Experimental Probability of Simple Events

Focus

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY (in your Journal)  The ___________________ ___________________ of an event is found by comparing the number of times the event occurs to the total number of trials. When there is only one outcome of an event, it is called a ___________ ___________.

Martin has a bag of marbles. He removed one marble, recorded the color and then placed it back in the bag. He repeated this process several times and recorded his results in the table. Find the probability of drawing each color. (Red, Blue, Green, and Yellow) Write the experimental probability of each color. (in your journal) Red- Blue- Green- Yellow-

SIMULATION (in your Journal)  A __________________________ is a model of an experiment that would be difficult to actually perform. You can use a simulation to find an experimental probability and make a prediction. For Example: (on your desk, together as a class)  A baseball team has a batting average of so far this season. This means that the team’s players get hits in 25 % of their chances at bat. Use a simulation to predict the number of hits the team’s players will have in their next 25 chances at bat. Use a full deck of cards and draw 25 times to record how many times you draw a HEART. This will help you make a prediction on their next 34 times at bat. -Why can you use a deck of cards? Car d #1 Car d #2 Car d #3 Car d #4 Car d #5 Car d #6 Car d #7 Car d #8 Car d #9 Car d #1 0 Car d #1 1 Car d #1 2 Car d #1 3 Car d #1 4 Car d #1 5 Car d #1 6 Car d #1 7 Car d #1 8/ Car d #1 9 Car d #2 0 Car d #2 1 Car d #2 2 Car d #2 3 Car d #2 4 Car d #2 5

Think – Pair – Share (in your Journal)  Think – Take 2 minutes to think quietly about the following question.  Pair – Take 1 minute to share with your partner your thoughts about the following problem.  Share – Share with the class your thoughts about the following problem.  Problem: A toy machine has equal numbers of red, white, and blue rubber balls. Ross wonders which color ball will come out of the machine next. Describe how you can use a standard number cube to model this situation. Then use a simulation to predict the color of the next ball. Roll #1 Roll #2 Roll #3 Roll #4 Roll #5 Roll #6 Roll #7 Roll #8 Roll #9 Roll #10

On your desk, using your expo marker, 10 index cards, and your partner work the following problem.  Rachel’s free-throw average for basketball is 60 %. Describe how you can use 10 index cards to model this situation. Then use a simulation to predict how many times in the next 20 tries Rachel will make a free throw.

On your own in your Journal….  Make sure you are answering BOTH of the questions.  What is the Probability Ryan is chosen today?  What is the probability that Ryan is NOT chosen today?

Celebrity Hunger Games – Probability Edition Directions: You will be using Experimental Probability to see how your tributes are eliminated over a 10 day period. You will be given a pair of dice that will be used to determine if the tribute moves on to the next day or if they are eliminated. Day 1: Roll two die. If your roll totals an 8,9,10,11, or 12 the tribute is eliminated. After Day 1: Roll two dice. If your roll totals a 3, 11, or 12 the tribute is eliminated. At the end of each day, calculate the experimental probability that a tribute would win (tribute/total number of tributes left).

Closure Writing Prompt: Choose an index card to write a short paragraph about the following prompt. How do simulations help us determine the probability that an event will occur or not occur?