Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher

Iraq: Late 2006 Democrats win back House of Representatives and Senate Resignation of SecDef Rumsfeld, replaced with “pragmatist” Robert Gates Much debate within Bush administration about new policy in Iraq Bush approval on Iraq at 30%

Iraq: 2007 President Bush announces “surge” of 30,000 additional troops Gen. Petraeus takes charge in Iraq; implements new COIN strategy 60% of Americans oppose more troops Democratic efforts to require withdrawal timetable fail to pass

Iraq: 2007 US troops peak at 170,000 in October 899 US troop deaths (highest ever) Number of factors, including surge, contributes to reduction of violence in Iraq in second half of year

Iraq: 2008 Candidate Obama promises (in vague terms) to end the occupation of Iraq March: Number of enemy-initiated attacks down by two-thirds Last of surge troops leave in July

Iraq: 2008 November: Bush admin. signs agreement (SOFA) with Maliki government for US troops to leave cities by summer 2009 and all of Iraq by end of 2011 Bush leaves office with 140,000 troops in Iraq Some measure of stability achieved Belief that some US troops may remain beyond deadline

Reasons for Better Situation Ethic cleansing reduces Sunni/Shiite violence Iran works to reduce violence of Sadr’s Mahdi army US “buys off” part of insurgency Reconstruction of Iraqi military Impact of additional US troops and new COIN strategy

Reasons for Better Situation Considerable disagreement whether or not surge “worked” Some disagreement on purpose of surge

Thomas Ricks Author of “Fiasco” and “The Gamble” Washington Post Military/defense correspondent

Iraq: 2009 President Obama takes office with 140,000 troops in Iraq; announces withdrawal of troops in March 2009 President Obama announces plan to fulfill SOFA agreement, close Guantanamo Bay Last British troops leave in July 2009 Most US troops leave Iraqi cities by July 2009

Iraq: 2010 January: 100,000 US troops March: Second parliamentary elections held August 31 signals end of “combat operations” of US troops, focus on training Iraqi troops 50,000 troops remain by September 2010

Iraq: 2011 Consistent with Bush agreement, Obama announces all US troops will leave Iraq by the end of 2011

Troop Withdrawal Reaction “ This decision will be viewed as a strategic victory for our enemies in the Middle East, especially the Iranian regime, which has worked relentlessly to ensure a full withdrawal of US troops from Iraq,”

Troop Withdrawal Reaction “President Obama’s astonishing failure to secure an orderly transition in Iraq has unnecessarily put at risk the victories that were won through the blood and sacrifice of thousands of American men and women. The unavoidable question is whether this decision is the result of a naked political calculation or simply sheer ineptitude in negotiations with the Iraqi government.”

Troop Withdrawal Reaction “I’m deeply concerned that President Obama is putting political expediency ahead of sound military and security judgment by announcing an end to troop level negotiations and a withdrawal from Iraq by year’s end. … America’s commitment to the future of Iraq is important to U.S. national security interests and should not be influenced by politics.”

Troop Withdrawal Reaction “At a time when we need troops in Iraq to secure the place against intervention by Iran and the bad actors in the region, we’re going to go into 2012 with none. It was his job, the Obama administration’s job to end this well. They failed.”

Troop Withdrawal Reaction “I think it’s an absolute disaster. We won the war in Iraq, and we’re now losing the peace.” Retired Army Gen. John Keane, advisor to Gen. Petraeus

War with Iraq: Outcome Last American troops gone by 1/1/12 US contractors and large State Dept. contingent remain (10,000+) Violence down since 2007 Two rounds of “democratic elections” through 2011 Iraqi parliament “deadlocked” since last elections

War with Iraq: Outcome Significant Iranian influence over Iraq Will Iraq deteriorate into renewed civil war? Are Iraqi military and security forces capable?

Future Scenarios for Iraq 1)Saddam 2.0 2)Renewed violence, civil war 3)Incomplete democracy, paralysis, Iranian influence 4)Real democracy

Future Scenarios for Iraq ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) OR ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) Since 2013 (or earlier)

Future of Iraq ?????