Ecoclimatic Species Distribution Models of Tamarisk Beetles (Diorhabda elongata Species Group) and Invasive Tamarisks (Tamarix spp.) with a Novel Stacked Environmental Envelope Model (SEEM) James Tracy 1, Mauro DiLuzio 2, Jack DeLoach 1 Temple, Texas Tamarisk & Russian Olive Research Conference Tamarisk Coalition Reno, Nevada 18 February USDA/ARS Grassland, Soil & Water Research Lab 808 East Blackland Rd Temple, TX Texas Agri-Life Research Blackland Research Center 808 East Blackland Rd Temple, TX 76502

Biological components = rectangles; physical and ecological components and processes = rounded rectangles (modified from Gregory et al and Tracy and DeLoach 1999). Relationships of Interactions to Effects of Tamarisk Invasion Plant Successional Processes Geomorphic & Hydrologic Processes Riparian Vegetation Retention Aquatic Nutritional Resources Aquatic Biota Terrestrial Riparian Herbivores Terrestrial Riparian Predators Involve Direct Effects Involve Major Indirect Effects Involve Minor or No Effects Tamarisk Beetle Introduction Tamarisk Invasion Riparian Zone Interactions Channel Structure Aquatic & Terrestrial Physical Habitats Valley Floor Landforms with Tamarisk Invasion Relationships of Interactions to Effects of Tamarisk Biocontrol Involve Direct Effects Involve Indirect Effects with Tamarisk Biocontrol Terrestrial Riparian Herbivores

>100 yr floods 0-2 yr of no floods tamarisk beetle herbivory 0-2 yr of no floods colonization by clonal species >50 yr floods 2-10 yr floods > 10 yr floods tamarisk beetle herbivory 2-10 yr floods tamarisk invasion Tamarisk/Cottonwood- Willow Seedlings 0-50 yr floods Tamarisk Seedling Strand Tamarisk ScrublandTamarisk Low Woodland 0-50 yr floods Tamarisk/Cottonwood- Willow/ Seepwillow Scrubland Cottonwood-Willow Upper Forest Tamarisk/Mesquite/Wolfberry/Saltbush/ Bermuda Grass Woodland no 0-50 yr floods Bermuda Grass Riverine Meadow Mesquite/Quailbush/ Bermuda Grass Shrubland >25 yr floods Bulrush Riverine Marshland Tamarisk/Quailbush/ Screwbean/Mesquite Baccharis/Woflberry/ Bermuda Grass Shrublands Screwbean/Mesquite/ Quailbush/Baccharis/ Wolfberry/Bermuda Grass Shrublands Seepwillow Scrubland Coyote Willow Scrubland Common/Giant Reed Riverine Meadow Increasing Depth to Water Table (m) Quailbush Scrubland Mesquite/Saltbush/ Bush Muhly Shrubland Cattail Riverine Marshland (modified and generalized from Horton and Campbell 1974, Richter 1992, Bell 1994, and Tracy and DeLoach 1999) Influence of Tamarisk Biological Control in a Plant Successional Model of a Chihuahuan Rio Grande Riverine System Herbaceous Strand Cottonwood-Willow Low Woodland Seepwillow/Cottonwood- Willow Seedling Strand Seepwillow/Cottonwood- Willow Scrubland Mesquite/Wolfberry/ Saltbush/Bermuda Grass Woodland Tamarisk Upper Woodland Moist, Flood Scoured, Bare Sandbar/Sediment Banks tamarisk beetle herbivory tamarisk herbivory >100 yr floods 0-2 yr of no floods >50 yr floods 2-10 yr floods 0-50 yr floods >25 yr floods > 10 yr floods Moist, Flood Scoured, Bare Sandbar/Sediment Banks Plant Successional Model of a Chihuahuan Rio Grande Riverine System Influence of Tamarisk Invasion in a Plant Successional Model of a Chihuahuan Rio Grande Riverine System

Example: Defining Range of Chihuahuan Desert (per Olson & Dinerstein 2002) using SEEM Distribution Points of Species or Area to Model (selected 100 random points from Chihuahuan Desert)

59 Global GIS Environmental Layers Gridded at 10 min. Resolution (13 km) 1 Mean Annual Temperature Mean Minimum Temp. of Coldest Month Quarterly Mean Monthly Minimum Temp. (4) Mean Maximum Temp. of Warmest Month Quarterly Mean Monthly Maximum Temp. (4) Mean Annual Days of Ground Frost Quarterly Days of Ground Frost (4) Mean Annual Rainfall (50%) Quarterly Total Rainfall (50%) (4) Mean Annual Rainfall (75%) Mean Annual Days of Rainfall Mean Annual Event Rainfall per Day Mean Annual Relative Humidity (Rh) Quarterly Mean Monthly Rh (4) Mean Annual Sunlight Hours Total Annual Penman-Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration (mm) (PET) Mean Annual PET Quarterly Total PET (4) Thornwaite Summer Concentration Thermal Effeciency (Summer PET/Annual PET) Degree-Day Annual Heat Sum Above 0 Degree-Day Annual Cold Sum Below 0 Maximum Potential Soil Moisture Deficit Willmott Feddema Moisture Index Rivas-Martinez Ombrothermic Index Rivas-Marinez Isothermicity Indicex Rivas-Martinez Compensated Isothermicity Index Rivas-Martiniez Continentality Index Elevation Soil Easily Available Water Balance Model (SEAWAB) Total Annual Evapotranspiration (AET) SEAWAB Quarterly Mean Monthly AET (4) SEAWAB Total Annual Evapotranspiration Ratio (AET/PET) SEAWAB Quarterly Mean Monthly AET/PET (4) SEAWAB Annual Deficit (AET – PET) SEAWAB Mean Monthly Plant Available Water SEAWAB Mean Monthly Surplus Soil Moisture Continentality Index Driscoll-Yee Fong Revised Daylength Index (hours daylight at summer solstice) 1 In yellow: unpublished derivations of revised climatic indices

Mean Monthly Minimum Temperature (° C) of Winter Quarter 10’ Grid, (Hemispherically Corrected) (New et al. 2002)

Mean Annual Days of Ground Frost 10’ Grid, (New et al. 2002)

Mean Monthly Annual Relative Humidity 10’ Grid, (New et al. 2002)

Actual Evapotranspiration (Et)/Potential Et (Total Annual; SEAWAB Index) 10’ Grid, (New et al. 2002, IWMI 2002, FAO 2002, Unpublished Data)

Continentality Index Driscoll-Yee Fong Revised 10’ Grid, (Driscoll & Yee Fong 1992, New et al. 2002, IWMI 2002, FAO 2002, Unpublished Data)

Soil Moisture Surplus Index 10’ Grid, (New et al. 2002, IWMI 2002, FAO 2002, Unpublished Data)

Daylength Index (daylight hrs at summer solstice) 10’ Grid (Unpublished Data)

Determine Environmental Ranges for Species/Area Stacked Environmental Envelope Model (SEEM) GIS Calculation Model Inputs Model Outputs Distribution Points of Species or Area to Model Environmental Layers Environmental Envelope Grids (1 = within envelope; 0 = outside envelope) Stacked Grid = Sum of Environmental Envelope Grids Addition

Environmental Envelope Grid for Chihuahuan Desert of Total Annual Potential Et Layer

Environmental Envelope Grid for Chihuahuan Desert of Mean Monthly Minimum Temperature of Summer Quarter Layer

Environmental Envelope Grid for Chihuahuan Desert of Mean Monthly Relative Humidity of Spring Quarter Layer

Stacked Environmental Envelope Grids for Chihuahuan Desert: SEEM Prediction Range of 0 (red) to 59 (green) grids stacked; 0-100% overlap of stacked layers

SEEM Prediction of Chihuahuan Desert 0-100% Overlap of Stacked Layers

SEEM Prediction of Chihuahuan Desert % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

SEEM Prediction of Chihuahuan Desert % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

Example: Defining Range of Western Short Grasslands (per Olson & Dinerstein 2002) using SEEM Distribution Points of Species or Area to Model (selected 100 random points from Western Short Grasslands)

SEEM Prediction of Western Short Grasslands 0-100% Overlap of Stacked Layers

SEEM Prediction of Western Short Grasslands % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

Chihuahuan Desert SEEM Prediction of Western Short Grasslands % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

SEEM Prediction forTamarix parviflora % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

SEEM Prediction forTamarix parviflora

SEEM Prediction forTamarix ramosissima % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

SEEM Prediction forTamarix ramosissima

SEEM Prediction forTamarix aphylla % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

SEEM Prediction forTamarix aphylla

SEEM Prediction forTamarix canariensis

SEEM Prediction for Empidonax traillii extimus

Diorhabda carinata Uzbekistan Diorhabda elongata Crete/Posidi Diorhabda carinulata China Kazakhstan Diorhabda sublineata Tunisia Diorhabda meridionalis Iran Mediterranean Subtropical Larger Northern Southern Distribution Records of Five Tamarisk Beetle Species Diorhabda elongata Species Group (Tracy & Robbins, accepted)

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda carinulata Source: China/Kazakhstan % Overlap of Stacked Layers (rest is red)

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda elongata Source: Greece

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda carinata Source: Uzbekistan

SEEM Prediction for Diorhabda sublineata Source: Tunisia

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda meridionalis Potential Source: Iran/Pakistan

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda carinata Source: Uzbekistan

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda carinata Source: Uzbekistan

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda elongata Source: Greece

SEEM Prediction for Diorhabda carinulata Source: China/Kazakhstan

SEEM Prediction forDiorhabda sublineata Source: Tunisia

SEEM Prediction for Diorhabda meridionalis Potential Source: Iran/Pakistan

SEEM Predictions for Diorhabda elongata Species Group Mediterranean Diorhabda elongata Crete/Posidi Greece Southern Diorhabda meridionalis Iran/Pakistan Larger Diorhabda carinata Uzbekistan Subtropical Diorhabda sublineata Tunisia Northern Diorhabda carinulata China/Kazakhstan