly for several decades in response to:  Boomers were of prime family-raising, home buying age (between 20 & 60)  Desert offered much more affordable large lot SFDUs for families  Relatively inexpensive gas prices kept cost of commuting tolerable  Moderate congestion kept commute times bearable

Long Distance Commuting?

Chevron Ads, circa 2005

Increase: 12% 90%

 More Southern Californians entering retirement years (65+, 1.8 Million)…  Than entering main family-raising, family home-buying ages (21 – 64, 1.4 Million) Implications???

Male household headship rates decline Female household headship rates increase

 Household Type  HH with Children 48% 32% 26%  HH without Children 52% 68% 74%  Single/Other HH 13% 31% 34%  Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah

CountySF%MF% San Bernardino40%60% Los Angeles23%77% Orange27%73% Riverside41%59% Imperial47%53% Ventura31%69% SCAG Total32%68% Projected Housing

Aging: As of 2010, who are the Baby Boomers? As of 2010, who are the Baby Boomers?

Source: 2000 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Source: California State Controller’s Office, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 1997 Current Population Survey

$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18, and Above Other RetirementAll Other Public Transfers Public Education Social Security Health Care Government Related Services Per Capita

 Less discretionary income (reduced gov’t support for seniors or higher taxes on workers to support them) makes housing and transport affordability critical  Congestion will further impact long commutes…  As will continuing increases in fuel costs  Little demand for more large lot SFDU’s  Increasing demand for diverse housing options in proximity to work, shop, play

 Development of a much more robust local economic base  A more diverse suite of residential opportunities to address changing demography  Residential opportunities in closer proximity to jobs, retail, education, and recreation

 A mandate to do what demographics and market forces would ultimately cause to occur anyway…  But would this conversation be occurring now without it?