ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 1 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Highlights on the on-going R&D on data assimilation and physical configurations of the WRF-RTFDDA Yubao Liu Great thanks go to the following colleagues for their assistance to this presentation: Francois Vendenberghe, Wei Yu, Al Bourgeois, Gregory Roux, Ming Ge, Wanli Wu, Andrea Hahmann, Mei Xu, Jason Knievel, Laurie Carson, Josh Hacker, Jenny Sun and Tom Warner.

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 2 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Topics 1.3DVAR + grid-nudging for coarse meshes 2.MODIS polar winds for CRTC 3.Incorporate MODIS land use 4.Incorporate COSMIC observations 5.Obs-nudging refinements 6.Using E-RTFDDA to choose WRF physics 7.Assimilate radar data through VDRAS 8.Other  Test nesting strategy and raise the model top  Incorporate Community WRF advances  Develop 4D EnKF and “obs-nudging” hybrid

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 3 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Topic 1: Testing and incorporating WRF-3DVAR into WRF-RTFDDA using “grid-nudging” approach  WRF-3DVAR provides a viable way to incorporate non- conventional observation such as satellite radiance, GPS occultation and radar radial winds.  Large scale weather systems on domain 1 or 2 may drift away for long RTFDDA restart-cycling in regions where conventional observation are sparse.  Our approach is to incorporate WRF-3DVAR into RTFDDA with a hybrid scheme: to add 3DVAR analyses on D1 and D2 through grid-nudging.

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 4 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program  Started with IHOP-2002 convection case, for the sake of observation availability and interesting weather scenario.  3 model domains with 3DVAR and grid-nudging on D1 and D2 only  5 experiments were conducted  Started with IHOP-2002 convection case, for the sake of observation availability and interesting weather scenario.  3 model domains with 3DVAR and grid-nudging on D1 and D2 only  5 experiments were conducted RTFDDA, 3DVAR and “grid-nudging” hybrid 06Z 09Z 12Z C3DVAR ONUD HYBRID GNUD Experiment Name CF12Z 3Dvar 3Dvar 3Dvar Forecast Grid Nudging GFS Forecast Obs Nudging Forecast Grid Nudging 3DVar Forecast

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 5 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program 6 Hour Forecast, 1h rain ending at 1800UTC 13 June 2002 STAG IV obs

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 6 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program  ATC WRF-2.2 RTFDDA domains and physics  Experiments Period: 00 UTC Z 27 March 2007  3DVAR and grid-nudging were only performed on D1 and D2  Four exps  ATC WRF-2.2 RTFDDA domains and physics  Experiments Period: 00 UTC Z 27 March 2007  3DVAR and grid-nudging were only performed on D1 and D2  Four exps Test the hybrid RTFDDA with an ATC case  Control : “obs-nudging” only.  3d : “grid-nudging” with 3dvar analysis only.  gfs : “grid-nudging” with GFS analysis only.  hy : combination of “obs-nudging” and “grid-nudging” with 3dvar analysis  Control : “obs-nudging” only.  3d : “grid-nudging” with 3dvar analysis only.  gfs : “grid-nudging” with GFS analysis only.  hy : combination of “obs-nudging” and “grid-nudging” with 3dvar analysis

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 7 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Comparison of RMSE of analysis and 18h fcsts of wind speed CTRL Hybrid GFS 3DVar D1, AnalysisD2, Analysis D1, 18h fcstsD2, 18h fcsts

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 8 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Findings: 3DVAR, “grid-nudging” and “observation-nudging” methods better than cold-starts. “Observation-nudging” appears to perform the best with its advantages of assimilating observations on both the coarse and fine mesh grids and having a close interaction (dynamical adjustment) between observations and model equations. Hybrid scheme is better than “obs-nudging” only. This is not discouraging as we expect the extra benefit of 3DVAR from assimilating radar and satellite data, which are not included here.

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 9 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Topic 2: MODIS polar winds for CRTC MODIS winds overlaid on IR (11µm) image  MODIS Aqua and Terra polar-orbiting satellites frequently pass over polar regions.  By tracking cloud and water vapor features in IR, VIS and WV bands, Winds can be derived (UW/SSEC).  The MODIS winds can be used to improve the 4DWX CTRC modeling system due to severe sparse data availability of conventional weather observations in the region.  MODIS Aqua and Terra polar-orbiting satellites frequently pass over polar regions.  By tracking cloud and water vapor features in IR, VIS and WV bands, Winds can be derived (UW/SSEC).  The MODIS winds can be used to improve the 4DWX CTRC modeling system due to severe sparse data availability of conventional weather observations in the region.

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 10 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program MODIS winds data availble for CRTC D1 Diurnal changes of hourly MODIS winds for August 13, 2007 MODIS winds (blue) and all observations (grey) ingested between August 1-12, 2007

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 11 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Impact study with parallel RTFDDA experiments for CRTC  Using MM5-RTFDDA, GMOD-CTRC configuration  Parallel runs with GMOD-CTRC, but started 2 hour late to cope with the data latency which can be 3+ hours  Started two months ago, but stats shown here is for August 1 – 17, 2007

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 12 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program CRTC RTFDDA tests with MODIS winds Comparison of wind speed errors for final analysis, 12h forecast and 24 h forecast with and W/O MODIS Analysis 12h fcsts 24h fcsts Analysis 12h fcsts 24h fcsts With MODIS Against all soundings at 00Z on D1; Period: Aug. 1 – 17, 2007

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 13 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program CRTC RTFDDA tests with MODIS winds Comparison of wind speed errors for final analysis,12h forecast and 24 h forecast with and W/O MODIS Against all soundings at 12Z on D1; Period: Aug. 1 – 17, 2007 Summary  Promising and encouraging  More work: data thinning and balancing; try WRF-3DVAR

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 14 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Radio-Occultation Radio Occultation: When radio signals from GPS satellites bend and slow down when passing through the atmosphere. These properties, i.e. refractivity N, are related to pressure P, temperature T and humidity Pw: Topic 3: Ingesting COSMIC soundings (T and Qv) The 6 satellites of the COSMIC's low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites take advantage of this effect by intercepting the GPS radio signals just above Earth's horizon and precisely measuring the bend and signal delay along the signal path. Therefore, T & Qv soundings can be derived.

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 15 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program COSMIC coverage WSMR D1

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 16 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program COSMIC soundings on PMRF Dom1  Fill regions without in-situ soundings e.g. PMRF domains, the south regions of WSMR D1, the Middle East regions  10 - ~20 soundings on PMRF domain 1. Both number and locations vary daily.  Need access its accuracy  COSMIC raw data can be used with EnKF and WRF-VAR for a better impact

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 17 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Topic 4: Incorporate MODIS land use dataset  Properly defining natural and man-made land uses are very important for ATEC 4DWX modeling.

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 18 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Incorporate MODIS land use data set  USGS land use data was 20+ year old  Land use properties and distribution have evolved significantly since then, in particular, due to urbanization (expansion), irrigating lands changes and deforesting.  MODIS gives a new, updated set of land use data  with its super-resolution (250m) sensors orbiting on Terra and Aqua.  Both data sets are at 30” resolution  USGS 24 categories, + ATEC 3 extra  MODIS 19 categories, + ATEC 3 extra  Research on the MODIS data set are on-going  QC and consistence  Incorporating into WRF LSM models

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 19 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Comparison of ATC MODIS and USGS LU USGSMODIS D3 D4 DC BL PH DC BL PH AA A A Crop land Broad leaf forest Mixed forest

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 20 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program MODIS land use: An “incremental approach”  “Repair”/refine USGS for range domains, but keep the current USGS land use categories and property table.  e.g. use MODIS urban to mask the USGS urban regions  Adjust MODIS land use in the range domains 3 and 4, based on other data resources  Adjust MODIS land use property tables  Full transit to the MODIS data set for 4DWX modeling Notes: 1. MODIS land use has been incorporated to HPAC 2. MODIS provides real-time measurements on some land surface properties (greenness factor, albedo …) that can be used to drive HRLDAS. Transitioning to MODIS land use is necessary.

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 21 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Topic 5: Obs-nudging refinements  Allow different nudging time windows (i.e. obs action periods) for different nested domains (Done)  Allow use different observation data on different nested domains (done)  Use “time of day” diurnal climatology of spatial correlation structures to build spatial data assimilation weighting function for each SAMS station  Test spatial correlation based on E-RTFDDA forecasts for data assimilation weighting

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 22 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Topic 6: Using E-RTFDDA to help determining optimal WRF physics suite for each range  Currently, WRF physics schemes were chosen subjectively  Started with the same physics suite for all ranges  Adjusted subjectively with limited knowledge with single model run  Best scheme-combination should be selected for each range  E-RTFDDA can be used to optimize WRF-RTFDDA “physics suite” effectively.  Varying physics schemes and I.C. & B.Cs of WRF model is a subset of E-RTFDDA members  Start parallel executions of sensitivity experiments of interest  Re-use the WRF subset of E-RTFDDA historical run archives  Re-use E-RTFDDA post-processing tools  E-RTFDDA can be run on HPC or SMAC machines

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 23 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program WRF Physics schemes Cumulus Kain-Fritsch; Betts-Miller-Janic; Grell-Devenyi Microphysics Kessler; Lin et al.; WSM5; WSM6; Thompson et al.; Ferrier Land surface Thermal/slab; Noah; RUC Long-wave radiation RRTM ; CAM ; GFDL Short-wave radiation Dudhia ; Goddard ; CAM ; GFDL PBL YKU; Meller-Yamada-Janic; RUC; GFS; MRF

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 24 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Obs 3hrain NSSL/NMQ GFS membersNAM members WSMR WRF E-RTFDDA Sensitivity Examples Summer convection (Aug. 1, 2007) 3h rain accumulation ending at 21Z for WRF members driven by GFS versus by NAM

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 25 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program CRTC WRF E-RTFDDA Sensitivity Examples WCTRL WCT2W WPMYJWRGOD WAF01 WAF02WAF04WAF08 18 h forecasts of surface winds and temperature, D3 Valid at 12Z Jan. 5, 2007

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 26 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program Topic 7: Others. No way! Finally we come to the grand finale of the endless end of this modeling talk. Want more …

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 27 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program

ATEC IPR August 2007 NCAR, Boulder, CO 28 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program MODIS Polar Winds  Winds are derived from successive MODIS image triplets (~1.5 hours apart) in WV and IR window channels above +/- 60 latitude.  ~12 images triplets at per day at each pole from 2 satellites Aqua and Terra.  ~25,000 quality-controlled vectors per day at each pole. ➢ Currently latency (1-3hr) is too long for FDDA ➢ Plans at UW is to reduce latency down to 2hrs