1 UK Progress reducing emissions and preparing for climate change PPA Sustainability Summit, 8 October 2015 Adrian Gault, Chief Economist Committee on Climate Change

2 The Climate Change Act sets a framework to drive change Requirement that Government brings forward policies Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest changes Carbon budgets 2050 Emissions Target A toolkit A monitoring framework A monitoring framework A pathway A goal The Climate Change Act

3 Committee on Climate Change – our role Established by the Climate Change Act 2008 to provide independent advice to Government and Parliament on: Emissions limits Annual progress Adaptation (through ASC) Established by the Climate Change Act 2008 to provide independent advice to Government and Parliament on: Emissions limits Annual progress Adaptation (through ASC) Lord Deben, Chairman Prof Lord Krebs, Chaiman ASC

4 Cost effective path to 2027 has been agreed in line with 2050 target (includes aviation and shipping) Greenhouse gas emissions The Committee will provide advice on the level of the 5 th carbon budget ( ) by the end of 2015

5 Reducing emissions – how are we doing?

6 We appear on track to meet the second carbon budget due to significant drop in emissions in 2014.

7 UK emissions fell by 8% in 2014, or 6% when adjusted for temperature – one off or permanent reduction?

8 Reducing emissions – gap to the cost-effective path

9 Further action likely to be needed to meet 4 th Carbon budget, and 2050 target Climate Change Act: “It is the duty of the Secretary of State to ensure that the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than then 1990 baseline.” 4 th carbon budget Today Note: figure is non-traded sector only, statutory duty covers trade and non-traded. DEC central scenario based on CCC modelling of DECC evidence, uncertainty around CCC scenario based on DECC uncertainty analysis.

10 Uncertainties over future policy means action will be required to remain on the cost effective path in power, buildings, transport …

11 Many low-carbon policies and funding streams are ending or have no certainty beyond next few years. This Parliament will determine the rate of progress to ProgrammeEnd date Levy Control FrameworkApril 2021 Energy Company ObligationApril 2017 Renewable Heat Incentive fundingApril 2016 Green DealEnded Climate Change Agreements2020 Car/van efficiency target (emissions per mile)2020 Electric Vehicle support2020 or earlier Local sustainable transport fund2015/16 GHG Action Plan (agriculture)2022

12 Preparing for climate change – how are we doing?

13 Employees working in areas at high likelihood of flooding could double by the 2050s Source: HR Wallingford (2014) for ASC, using Environment Agency and Office for National Statistics datasets

14 Greatest risks to supply chains are further upstream - may not be considered by firms Source: University of Leeds (2014) for ASC

15 Adaptation sales have grown faster than the economy but slower than in other countries Source: K-Matrix (2012, 2013) for BIS, World Bank (2014)

16 Recommendations

17 There are 5 key recommendations. Power sector 1 Buildings 2 Transport 3 Infrastructure 4 Land & water management 5 Ensure power sector can invest with 10-year lead time – set carbon objective, extend funding under LCF with rolling 10-year window Action to deliver low carbon heat and energy efficiency, while addressing flood and heat risks Maintain up-front support for electric vehicles and establish stretching 2030 emissions target Invest in infrastructure to support emissions reduction and to improve resilience to risks Preserve fertility of soils and condition of farms in face of opportunities and risks, while supporting carbon ‘sinks’ like peat and forests May 2016 May 2017 July 2016

18 Thank you