Climate Smart Agriculture: Trends, Drivers, Global Context and the EU Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop Vienna, Austria, May 2016

The Trends

What will it take - Feeding 9 Billion People in 2050 Food Consumption by Region 2005/07 vs 2050 Changing Diets CEA 2013 based on FAO 2012, CCAFS 2015 Changing Consumption MENA SAR SSALCR EAP Developed Percentage Increase 05/07 – %81%79%43% 30% 11%

Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems – Here Today Recent price spikes for food commodities have been linked to extreme weather events World Bank 2008, Reuters Eikon PRICE Volatility Impacts SHARE prices A price hike in corn (black) drives down the share price of Tyson Foods (red) Tyson’s Corn PRODUCTION Volatility Impacts FOOD Prices

Decreasing Yields Maize and wheat yields show climate impacts Increasing Cost Structure Price for beef increasing steadily due to pressure from feed and pastureland markets Beef from : +100% CCAFS 2014; Reuters Eikon Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems – Worsening Tomorrow

TODAY 2030 Areas suitable for Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, today (top) and in 2030 (bottom) Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems – Uncertain Future Yield Collapse? CIAT, World Bank Disappearing Chocolate?

The Drivers

TODAY - The Food System is PART of the Climate Change Problem LIVESTOCK 62% AGRICULTURE ~13% OF TOTAL LAND USE CHANGE ~11% OF TOTAL TOTAL EMISSIONS FERTILIZATION 16% RICE - 10% OTHER - 12% FOREST LAND 63% CROPLAND 25% BURNING BIOMASS 11% IPCC 2014

Who’s Emitting in Food Systems? California Environmental Associates 2013, unpublished. Based on data from FAOSTAT Agricultural Emissions in Mt CO 2 e/y

Global emissions by commodity, 2008 What’s Emitting in Food Systems?

EU Total Emissions 2013: 4,477 million tonnes CO2eq Source: Eurostat EU AG Emissions 2012: 407 million metric tonnes CO2eq Source: FAOSTAT The European Context

TOMORROW – The Food System could be THE Climate Change Problem 5.4 Gt LULUCF* 6.4 Gt Agriculture 9.5 Gt Agriculture 4 Gt Agriculture 5.4 Gt LULUCF* By 2050, Agriculture and Land Use Change could represent 70% of Global Emissions - if global emissions are reduced in accordance with a 2C goal, while Agriculture were to remain in business as usual. By 2050, Agriculture will have to reduce its emission intensity by 60%, if it is to maintain its footprint in parallel with overall emissions reductions. This assumes emissions from Land Use Change will have fallen to zero. Projections of Global, Agriculture and Land Use Change Related Emissions towards 2050 (Gt CO 2 e) Gt TODAY ‘2C’ Ensuring Emission Level *Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry 11% 14% Global Emissions: 49.1 Gt Global Emissions: Gt Global Emissions: Gt ~25% of Total 25% 45% ~70% of Total 60% GAP Agriculture Business As Usual Ag. Reduces Proportional to Other Sectors WRI 2013

The Backstory

Growth in AG commodity demand toward 2050… Kharas, 2011

Global meat consumption driving the demand for feed and emissions National Geographic Magazine – “Food”

Not only driving emissions - Not all water is consumed equally

Efficient production definitely does not correspond with efficient consumption WRI 2015 SHARE OF AVAILABLE FOOD THAT IS LOST OR WASTED 45%25% 22%19%15% 17% 23%

So, where are the solutions?

Poverty, Hunger, Climate and Climate Smart Agriculture WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE? To build food systems that meet increasing demand while remaining profitable and sustainable in the face of Climate Change. WHAT WILL IT TAKE?CAN IT BE DONE? SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE + CSA = RESILIENCE 1.Increasing productivity sustainably 2.Enhancing the resilience of producers and supply chains 3.Reducing Emissions Yes, but we need to connect Climate Change with the bottom line of farmers and food businesses - EMISSIONS

What and Where are the Opportunities to Deliver?

How does this relate to the EU and the CAP?

Reformed in 2013, the new CAP ( ) includes an estimated €104 billion (or 25% of the total) in funding for AG and RD that is “related to climate.” – EC COP21 Factsheet CAP background » AG is the only sector funded entirely by the EU budget (as opposed to public expenditure in member countries) » Accounts for 40% of EU budget (AG + Rural Development) » CAP priorities are viable food production, sustainable management of natural resources, and balanced rural development throughout the EU » Strong mitigation focus How does the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) support CSA?

CAP introduced several instruments to incorporate sustainability into income support for farmers and rural development programs. Pillar 1 » Income support for farmers now includes Green Direct Payments (30% of direct payments) for implementing certain practices; subject to cross compliance: » Cross-compliance simplified and more targeted environmental cross-compliance to be met in order to receive full CAP funding Pillar 2 » Rural development programs must now reserve 30% of the budget for voluntary measures that benefit the climate and/or environment How is this €104 billion being deployed?

Close-up on Green Direct Payments Payments for three obligatory “greening” practices, with no obligation to produce Obligatory practices 1. maintaining permanent grassland 2. dedicating 5% of arable land to ecological focus areas 3. diversifying crops * Farmers can instead undertake practices which are considered equivalent New direct payments envelope

CSA in action in the EU - The case of Ireland

Launched in 2012, Origin Green is a national labeling program that aims to put every farm and food manufacturing business in Ireland on the road to sustainable production by » Program for farmers and food businesses throughout the entire AG value chain to set, achieve, and report on sustainability targets » National level (Bord Bia) » Voluntary » Sustainability Charter provides framework for setting targets » 85% of all exports! What is Origin Green?

Why is it unique? Target areas 1. Raw Material Sourcing 2. Manufacturing Processes 3. Social Sustainability Only national labeling program with an independent verification process (800 farm audits/week!)

How does CSA fit in? The Sustainability Charter is increasingly incorporating dimensions of CSA, motivating and enabling farmers and businesses to achieve measurable targets for these dimensions throughout the supply chain.