Technology Foresight Experience of the Czech Republic 1st National Foresight Exercise (2001) Kristina Kadlecikova Technology Centre AS CR ForeTech, Capacity Building Workshop Bucharest, Romania, 26 January 2004

2 Structure of This Presentation Focus = Methodology Technology Foresight Exercise (2001) –Objectives –Background Information –Methodology –Results Implementation and Follow-up

3 Objectives of the 1st Czech National Foresight Exercise To select –a limited number of „key research directions“ (national research priorities) for the new National Research Programme (NRP) To propose –a suitable management system for the NRP –rules for the NRP implementation Limited number of selected national research priorities should receive preferential funding from public resources ~ 80% of the total project-type financing available

4 Background Information Project was ordered by the Czech Government through the Ministry of Education (responsible for research) The principal reason: to define priorities for targeted research (to be financed from public funds in a focused and coordinated way) Conditions: broad participation, consensus The Project was coordinated by a consortium of the Technology Centre AS CR (principal contractor) and the Engineering Academy CR Project deadline: 30 December 2001 (the exercise was launched in December 2000)

5 Stages of the Foresight Exercise Interviews (demand side) Desk research (strategic docs, economic data, R&D expenditure) Sectoral (SWOT) analyses (experts) Panels: SWOT, development scenarios, list of important research directions, first prioritisation, voting procedure, discussion, list of key research directions, cross-cutting measures Working group: cross-thematic topics, second prioritisation, aggregation, final list of priorities of oriented research, final cross-cutting measures, recommended programme implementation and method of management Public presentation of interim results, feedback Final report to government, public presentation of final results, dissemination Appointment of the management Building Structure Identification of Sectors Addressing experts XII 2000 VI-IX 2001 X 2001 X-XI 2001 XII 2001 III-VI 2001 I-III 2001

6 Panels – 1st Czech National Foresight Exercise (2001) Social TransformationAgriculture and Food Environment Health and Pharmacy Construction, Urbanism and Housing Information Society Materials Discrete Manufacturing Machinery and Equipment Devices and Instruments Chemical Products and Processes Transport Systems Energy and Raw Materials 13 application sectors (panels) 3 cross-cutting panels 1 systemic panel Human Resources for R&D Integrated R&D Regional and International Co-operation in R&D Management and Implementation of the National Research Programme

7 Panels - cont. one of the most critical points of the project typically experts mixed background – research, industry, business, government chairperson – a respected „strategic thinker“ assisted by a secretary members recommended by important stakeholders (institutions), individual recommendations, co- nomination (for which there was not enough time) about 300 experts more closely involved (of 1000) panel members received a modest fee to compensate for travels and other expenses

8 Panels representation of sectors

9 Thematic Programme Development of Results Thematic Programmes Panels SWOT Development scenarios List of IRDs Panels First prioritisation (importance x feasibility) On-line voting procedure List of KRDs Working Group Second prioritisation Final (reduced) list of KRDs Sub-programmes Working Group Allocation of final KRDs to sub- programmes Grouping of sub- programmes into thematic programmes IRD KRD 1 st prioritisation in panels Sub- programme 2 nd prioritisation and aggregation in the WG (19) KRD allocation of KRDs grouping of sub-pgms

10 Defined Structure - principal sections: – Situation in the field (CR, Europe, world) – Anticipated trends in the CR in the next 10 years – SWOT analysis – Important Research Directions (IRD) – Selection of Key Research Directions (KRD) from IRD – KRD in the order of importance – Explanation of the order of importance, aggregation – Suggestion of cross-panel KRD – Emerging technologies and market niches – KRD – identification sheets Panel Reports

11 A Brief Evaluation Project + –full commitment of the Government as a consequence of the Government demand –clearly defined tasks –wide participation –involvement of a variety of stakeholders Project – –insufficient time (12 months) – given the task and conditions, no time for complex consensual discussions across the society, more time for setting up the panels would have been welcomed

12 Project resulted in 19 thematic and 19 cross-cutting sub- programs, 90 key research directions Implementation and management principles outlined Important by-products: interviews of ~300 industrial and service entities (a demand side), analyses of application sectors, development sector scenarios outlined General principles of the National Research Programme (NRP) based on the Project results were approved by the Czech Government in May 2002 Minor modifications in the NRP management were needed according to the new Act on Public Support to the R&D; final approval of the NRP in April 2003 Launch of the NRP: 1 January 2004 Final Summary

13 National Research Programme (NRP) on the basis of the Foresight Exercise launched in January 2004 Dominant part of the public funds allocated to „oriented“ research is to be gradually transferred to the NRP Main objectives of the NRP: - to increase performance and effectiveness of Czech research and increase its benefit for the economy and society - to concentrate funds and research capacities on a smaller number of selected issues Duration : 2004 – 2009 Implementation – NRP (1)

14 Structure of the NRP: 5 thematic and 3 cross-cutting programmes, further divided into sub-programmes (calls for projects will be published on the level of sub- programmes) Coordinator of the NRP: Ministry of Education through the Council for the NRP Management / control boards will be established on the level of each sub-programme (parallel to the financing organization) – i.e. coordination and financing will be separated Main criteria for selecting research projects: importance (for the society, economic aspects, applicability), expected benefits and quality, feasibility Implementation – NRP (2)

15 Generally - raising interest on foresight activities in “decision-making circles” (Czech Government) with the aim of embedding the foresight culture among policy-makers Preparation for the NRP II (= another round of a foresight exercise – „problem-oriented“) has been initiated by the Government) and conducted under the coordination of the Technology Centre AS CR (09/ /2004) NRP II : , NPV III to be launched in 2009 More information: Follow-up

16 Technology Centre will be running a systematic Foresight Programme (Strategic studies for R&D): - running for 5 years ( ) - financed by the Ministry of Education (responsible for research in the CR) and politically supported - the main objective: to prepare analytic and future-related infomation for decision-makers involved in shaping national research and innovation policies - main activities: development of methodology, analytic and future-related studies, training, international cooperation/coordination - mobilized funds: approx € /year - personnel: 10 people Current Situation and Future of Foresight in the CR