FOREST THREATS Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center Forest Service Photos courtesy of Bugwood.org

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Welcome to the Eastern Threat Center! The Center is a collaborative effort among the Forest Service’s three deputy areas:  Research and Development  National Forest System  State and Private Forestry The Center is administered by the Southern Research Station (SRS) and co-located with SRS headquarters in Asheville, NC. The Center also has offices in Raleigh and Research Triangle Park, NC.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d) The Center’s mission is to “generate knowledge and tools needed to anticipate and respond to forest and associated environmental threats.” Center researchers and support staff achieve the mission by:  Predicting, detecting, and assessing environmental threats  Delivering knowledge and tools in a timely, useful, and user-friendly manner  Collaborating with federal and state government agencies, universities, and non-governmental partners.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d) Scientists conduct threats to forest health research and provide expertise concerning:  Climate variability and pollution  Loss of open space  Diseases  Invasive plants  Insects  Wildland fire  Forest Management The Center creates tools, technology, and science delivery to support multicultural forest landowners, land managers, partners, and stakeholders throughout the eastern United States.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Climate Variability and Pollution What is climate variability? “Climate varies over seasons and years instead of day-to-day like weather. Some summers are colder than others. Some years have more overall precipitation. Even though people are fairly perceptive of climate variability, it is not as noticeable as weather variability because it happens over seasons and years.” Variability-and-Climate-Change.pdf Variability-and-Climate-Change.pdf What is Pollution? Pollution is the introduction of contaminants into the natural environment that cause adverse change. Pollution can take the form of chemical substances or energy, such as noise, heat or light.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Climate Variability and Pollution  Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carrière), already declining in some areas, are projected to be eliminated from the southeast by 2100 as a result of the combined stresses of warming, air pollution, and insects.  The majority of the Nation’s pulp and timber supply is produced in the southeast, but if temperature continues to increase and precipitation becomes more variable, conditions for pine growth may begin to deteriorate. Even if regional forest productivity remains high, the center of forest productivity could shift northward into North Carolina and Virginia, causing significant economic and social impacts.  Increasing demand for water from a rapidly growing urban population, combined with increased drought frequency could result in water shortages in some areas of the Southeast.  Warmer temperature may increase decomposition of soil organic matter and emissions of CO2, reducing the potential for C sequestration.  Increased fire hazard and insect outbreaks will provide significant challenges for sustainable management of forests for timber and other uses, but may also motivate restoration of fire- tolerant longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) forests.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Climate Variability and Pollution

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Southeast Regional Climate HUB! The Southeast Regional Climate HUD (SERCH), delivers science-based information on climate variability to farmers, ranchers, and forest land managers to maintain and improve sustainability of working lands under increasing climate variability:

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Southeast Climate Variability Although not everywhere in the Southeast is warming, warming is not needed for increased climate variability, such as extreme precipitation. This increased variability has the Southeast leading the nation in billion dollar disasters.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Delivering Useful Information SERCH LIGHTS is a location-based drought alert system. Subscribers receive an alert when the drought condition for their location is expected to change, according to NOAA’s Monthly Drought Outlook. Subscribe at serch.us/lights/subscribe.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Loss of Open Space What is open space? Open space includes natural areas such as forests and grasslands, as well as working farms, ranches, and timberlands. Open space also includes parks, stream and river corridors, and other natural areas within urban and suburban areas. Open space lands may be protected or unprotected, public or private. Conversion refers to the replacement of trees with houses, buildings, lawns, and pavement. Fragmentation refers to the disturbance zone beyond the footprint of the development.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Loss of Open Space

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Loss of Open Space

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Diseases  Major Hazards – collectively, root diseases, bark beetles, and oak decline were the leading contributor to the risk of mortality in the coterminous United States, while spruce beetle was the most significant contributor in Alaska.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Diseases

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Diseases

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Insects Known - research has shown impacts of climate change on tree species are known in our region. Likely - research has linked climate change to negative impacts of pest on regional forests tree species with the degree of impact controlled by various factors such as host with restricted ranges. Not likely - little research evidence has linked climate change to negative impacts of pest on regional forests tree species and/or the pest is present outside our region. Not know - no relevant research evidence was found that linked climate change to negative impacts of pest on regional forests tree species and/or the pest is present outside our region. Forest Pest Climate Change Impact Southern Pine Beetle Dendroctonus frontalisKnown Balsam Woolly Adelgid Adelges piceaeLikely Beech Scale Cryptococcus fagisugaLikely Eastern Five-spined Engraver Ips grandicollisLikely Eastern Six-spined Engraver Ips calligraphusLikely Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Adelges tsugaeLikely Red Oak Borer Enaphalodes rufulusLikely Small Southern Pine Engraver Ips avulsusLikely Birch Leafminer Fenusa pumilaNot likely Browntail Moth Euproctis chrysorrhoeaNot likely Columbian Timber Beetle Corthylus columbianusNot likely Eastern Tent Caterpillar Malacosoma americanumNot likely Elm Leaf Beetle Pyrrhalta luteolaNot likely Erythrina Gall Wasp Quadrastichus erythrinaeNot likely Fall Webworm Hyphantria cuneaNot likely Introduced Pine Sawfly Diprion similisNot likely Nantucket Pine Tip Moth Rhyacionia frustranaNot likely Pales Weevil Hylobius palesNot likely Pear Thrips Taeniothrips inconsequensNot likely Smaller European Elm Bark Beetle Scolytus multistriatusNot likely Twolined Chestnut Borer Agrilus bilineatusNot likely Asian Longhorned Beetle Anoplophora glabripennisNot known Banded Elm Bark Beetle Scolytus schevyrewiNot known Eastern Larch Beetle Dendroctonus simplexNot known Elongate Hemlock Scale Fiorinia externaNot known Emerald Ash Borer Agrilus planipennisNot known Gypsy Moth Lymantria disparNot known

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Invasive Plants  Invasive species have been characterized as a “catastrophic wildfire in slow motion.” A species is considered invasive if it is non-native to an ecosystem, and its introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or harm to human health. Kudzu Nodding Thistle

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Invasive Plants

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Wildland Fire  Determining the sensitivity of eastern US fire regimes to climate change  Effects of prescribed burning on stream water quantity, quality, and fuel loads in a small Piedmont watershed in North Carolina  Effects of wildland fires and fuel treatment strategies on water quantity across the contiguous United States  Fire and fuel management in coast redwood  Improving fire modeling tools for the eastern United States  National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy  Quantifying large-scale patterns of forest fire occurrence

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d) The Center’s collaborative, web-based tools include: ForWarn A satellite-based national early warning system that detects forest disturbance and allows users to share and create geographically relevant maps. Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options TACCIMO is an interactive, web-based tool that integrates climate change science into land management planning decisions. Water Supply Stress Index Model WaSSI estimates impacts of global change on water supply and carbon dynamics in the United States and is being tested in Mexico and Africa.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d) Collaborative, web-based tools: Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools CRAFT is a user-friendly support system that helps natural resource managers address uncertainties inherent in land management decisions. Forecasts of Climate-Associated Shifts in Tree Species ForeCASTS maps depict future suitable habitat ranges for North American tree species under future climate scenarios and assist land management decisions.

United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d) Additional collaborative projects: National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy Center researchers are providing scientific support to the interagency comprehensive plan to guide future management and wildland fire investments. Forest Health Monitoring Annual Reports Center and university partners produce annual reports describing the health of the nation’s forests, providing land managers with current issues impacting forest resources.