Evaluating Trade Policy DO YOU AGREE WITH YOUR CANDIDATE’S POSITION?

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Presentation transcript:

Evaluating Trade Policy DO YOU AGREE WITH YOUR CANDIDATE’S POSITION?

Traditional trade deals cut tariffs & quotas  Benefits of promoting free trade are well-accepted tenets of mainstream economics  But there are losers from free trade  Benefits depend on redistributing gains to share between winners and losers  Theoretically everyone is better off Income growth by income percentile across GLOBAL income distribution Source: Branko Milanovic 2013, Global Policy, Volume 4 Issue 2. May 2013.

Who benefits from TPP? Source: Petri & Brunner 2016, “The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates,” Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper #16-2, January 2016.

Traditional trade deals cut tariffs & quotas  Benefits of promoting free trade are well-accepted tenets of mainstream economics  But there are losers from free trade  Benefits depend on redistributing gains to share between winners and losers  Theoretically everyone is better off  But in reality that does not happen Income growth by income percentile across GLOBAL income distribution Source: Branko Milanovic 2013, Global Policy, Volume 4 Issue 2. May 2013.

Support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership ForUnknown/unclearAgainst BushXX ChristieXX CarsonX KasichX RubioXXX ClintonXX CruzXX FiorinaXX SandersXXX TrumpXXX

Oh by the way, it’s much more complicated than you thought…  Tariff cuts are only 12% of the benefits of the TPP  Non-tariff barriers (68%)  Also other items (20%) that are much more difficult to measure  Investor-State Dispute Settlement  Intellectual Property Protection  Labor and Environmental Standards  Geopolitical concerns (??)